I’m a 60 year old overweight diabetic with a heart condition. Iron Mike’s got nothing on me.
I thought you were a lawn gnome? Now I’m totally disappointed!
Henry has gained a year, possible better QB by mid season, and he’s playing behind a worse O-line. t saying he’s falling off the ace of the earth but he won’t be a top 5 RB in PPR.
This got a little off track. CMC will be the RB1 in PPR if he stays healthy. Personally I want that upside, but Henry and Taylor may be safer from an injury risk perspective.
And if he existed, a unicorn might be the best TE in fantasy football this year, scoring 500 points!
Henry? The 28 year old RB who is coming off a broken foot after being overused the past 2 seasons? Uh huh.
If the Titans don’t lighten Henry’s touches, he might end up in the same MASH unit with CMC. And if the Titans do lighten Henry’s workload, his value will drop to a 2nd round pick, at best.
And if they don’t lighten his touches and he stays as healthy as he has been for each of his previous five seasons, he’ll lead the league in fantasy scoring by 100 points.
Do you understand the impact of aging, combined with extreme physical stress, on the human body? Eventually, the physical processes and parts of the human body begin to break down. We saw the first one last season when Henry broke his foot. If he was 23, I might write off the broken foot as a fluke. At 28, a year beyond when most RB’s begin to face the age cliff where their performance begins to drop, Henry’s broken foot is a big flashing red light. Ignore at your own peril.
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especially with the amount of carries he’s had the last few years.
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That’s why I went with Taylor at #1. Granted in PPR McCaffery is the better option, IF he stays on the field. I know you can’t predict injuries, but I’d rather take the young back that isn’t coming off 2 seasons of injuries and will be fed the ball as his offense goes through him. Plus he will catch more balls this year from dump off Matty Ryan.
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True. And going by that logic, we would then still have to draft him as the overall RB#1 in 10 years.
Henry was an iron man, I’ll give you that. The overall volume he racked up in those 5.5 healthy years is second to none.
But he also broke down the moment the Titans increased his already high ~120 yards per game to an insane ~155 yards per game.
Now, you can dismiss that as coincidence and expect his next 5.5 years to look the same as his previous 5.5 years, before he broke his foot.
Based on that premise, yes, he would be the overall RB#1 this year, I cannot argue that. I don’t buy the premise, though. Which is why I have zero shares in Henry this year, but quite a few in Dontrell Hilliard, in deeper leagues.
The one thing that keeps me from drafting Taylor is the fact that only 1 RB in the last 15 or so years has managed two #1 seasons in a row: Todd Gurley, in 2017 and 2018 (only to then break down entirely).
And as for the dump-off passes, I expect Hines to benefit more than Taylor. In full PPR, Hines could be a FLEX RB with low-end RB2 upside this year. He is on almost all of my rosters.
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Yes Hines will get his share, but Taylor is going to be the back on the field 80% of the time.
Hines was there all last year and Taylor still ate. Nothing has changed about the offense really except the QB and the line has actually improved. Same offense and the RBs will be used the same. Hines is someone that should be rostered. and as you said, in PPR can be a flex, maybe even a RB2 depending on usage. I was going to grab him as a handcuff but I got sniped, so I took a flier on Pacheco.
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I have the #1 OVR and am only going CMC because Taylor is someone’s keeper. He makes a solid argument for Henry but I think Taylor will have a dominant 3 year stretch at this point.
He would be the first player to accomplish that in a long time, if not the first ever.
If you want to find this year’s overall RB1, as a first step you should avoid last year’s overall RB1. That helped you 11 out of 12 times in at least the last 12 years.
Then eliminate rookies and players who are beyond their rookie contract already. Success rate: 8/8 in the last 8 years.
Among the remaining players, you will find your candidate for this year’s #1 crown.
HINT: His initials are “DH.”
Name one RB in the last 15 years who became the #1 fantasy RB (PPR) and was 28 years old at the start of the season.
I won’t hold my breath.
They don’t really keep fantasy stats back this far, and I realize that rushing yardage isn’t the only factor in being the #1 fantasy RB–but it’s highly correlated. I wasn’t sure if you wanted only those who were EXACTLY 28 at the time, or anyone 28 and over, but this chart should help you identify those candidates under either interpretation.
When the candidate who is 28 this year led the league at 25, led the league at 26, and was lapping the field when he got hurt at 27, thinking he might lead the league again at 28 isn’t such a stretch.
| Year | Player | Yds | Tm |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Jonathan Taylor (22) | 1,811 | IND |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry (26) | 2,027 | TEN |
| 2019 | Derrick Henry (25) | 1,540 | TEN |
| 2018 | Ezekiel Elliott (23) | 1,434 | DAL |
| 2017 | Kareem Hunt (22) | 1,327 | KAN |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott (21) | 1,631 | DAL |
| 2015 | Adrian Peterson (30) | 1,485 | MIN |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray (26) | 1,845 | DAL |
| 2013 | LeSean McCoy (25) | 1,607 | PHI |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson (27) | 2,097 | MIN |
| 2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew (26) | 1,606 | JAX |
| 2010 | Arian Foster (24) | 1,616 | HOU |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson (23) | 2,006 | TEN |
| 2008 | Adrian Peterson (23) | 1,760 | MIN |
| 2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson+ (28) | 1,474 | SDG |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson+ (27) | 1,815 | SDG |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander (28) | 1,880 | SEA |
| 2004 | Curtis Martin+ (31) | 1,697 | NYJ |
| 2003 | Jamal Lewis (24) | 2,066 | BAL |
| 2002 | Ricky Williams (25) | 1,853 | MIA |
| 2001 | Priest Holmes (27) | 1,555 | KAN |
| 2000 | Edgerrin James+ (22) | 1,709 | IND |
| 1999 | Edgerrin James+ (21) | 1,553 | IND |
| 1998 | Terrell Davis+ (25) | 2,008 | DEN |
| 1997 | Barry Sanders+ (29) | 2,053 | DET |
| Year | Player | Yds | Tm |
| 1996 | Barry Sanders+ (28) | 1,553 | DET |
| 1995 | Emmitt Smith+ (26) | 1,773 | DAL |
| 1994 | Barry Sanders+ (26) | 1,883 | DET |
| 1993 | Emmitt Smith+ (24) | 1,486 | DAL |
| 1992 | Emmitt Smith+ (23) | 1,713 | DAL |
| 1991 | Emmitt Smith+ (22) | 1,563 | DAL |
| 1990 | Barry Sanders+ (22) | 1,304 | DET |
| 1989 | Christian Okoye (28) | 1,480 | KAN |
| 1988 | Eric Dickerson+ (28) | 1,659 | IND |
| 1987 | Charles White (29) | 1,374 | RAM |
| 1986 | Eric Dickerson+ (26) | 1,821 | RAM |
| 1985 | Marcus Allen+ (25) | 1,759 | RAI |
| 1984 | Eric Dickerson+ (24) | 2,105 | RAM |
| 1983 | Eric Dickerson+ (23) | 1,808 | RAM |
| 1982 | Freeman McNeil (23) | 786 | NYJ |
| 1981 | George Rogers (22) | 1,674 | NOR |
| 1980 | Earl Campbell+ (25) | 1,934 | HOU |
| 1979 | Earl Campbell+ (24) | 1,697 | HOU |
| 1978 | Earl Campbell+ (23) | 1,450 | HOU |
| 1977 | Walter Payton+ (23) | 1,852 | CHI |
| 1976 | O.J. Simpson+ (29) | 1,503 | BUF |
| 1975 | O.J. Simpson+ (28) | 1,817 | BUF |
| 1974 | Otis Armstrong (23) | 1,407 | DEN |
| 1973 | O.J. Simpson+ (26) | 2,003 | BUF |
| 1972 | O.J. Simpson+ (25) | 1,251 | BUF |
| Year | Player | Yds | Tm |
| 1971 | Floyd Little+ (29) | 1,133 | DEN |
| 1970 | Larry Brown (22) | 1,125 | WAS |
| 1969 | Gale Sayers+ (26) | 1,032 | CHI |
| 1969 | Dickie Post (23) | 873 | SDG |
| 1968 | Leroy Kelly+ (26) | 1,239 | CLE |
| 1968 | Paul Robinson (23) | 1,023 | CIN |
| 1967 | Jim Nance (24) | 1,216 | BOS |
| 1967 | Leroy Kelly+ (25) | 1,205 | CLE |
| 1966 | Jim Nance (23) | 1,458 | BOS |
| 1966 | Gale Sayers+ (23) | 1,231 | CHI |
| 1965 | Jim Brown+ (29) | 1,544 | CLE |
| 1965 | Paul Lowe (28) | 1,121 | SDG |
| 1964 | Jim Brown+ (28) | 1,446 | CLE |
| 1964 | Cookie Gilchrist (29) | 981 | BUF |
| 1963 | Jim Brown+ (27) | 1,863 | CLE |
| 1963 | Clem Daniels (26) | 1,099 | OAK |
| 1962 | Jim Taylor+ (26) | 1,474 | GNB |
| 1962 | Cookie Gilchrist (27) | 1,096 | BUF |
| 1961 | Jim Brown+ (25) | 1,408 | CLE |
| 1961 | Billy Cannon (24) | 948 | HOU |
| 1960 | Jim Brown+ (24) | 1,257 | CLE |
| 1960 | Abner Haynes (22) | 875 | DTX |
| 1959 | Jim Brown+ (23) | 1,329 | CLE |
| 1958 | Jim Brown+ (22) | 1,527 | CLE |
| 1957 | Jim Brown+ (21) | 942 | CLE |
| Year | Player | Yds | Tm |
| 1956 | Rick Casares (25) | 1,126 | CHI |
| 1955 | Alan Ameche (22) | 961 | BAL |
| 1954 | Joe Perry+ (27) | 1,049 | SFO |
| 1953 | Joe Perry+ (26) | 1,018 | SFO |
| 1952 | Dan Towler (24) | 894 | RAM |
| 1951 | Eddie Price (26) | 971 | NYG |
| 1950 | Marion Motley+ (30) | 810 | CLE |
| 1949 | Steve Van Buren+ (28) | 1,146 | PHI |
| 1949 | Joe Perry+ (22) | 783 | SFO |
| 1948 | Marion Motley+ (28) | 964 | CLE |
| 1948 | Steve Van Buren+ (27) | 945 | PHI |
| 1947 | Spec Sanders (29) | 1,432 | NYY |
| 1947 | Steve Van Buren+ (26) | 1,008 | PHI |
| 1946 | Spec Sanders (28) | 709 | NYY |
| 1946 | Bill Dudley+ (24) | 604 | PIT |
| 1945 | Steve Van Buren+ (24) | 832 | PHI |
| 1944 | Bill Paschal (23) | 737 | NYG |
| 1943 | Bill Paschal (22) | 572 | NYG |
| 1942 | Bill Dudley+ (20) | 696 | PIT |
| 1941 | Pug Manders (28) | 486 | BKN |
| 1940 | Whizzer White (23) | 514 | DET |
| 1939 | Bill Osmanski (23) | 699 | CHI |
| 1938 | Whizzer White (21) | 567 | PIT |
| 1937 | Cliff Battles+ (27) | 874 | WAS |
| 1936 | Tuffy Leemans+ (23) | 830 | NYG |
| 1935 | Doug Russell (24) | 499 | CRD |
| 1934 | Beattie Feathers (25) | 1,004 | CHI |
| 1933 | Jim Musick (23) | 809 | BOS |
| 1932 | Cliff Battles+ (22) | 576 | BOS |
When the candidate who saw heavy usage in 2019 and 2020 already (without being the #1 RB in PPR scoring), then saw his usage increase by 30% in 2021 and subsequently broke down mid-season is now supposed to see an equally insane usage in his 28-year season, expecting him to break down again isn’t such a stretch.
The last RB to claim the #1 spot while being 28 years at the start of the season was indeed Shaun Alexander. That was in 2005.
Even if you’re only looking for the ones who were exactly 28, you still missed Tomlinson in 2007. And then Peterson being 30 in 2015, but yeah, 30 isn’t 28, that’s true.
It’s a pretty huge stretch to expect someone who’s been injured once in their career to be injured again the very next season.
28 years or older is fine.
Peterson was the #2 RB in 2015. #1 was Devonta Freeman, in all 3 scoring variants.
Still a fantastic accomplishment for Peterson, though.
As for Tomlinson, I don’t know what your data source is. According to FantasyPros, he ran for 657 yards in 2007, as he only played 8 games that year.
He was the #1 RB in 2006, his 27 year old season. But then broke down a year later.