One thing that drives me nuts is fantasy football “experts” completely overlooking injury histories. If a player is on IR, or even just doesn’t play a week, you get a goose egg for him. “But his upside is”, no, he doesn’t have upside. He’s worthless. If you don’t have somebody to fill in for him, you are hurting that week. And replacing “high upside” is really hard to do. So you can’t replace CMC with somebody who will likely get you 25-30 points, which is the major argument for drafting CMC.
I just saw another Twitter expert promoting CMC as a 1.01 pick. He played 10 games in the last 2 seasons, and somebody sees that as a 1.01? I want what he’s smoking, because clearly it’s good stuff, if he can see not even a half season competed as “good”. Sure, high PPR is nice, but last season it was only for 7 games. What do you do for the rest of the season? He doesn’t give us that solution.
There are several factors to predicting RB injuries, so be aware:
1. Age. Generally, 27 seems to be considered the year to start worrying. By 30, forget it.
2. Mileage. This is arguably more important than age. 370 touches in one season is considered the cut-off here. While there are cases of RB’s having more than 370 for two years in a row, I can’t recall anyone doing it for three years. Derrick Henry did it once, and proceeded to break his foot the following season. CMC did it once, and proceeded to break down the next 2 years. Two RB’s to worry about: Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris. I am only gambling on Harris because he has a slightly bigger build than Taylor, and only one pro year under his belt, plus more of his touches came on receptions.
3. History. Arguably more important than the first two factors, an injury history indicates a player is already stressing his body in this profession. It could also indicate the use of steroids, but that is more of another stress factor. Rashaad Penny is the best example here. Just look at his games played for his career: 14, 10, 3, 10. Last season, he started 6 games for the first time. He did well, but can he do it again?
I’m not saying ignore Penny, just like I wouldn’t say ignore CMC. If either of them fall far enough in a draft, I will take a chance. But I know that I will need a good substitute for them when/if they get hurt (more like when than if).