Having drafted Tyler Allgeier in one dynasty league, I have been following their training camp rumors. This was curious:
In addition:
In summary, Cordarelle Patterson won’t last forever, and the Falcons are looking to move on. Drafting Tyler Allgeier was a hopeful shot at doing that. Allgeier has the kind of sturdy build that HC Arthur Smith likes: 5’11" and 224 pounds, the kid has the size. Not quite Derrick Henry, but sturdy enough to last in the NFL as a pounder for a while. Regardless, he will get the chance to succeed in Atlanta.
I’m not too optimistic on Allgeier’s outlook, to be honest. He is very likely to get some opportunities early. But if Atlanta believed in him, they wouldn’t have waited until the 5th round to draft him.
I’m not saying it’s a good thing, but as a matter of fact, draft capital is an extremely important factor when it comes to long-term success in the NFL.
That doesn’t mean that late-round picks or UDFAs will never be successful. Nor that early draft capital is a guarantee for success.
But the numbers speak a clear language. Among the top 20 RBs of 2021, we have:
6 x 1st round
7 x 2nd round
5 x 3rd round
1 x 5th round (Aaron Jones)
1 x UDFA (Austin Ekeler)
Allgeier still is a tempting prospect because of the team situation. But the likely outcome is that he will play a fairly good season, and the Falcons will then spend a 3rd round pick (or earlier) on their new RB in 2023.
I’d still draft him towards the end of the second round in rookie drafts, on the odd chance that he’ll become the next Aaron Jones. But the chances are really slim.
If I have the choice, I’d prefer TDP and Brian Robinson over Allgeier. Both have inferior team situations, but at least have 3rd round draft capital to their name.