Contrarian Views

I really like the Start Sit Assistant and who should I start tool. Most of the time I agree with their suggestions. But each week there are a handful that I must take a contrarian view on.

Damien Harris or Emmanuel Sanders | Who Should I Start? - Week 8 - PPR

Alaskan Knights 4-3-0 (3rd of 5, East) - ESPN

Harris scored in the last three games, with over 100 yards in the last two games for a total of three times this year. He will get 15-20 touches. LAC has given up second most FP to the RB position. I think NE wants to run the ball to control the clock and limit LAC possessions.

Sanders will get 3-5 catches, 50-90 yards but is unlikely to score. He has scored in two out of six games. Although Miami has given up the second most FP to WR’s, the Bills will likely have a big lead early and turn to the run. Should be a good day for Moss and Singletary.

Harris over Sanders

Kenneth Gainwell or Sterling Shepard | Who Should I Start? - Week 8 - PPR
AK Ravens 2-5-0 (3rd of 5, East) - ESPN

Kenneth Gainwell or Jerry Jeudy Who Should I Start? - Week 8 - PPR

Rogers 2 Adams 5-2 2nd - NFL

Gainwell is replacing Miles Sanders who was placed on IR and has already demonstrated his ability rushing and receiving. He’s healthy, with fresh legs, going up against a not very good Detroit defense. He’s a bit of a roll of the dice because Philadelphia is struggling on offense with play calling and QB. The question is will he get the ball enough?

Shepard will see plenty of targets if he stays in the game. He’s still listed as questionable Saturday night and doesn’t play till Monday night. If he does play, how effective will he be with his opportunities? Who to pivot to on Monday if needed?

This is the first we will see Jeudy since week one, having missed the last six games due to an ankle sprain. It’s possible he hits the field in game condition and can carry a full load. It’s more likely he’ll be limited in a game he probably won’t be needed to win.

Gainwell over Shepard or Jeudy.

Elijah Mitchell or Tyler Lockett | Who Should I Start? - Week 8 - PPR

Brady Bunch 5-2-0 1st - NFL

Lockett was boom or bust with Wilson, he’s just bust without him. He’s only had two receptions in each of the last two games for a total of 47 yards.

Mitchell will receive the bulk of rushing opportunities with Garoppolo at QB. He could have another over hundred yard plus TD day against an average Bears defense.

Mitchell over Lockett.

Congratulations and thanks for reading all the way to the end. Let me know what you think.

I agree with Harris and Mitchell. Gainwell is a bit more involved.

The problem with Gainwell is his size. 5’9" 200 lbs. That limits his rushing upside. He won’t see 30 touches in a game, ever. He may not see 20. His biggest game to-date was 11 touches.

Don’t get me wrong: The guy is incredibly efficient when he does get the ball.

I am willing to toss aside Shepard for Gainwell, mainly for health reasons. At this time, Sterling is still questionable. Shepard’s upside isn’t worth the goose egg you risk if he doesn’t play.

But Jeudy? The Broncos sat him last week cause he didn’t practice before the game. He practiced this week. He is quite ready.

I wouldn’t assume that. The Broncos look pretty awful this year. They might let Washington keep it close. Jeudy could be a factor in this game. He might be THE factor that puts them over the top.

BUT, all that said, Gainwell vs. Jeudy? Gainwell has the higher floor than Jeudy, but NOT the higher ceiling. If you look at Jeudy’s games last season, he had a couple that would blow away Gainwell. Two. That’s a very small percentage ceiling.

The odds say stick with Gainwell, especially with a Detroit matchup… But if you NEED upside, Jeudy is your lottery ticket.

Ultimately, I agree with you, but with some caveats.

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Harris 14
Mitchell 19.6
Gainwell 0

Yeah I blew the call on Gainwell. Ouch

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We all make mistakes. Shrug it off, learn from it, and move on. I make plenty of mistakes on here. No worries.

If I could consistently get two out of three of these kinds of calls right I’d be in the money. Who knew that’s how the Eagles backfield would play out.

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You just stated the key to fantasy football: Get more calls right than you get wrong. How many times do you hear the experts offer advice one week, only to have it proven miserably wrong the next? I follow @kyleyates closely, because his advice is usually spot on, but I can list all the things he’s gotten wrong too. When you stick your neck up out of the foxhole, you’re gonna get it shot off occasionally. But you can’t stay in the foxhole forever either.

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If there was a safe way to predict how football games will turn out, fantasy football (and the entire sport itself) would be terribly boring.

I posted a “bold predictions” thread before week 8, and couldn’t have been more wrong on any 4 of them. Do I feel bad? No, because nobody could foresee the Jets beating the Bengals, leading to zero garbage time that would have been required for Sam Perine to get a meaningful snap share.

Because I don’t understand why the Rams keep sending Kupp on deep routes when the game is long closed out, instead of managing his workload to make sure he’s still healthy for their playoff run.

Because there was no reason to believe both the Chiefs and the Giants would struggle terribly against the weak opposing defense.

I do frequently look back on my mistakes, to check if there was a pattern I could have noticed.

I’m 7-1 in my main dynasty league now. I’m still bothered by my week 3 loss, though, as I could have avoided it. I started Damien Harris instead of Jakobi Meyers, even though it was likely that the Patriots would trail the Saints and would have to rely more on the pass than on their run game.

Harris scored 2.1 FFP, while Meyers scored 15.9 on my bench. I lost the game by 3.4 points. That one’s on the coach…

But more often than not, I will look back on my decisions that turned out to have been wrong, only to come to the conclusion that no one could see that one coming. Shrug it off, move on.

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Exactly. otherwise I won’t notice when I’m consistently wrong about a player or team. I’ve just started actually writing these notes for myself to remember from week to week. OPP :wink: