Fantasy NOT YET Over the Hill Gang?

General
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We have a number of top NFL players who are at or exceeding their projected shelf life. Here’s a list of who’s who of the elders:

1 Ekeler- 28
2 McCaffrey- 27
4 Henry- 29
5 Chubb- 28
8 Cook- 28
9 A Jones- 29
Numbers on the left is where they finished in scoring among NFL RBs.

2 Hill- 29
3 Adams- 30
4 Diggs- 29
Kupp- 30
Lockett- 31
K Allen- 30

That is one hell of a dozen old players. Question for fantasy managers is what to do with them.

Who will tell Father Time to go to hell? Who will drop off but still very good?
Who will crash? Do we keep or add them or cut or ignore them?

Is this a Damned if we do and Damned if we don’t deal?

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I do not see a crash and burn player dozen but it could be any of them. It all depends on need and cost to have them. I added Henry and Allen for insurance and they were not pricey at all.

IF you intend to contend and can add one for a fair price I would do it.

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Ekeler: hold/sell
He started playing in the NFL rather late, and profiles as a WR as much as an RB. So he may have a year or even 2 left. Still, there’s no deniyng he’s at a critical age. Sell if you can, but don’t panic sell.

CMC: hold/sell
His injury history was never as scary as it looked at first sight. He should have 1-2 good years left, but he’s also getting riskier.

Henry: sell
He’s really old. He’s seen very high usage. He’s on the trading block. He’s with a team that doesn’t look like it’s improving. Do we really need any more warning signs?

Chubb: hold.
He’s getting older, and not any better. But he also has no competition on the team. If he stays healthy, he should see another RB1 season.

Cook: sell
His days as a Viking and as an NFL starter are numbered.

Jones: sell
I don’t see how the Packers will squeeze another good season out of him.

Hill: hold/buy
I expect him to have 2 more elite seasons. If I can get him with an age discount, I’ll not be shy buying him.

Adams: hold/sell
He’ll turn 31 this season. He came to the Raiders looking to play with his buddy Carr, who then got the boot. Maybe Adams has 1 more good season in him, but the risk is getting too big.

Diggs: hold
Like Hill, Diggs can easily have 2 more good seasons in him. He’s a more volatile asset than Tyreek, though, so I wouldn’t be looking to buy him.

Kupp: sell
He’s done. Even if he can stay healthy, the question is if his QB can. And the Rams are shadow of their former self. Thanks, but no thanks.

Lockett: drop
With JSN in town, his career is firmly over. Sell if you can. Drop if you can’t.

K Allen: sell
He’s got younger competition and that will impact his situation. Maybe he can show one last workable season, but it won’t be pretty. Sell if you can.

Bottom line: at least 8-9 of these 12 players will disappoint their fantasy owners this year. I’ll gladly pass on most of them. In redraft, none of them is a must-have. In dynasty, all of them can be sold. Some if the price is right, others at any price.

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I said much of the same last ear and they proved me wrong. Being a year older and maybe wiser, I just don’t know. I passed on Henry twice last year, you took him and he was a big part to your title.

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OT- My Dolphins are coming to Frankfurt to play the Chiefs this year Have you been to games?

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Rule of thumb with older players in dynasty leagues: You’re stuck with them until they are worthless.

In keeper leagues, you only keep them if you didn’t spend a lot of draft capital on them. If you did, toss them. See my 1st rounder spent on Dalvin Cook last year.

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It’s all a matter of price. I took Henry because he fell to the bottom of the second round, and there was no other player on the board that intrigued me. His position within the team was not questioned. The only risk was if he would stay healthy.

This year, in a similar situation, I would not take him. He’s on the trading block, and the regression / injury risk has grown bigger.

But as long as you don’t rely on them as a starter, veterans can be well worth the investment. At least 3-4 of the players from your list will play strong seasons. Maybe even 5-6.

My issue with “big names from yesteryear”, as I like to refer them to, is that they usually go very early in drafts, as most managers draft based on previous performance, rather than future expectation. In most drafts I watched last year, Henry went in the 1st. That would have been too risky for me.

In the US, yes. In Europe, no. Ticket and hotel prices are insane around these games, as are flights to London for those games.

Friends of mine went every year. I finally convinced them that, for the same money, we could fly to the US and watch a game there.

With friends, I’ve been to Green Bay (December game vs Arizona) and Seattle (vs Baltimore). On my own, I’ve been to New York (Giants vs Bills) and L.A. (Chargers vs Packers).

Next on the bucket list are visits to L.A. (to see Sofi stadium), Vegas, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. And to Buffalo, of course. My US HQ is located there, been there many times, but never made it to a Bills game.

2 Likes
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Zak, Many of those drafting will go by rankings. I think redraft has 7 elders in the top 20 and dynasty at 3. That’s reasonable as there are not enough top RBs to take their places.

In dynasty and some keeper leagues it all comes down to the same old rebuild or contend plans. A vet can make a big difference in a league outcome IF you get the right one.

OT- I was surprised to find the German weather in Nov, to be kinda mild with little freezing or snow. I have 2 friends planning a trip.

No love for Miami I see. :slight_smile:

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Miami still is my most visited city in the US. Got a good friend there, been there many times. But despite him being a Fins fan, paying Hard Rock Stadium a visit never came up.

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It is not in the same galaxy of what the Orange Bowl used to be. I just thought we could get together for beers IF you can keep up and not melt in the heat. JK