Etienne is ranked #20 and Mitchell at #22. I really like both top young talents who will get a ton of touches. If healthy I see both with top ten finishes.
Rookies Walker @ #36 and Cook @ 38 are both in very good positions and I see them with finishes around top twenty.
Good gambles are rookies Pierce @ #50 and Allgier @ #54. Both are on very needy teams and could take over #1’s for their teams. VG investments for Keepers.
ETN has top 10 potential, but is unproven. Very high ceiling, non-existent floor. Boom-or-bust player, but I’m betting on him.
Mitchell - after last season, I would be surprised if he wasn’t the lead back. But it’s the Niners were talking about. And they invested 3rd round daft capital into yet another RB. And camp talk suggests that Sermon and UDFA Jordan Mason look best. The Niners backfield is a lottery, and Mitchell just another ticket.
Ken Walker could have an RB2 rookie season, if Penny gets injured early enough.
James Cook is overrated. The ground work will be done by Singletary. Cook is a receiving back, but Josh Allen doesn’t dump the ball off all that often.
Dameon Pierce is a solid option when picked at value. He’ll probably be no more than a FLEX option. But at his ADP, that’s still value.
Tyler Allgeier - I just passed on him in a dynasty rookie draft where I have a very RB-needy team. The Falcons o-line is bad, and Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams are also still there. I hope I can get Williams in the 5th (we draft rookies and free agents in that league).
I had ETN on IR on my keeper team to have him this year.
I wasted a #7 on Sermon but got Mitchell off waivers when I found out SF wants a guy who can break one every snap as the feature back. He’ll be fine.
Agree on Walker
I liked Cook when he projected as a 6th rounder, still do.
Pierce and Allgier are keeper stashes with a decent shot later in the year.
Off topic- Wanna play some keeper league? You would be more than welcome.
You guys covered a bunch here, but here are some more:
Just using ADP:
#12 (#20 overall): Alvin Kamara. It looks like his suspension for his “altercation” in Vegas will be delayed, as his trial is being delayed until December. He only finished 10th in PPR last season, but that was during a season when the Saints lost their QB for the bulk of the season. Expect Kamara to improve on last season.
#21 (#38 overall): Breece Hall. He was the first RB drafted a for a reason, by a team with a good RB already starting. Hall is the starting RB now. Hall is an RB1.
#24 (#53 overall): AJ Dillon. While he will be sharing time with Aaron Jones, expect the Packers to turn both these guys into great RB’s, but Dillon is the real talent here. Don’t be surprised if Dillon outperforms his teammate.
#37 (#98 overall): Rhamondre Stevenson. With or without Damien Harris, Stevenson will command touches and respect. The guy is a seriously good RB, with top 5 talent, even if he doesn’t get the chance to display it in NE. But even Belichick will have to give him his due soon.
#60 (#174 overall): Brian Robinson. Will Antonio Gibson continue to dominate touches in Washington, or will Robinson steal some of his thunder? Early word on Robinson is positive. From what we saw last season, Gibson doesn’t have the build to dominate a season, but he could contribute as a role player. But if they do reinstall Gibson as the RB1, don’t be surprised if Robinson steps in when/if Gibson goes down with an injury (more when than if).
#66 (#195 overall): Zamir White. The Raiders didn’t try to pick up Josh Jacobs 5th year option, and then draft Zamir White? I think that’s no coincidence. If White can be a good RB, he can easily be their starter in 2023. Admittedly, this is more of a dynasty pick than a redraft, although White could pan out this season.
Dunno if you took note, but I selected Damien Williams as my 6th RB in that Rubik’s league, betting on the arguable MVP of Super Bowl LIV (had Mahomes not officially won it) over the 5th round rookie to get the bulk of the non-Patterson touches.
Most of y’all are treating this thread more like “Favorite Dart Throws” than “Best Draft Values.” Some 3rd string rook that gets 400 yards and 2 TDs on the year isn’t a draft value, even if you get them in the 15th round.
At least Ed included some earlier-round values and not just who’s looking good in camp and might get a shot if the starter goes down.
My current personal favorite value is probably Damien Harris–last year’s RB14 in PPR (RB8 in standard)–currently with a 72.58 ADP–pick 7.1!
And for the same price as James Cook, you can have Melvin Gordon–still a top 20ish back last season (21st PPR, 17th standard). Might his share decrease? Sure. Will it decrease to the level of the rookie Cook? Might be a while…
Got to disagree with you there. Rhamondre is clearly the better of the two RB’s in NE. Belichick is a lot of things, but not stupid.
I’ll file this under “unsubstantiated claims.”
These Alabama RBs are all beasts–Henry and both Harrises.
Watch them! Stevenson is easily better!
Well, you say Belichik isn’t stupid, but what makes him smarter this year than last, when Stevenson was on the team, but Harris was the RB8 in standard scoring?
Stevenson will have his role, like James White did, but Harris is the bruising 3-down back that can go to the house from 40 or bully it in from the 2. Belichik doesn’t typically subscribe to the standard “workhorse RB” backfield, but he’s made an exception for Harris. Stevenson’s role in the passing game is what will make Harris a top 15 RB in standard scoring, but only a top 20 RB in PPR.
It’s a new era in New England.
Disagree, Etienne and Mitchell are in the overall 40’s and around 20 spots higher than Harris.
I was mostly trying to start a few others to join in and get a bigger discussion going.
There aren’t too many active posters in this forum. Looking at the thread, I’d say we’re all you got, bro.
True but it is worth a shot to ask them.
I drafted Stenenson at 10 and believe he is the best RB in NE.
FWIW, I have both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson in my main dynasty league. I agree that Stevenson looks great, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll take over the lead in the backfield this year. Harris got the job done, so why change?
Nb: I’m not saying it will never happen. Just that I wouldn’t count on it to happen. The Patriots play a backfield where every player has a defined rule, and if there is one thing Bill Belichick won’t spend a single thought on, then it’s how that will affect our dynasty teams.
As an owner, I would be the happiest man on earth if Stevenson had his big breakout. I still keep my expectations tempered. Also because of his draft capital, or lack thereof. 90% of the top 20 RBs in 2021 were 3rd round picks or better.
There is no law preventing 4th round or later picks from becoming successful fantasy assets, and Stevenson might well be the next one to make it. But empirical evidence suggests it just doesn’t happen very often.
I applaud your effort!
I agree completely!
This is why I have to watch players play. Stats never tell the full story. If you just look at stats, Emmitt Smith was the greatest RB of all-time. You watch the games though, and you see the monster holes he ran through. (It was actually guard Larry Allen who was the greatest of all-time, but that’s another debate.)
Stevenson is a top 5 talent. If he got a 70-30 share of the carries, he’d be putting up some stats that would impress even Axel Foley.
I won’t say it’s probable. Belichick hasn’t bellcowed an RB since Corey Dillon. But even a 60-40 split would give Stevenson some good stats.
I drafted Carter at 16 but lost him in week 7 with a failed waiver stash. Also got Mitchell to replace my failed #7 in Sermon, A 4 and a 6,
Damien Harris (NE):
Consensus ADP – RB26 | 54th Overall
“Damien Harris is currently the RB26 and whilst he was very impressive last year, he was reliant on his 15 touchdowns to stay fantasy viable. This year Rhamondre Stevenson looks set to eat into the running workload and may even pass Harris in ADP soon. Harris is a good player, but relying on a player who relies on touchdowns is a situation I don’t want for my rosters. ”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
“Damien Harris’ fantasy production last season was largely because of huge touchdown numbers that are sure to regress. There’s also serious competition for touches from Rhamondre Stevenson. The duo split touches down the stretch and rumblings out of New England are that Stevenson is impressing as a pass-catcher. Give me the second-year back over Harris. ”
– Joe Serpico (Pressbox)
Was in my e mail this morning.
No surprises there. Damien Harris won’t score 15 TDs once again, and will thus not finish as a borderline RB1 in 2022.
The key question is: does that mean Rhamondre will leap into startable territory? I don’t think so. I have the two of them as RB#26 and RB#27. And that’s based on both getting around 40-45% of the volume. Last year, it was 48-42 in Harris’ favor, in the games they played.
What I wonder is: why should the Patriots stop deploying Harris? He got the job done last year. His metrics were about the same as Rhamondre’s. And his contract runs out after this season, so there is no reason not to squeeze every last yard out of his legs.
End os last season I projected Stevenson to be #1 in a trade offer. I still believe that and can see him at 70% which gives him RB 3 value with a 2 upside… JMO