Many years ago, I was invited into a hockey fantasy league. Since I know squat about hockey, I researched the players based on the scoring stats from the league, but I also looked at injury history for the players, admittedly from only the previous season. I avoided players with significant injuries the previous year.
I won the league.
I won’t say injuries are the secret ingredient for winning every fantasy league, but I do believe they are an essential factor in evaluating fantasy players. Ignoring injuries and only looking at upside potential is the road to fantasy Hell, where you get a few good games from a player before spending the rest of the season trying to replace said player as he sits on your bench or IR or even gets dropped in redraft leagues.
I won’t say “never draft a player with an injury history”. Certainly, if you can get him on the cheap, in later rounds, you do. But you don’t waste first round picks on them. Guys like CMC and Saquon should NEVER be drafted in the first round. First round picks are for unlimited upside and very high downside. In other words, sure things. At most, you take guys like CMC in the late first round, if they drop that far.
But they won’t. Because everyone has CMC as their 1.01. Don’t be a sheep. Sheep get fleeced.