As of this year, I play almost exlusively in dynasty formats. I make a few DFS bets and still have a casual redraft league going. But 90% of my time goes into my growing number of dynasty leagues.
Still, most fantasy football sites, podcasts and other resources seem to be focused on redraft formats. And a lot of information provided from these sources hold little value to dynasty managers.
Now, if FantasyPros recommends to drop Pat Freiermuth, as he may not play anymore during this fantasy season, then, as a dynasty manager, of course I know what to make of it.
But it becomes a lot more tricky with waiver recommendations.
Sure, if you play for the fantasy championship this week and have a roster gap thanks to injuries or Covid, then you may be on the lookout for a player that holds some week 17 value, and you will care little what happens with him after that. But there’s a ton of resources out there that you can scout for input if all you need is a player for this week.
But what if you want to take the last opportunity to snag a player off the waiver wire, before it will close for the next 7-8 months?
Sure, FantasyPros has Dynasty rankings. But as far as I am concerned, they leave a lot to be desired. Many experts seem to update their rankings only every other week. And quite a few who contribute to the dynasty rankings have a pretty terrible accuracy ranking.
As a result, the dynasty rankings strike me as puzzling on several positions.
Just 2 examples: KJ Osborn, who broke out this year and may have a future with the Vikings, who will likely move on from Thielen after next year, is not even showing up on the list. Neither is Mitch Trubisky, who has a very good chance of being signed as a starter or at least a high-profile backup somewhere next year.
I recently signed up for dynastyleaguefootball.com (DLF), hoping to get better information there. And they do have articles and podcasts that look beyond the current season. Still, their weekly articles and waiver lists still seem to circle around the usual suspects, based on their outlook for this week.
As a dynasty manager, when you look at the waiver wire late in the fantasy season, you don’t necessarily look at specific players. You look at potential roles for next year.
A prominent example: Tyler Huntley. He filled in for Lamar Jackson recently, and performed spectacularly well. So well that I occasionally forgot it was not Lamar I was watching.
So he’s great, no doubt about it. But do I want to sign him to my roster and spend a keeper slot on him?
In order to make that decision, I need to know his contract situation. Huntley becomes an Exclusive Rights Free Agent (ERFA) after this season. ERFA means, he is only allowed to talk to other teams after the Ravens made him an offer (or refrained from doing so) and he turned it down. Only then, he’s allowed to negotiate with other teams.
Do I expect the Ravens to make him an offer? I do. They know what they have in him: a backup who can play the same playbook as their starter. I’m expecting them to offer Huntley well north of $1m per year.
If Huntley takes it, his fantasy value takes a big hit. As good as he is, the Ravens will not bench a healthy Lamar Jackson for him. So he will only become startable again if Lamar gets injured.
But what if Huntley doesn’t take it? Could he land a starter job anywhere else? If yes, where?
Rumor has it that the Seahawks and Russell Wilson may want to part ways this offseason. He may end up in New Orleans. The Saints also don’t have a starter for next year yet, as Jameis Winston will become a free agent. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints re-signed him. But unlike Huntley, Winston is an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA), meaning he can negotiate with as many teams as he likes.
So if he signs some place else (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Carolina…), the Saints may return the interest Russell Wilson showed them.
Which would then open up a starter position in Seattle. And Huntley would be a perfect fit there, if you ask me.
Now, this is a very long shot. But unless you have a roster full of surefire 2022 starters, why not take the risk? If Huntley is on your waiver wire now, you can scoop him up for free. If he remains on the waiver wire, and then becomes Wilson’s successor in Seattle, you will have to throw a big pile of 2022 FAAB $$$ at him in order to get him on your roster. Or spend a 1st round pick on him, if your league drafts both rookies and free agents.
So this is exactly the kind of information I’m looking for. What is the contract situation of a player? What are the chances his current team re-signs him, in case his contract runs out? What are the potential landing spots, in case they don’t? And what will the roster he ends up on look like next year?
That’s not just valuable information for potential waiver wire stashes, but also helpful for deciding which of your current players to carry over to the next season.
Contract situation, roster situation, team draft picks, expected draft strategy, team outlook for 2022 - all these are factors a dynasty manager should keep in mind.
To cut a long story short - do you have any good online resources for this type of analysis?
I know where to find contract information. I even have contract expiration dates in my own player database, along with a simple tool to project 2022 NFL rosters. But I don’t have draft picks factored in yet, nor information what a teams defense and o-line look like. Which is important when to project what positions a team will spend their picks on.
But maybe there are analysts out there who do that kind of work already, and I just don’t know them yet.
So - do you know any good dynasty sites, podcasts or analysts that are worth subscribing to?