I usually try not to overtly question your sanity, but this goes beyond your typical bad advice.
He has zero depth at RB, unless you count the ghost of Zeke dunking in a TD now and then to be a reliable flex/bye week starter. Khalil Herbert may be a RB2, but that’s a welcome addition to this roster.
Parenthetically, Herbert scored more half-PPR points per game last season than Pacheco, and he wasn’t even starting then.
Likewise, when your TEs are Taysom Hill and Dawson Knox, Cole Kmet is a legitimate upgrade.
So for an up and coming 2nd year WR he gets an up and coming 2nd year WR–and half the offensive production of the Bears this year.
Based on your hunch? You have no baseline data to go by, other than his rookie season with a rookie QB. And after the Steelers’ bye, from Week 10 onward in his rookie season, Pickens was WR22 in half-PPR scoring. During the same period, Chris Olave was WR38. Yes, Olave played 2 fewer games. But in points per game, Pickens had 9.7 and Olave had 9.6. But Olave is elite and Pickens is a WR3/Flex?
I did make the trade and am content. Bears offense is pitiful but they’re filling the warm bodies I needed. Pickens outperforming Olave including Pickens bye was not something I was not expecting. Dionte Johnson probably helped that significantly.