Axe Elf's 2023 Campaign

General
21

I tried to do a mock auction on Yahoo (standard Yahoo public league half-PPR settings–1 Flex), to see if I could pull off the Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce quads, but it was a literal joke. There was one other “real person” in the draft, but he was on autodraft from the start, so it was basically just me and the bots, nominating each player in the pre-draft rankings in order, some team bidding his expected value, and sold. So the early noms were ridiculously expensive (Kelce for $56?!?) and everyone was shopping at the dollar store by the end of the 7th round.

So after eating that price on Kelce, I only had a max bid of $24 to spend on Mahomes–which obviously wasn’t enough–so the best QB I could afford was Lamar Jackson.

If I wasn’t such a Mahomes homer this year, I would axually probly LIKE this team–but in a real draft, people would have held on to their money better and I wouldn’t be getting legitimate starters for $1 and $2 later in the draft. So I still can’t wait to see if I can pull it off in a real draft.

Like I said, it’s basically a joke–I’m only putting it here because it represents Yahoo’s current pre-draft rankings, at least through the first 10 rounds or so, and that might be of value to some. After that, it got a little less predictable, but the early noms were all pretty much right down the line.

All Draft Results in nomination order

  • your team in bold

(1) Team 4 - Christian McCaffrey (SF - RB) - $64
(2) Team 9 - Justin Jefferson (Min - WR) - $62
(3) Team 4 - Ja’Marr Chase (Cin - WR) - $59
(4) Team 5 - Jonathan Taylor (Ind - RB) - $56
(5) Team 6 - Austin Ekeler (LAC - RB) - $56
(6) Axe Elf - Bijan Robinson (Atl - RB) - $57
(7) Team 3 - Saquon Barkley (NYG - RB) - $51
(8) Axe Elf - Travis Kelce (KC - TE) - $56
(9) Team 8 - Tyreek Hill (Mia - WR) - $48
(10) Axe Elf - Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR) - $52
(11) Team 4 - Josh Jacobs (LV - RB) - $48
(12) Team 3 - Nick Chubb (Cle - RB) - $47
(13) Team 2 - Stefon Diggs (Buf - WR) - $47
(14) Team 9 - CeeDee Lamb (Dal - WR) - $40
(15) Team 9 - Davante Adams (LV - WR) - $38
(16) Team 10 - Tony Pollard (Dal - RB) - $42
(17) Team 10 - Derrick Henry (Ten - RB) - $43
(18) Team 5 - Breece Hall (NYJ - RB) - $38
(19) Team 10 - Travis Etienne Jr. (Jax - RB) - $38
(20) Team 7 - A.J. Brown (Phi - WR) - $39
(21) Team 7 - Garrett Wilson (NYJ - WR) - $39
(22) Team 3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det - WR) - $32
(23) Team 2 - Rhamondre Stevenson (NE - RB) - $36
(24) Team 3 - Najee Harris (Pit - RB) - $36
(25) Team 8 - Jaylen Waddle (Mia - WR) - $31
(26) Team 7 - Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB) - $33
(27) Team 5 - Chris Olave (NO - WR) - $26
(28) Team 10 - Tee Higgins (Cin - WR) - $30
(29) Team 7 - Kenneth Walker III (Sea - RB) - $34
(30) Team 7 - DeVonta Smith (Phi - WR) - $25
(31) Team 6 - Jalen Hurts (Phi - QB) - $29
(32) Team 6 - Mark Andrews (Bal - TE) - $29
(33) Team 10 - Josh Allen (Buf - QB) - $26
(34) Team 5 - T.J. Hockenson (Min - TE) - $25
(35) Team 8 - Miles Sanders (Car - RB) - $24
(36) Team 5 - J.K. Dobbins (Bal - RB) - $26
(37) Team 8 - Aaron Jones (GB - RB) - $26
(38) Team 2 - DK Metcalf (Sea - WR) - $23
(39) Team 2 - Cam Akers (LAR - RB) - $23
(40) Team 2 - Amari Cooper (Cle - WR) - $23
(41) Axe Elf - Lamar Jackson (Bal - QB) - $21
(42) Team 9 - George Kittle (SF - TE) - $22
(43) Team 8 - Deebo Samuel (SF - WR) - $22
(44) Team 7 - Dameon Pierce (Hou - RB) - $21
(45) Team 2 - Keenan Allen (LAC - WR) - $20
(46) Team 5 - Jahmyr Gibbs (Det - RB) - $20
(47) Team 4 - Dallas Goedert (Phi - TE) - $14
(48) Team 9 - Joe Burrow (Cin - QB) - $19
(49) Team 6 - Dalvin Cook (Min - RB) - $20
(50) Team 3 - Tyler Lockett (Sea - WR) - $19
(51) Team 6 - DeAndre Hopkins (Ari - WR) - $15
(52) Team 8 - Justin Fields (Chi - QB) - $13
(53) Team 8 - Kyle Pitts (Atl - TE) - $12
(54) Team 6 - DJ Moore (Chi - WR) - $18
(55) Team 2 - Terry McLaurin (Was - WR) - $14
(56) Team 8 - David Montgomery (Det - RB) - $13
(57) Team 10 - Evan Engram (Jax - TE) - $10
(58) Team 8 - San Francisco (SF - DEF) - $2
(59) Team 6 - Joe Mixon (Cin - RB) - $15
(60) Team 6 - Drake London (Atl - WR) - $11
(61) Team 9 - Dallas (Dal - DEF) - $3
(62) Team 9 - Trevor Lawrence (Jax - QB) - $8
(63) Team 2 - Justin Herbert (LAC - QB) - $6
(64) Team 3 - Calvin Ridley (Jax - WR) - $6
(65) Team 4 - Chris Godwin (TB - WR) - $5
(66) Team 6 - New York (NYJ - DEF) - $1
(67) Team 8 - Pat Freiermuth (Pit - TE) - $4
(68) Team 8 - Justin Tucker (Bal - K) - $1
(69) Team 10 - James Conner (Ari - RB) - $3
(70) Team 10 - Brandon Aiyuk (SF - WR) - $1
(71) Team 2 - Isiah Pacheco (KC - RB) - $2
(72) Team 2 - Darren Waller (NYG - TE) - $1
(73) Team 3 - Dak Prescott (Dal - QB) - $1
(74) Axe Elf - Rachaad White (TB - RB) - $2
(75) Axe Elf - Mike Williams (LAC - WR) - $2
(76) Team 6 - Daniel Carlson (LV - K) - $1
(77) Team 7 - David Njoku (Cle - TE) - $1
(78) Team 8 - Christian Watson (GB - WR) - $1
(79) Team 9 - D’Andre Swift (Phi - RB) - $1
(80) Team 10 - Philadelphia (Phi - DEF) - $1
(81) Axe Elf - Brian Robinson (Was - RB) - $1
(82) Team 2 - Buffalo (Buf - DEF) - $1
(83) Team 3 - Chigoziem Okonkwo (Ten - TE) - $1
(84) Team 4 - Rashaad Penny (Phi - RB) - $1
(85) Team 5 - Michael Pittman Jr. (Ind - WR) - $1
(86) Team 6 - Jerry Jeudy (Den - WR) - $1
(87) Team 7 - Denver (Den - DEF) - $1
(88) Team 8 - Alvin Kamara (NO - RB) - $1
(89) Axe Elf - Damien Harris (Buf - RB) - $2
(90) Team 10 - Harrison Butker (KC - K) - $1
(91) Axe Elf - Mike Evans (TB - WR) - $1
(92) Team 2 - Tyler Bass (Buf - K) - $1
(93) Team 3 - Baltimore (Bal - DEF) - $1
(94) Team 4 - Deshaun Watson (Cle - QB) - $1
(95) Team 5 - Daniel Jones (NYG - QB) - $1
(96) Team 6 - Jamaal Williams (NO - RB) - $1
(97) Team 7 - Brett Maher (Dal - K) - $1
(98) Team 8 - Tua Tagovailoa (Mia - QB) - $1
(99) Team 9 - Khalil Herbert (Chi - RB) - $1
(100) Team 10 - Diontae Johnson (Pit - WR) - $1
(101) Axe Elf - Kadarius Toney (KC - WR) - $1
(102) Team 2 - Kirk Cousins (Min - QB) - $1
(103) Team 3 - Nick Folk (NE - K) - $1
(104) Team 4 - New England (NE - DEF) - $1
(105) Team 5 - Miami (Mia - DEF) - $1
(106) Team 6 - Geno Smith (Sea - QB) - $1
(107) Team 7 - Christian Kirk (Jax - WR) - $1
(108) Team 8 - Washington (Was - DEF) - $1
(109) Team 9 - Michael Badgley (Det - K) - $1
(110) Team 10 - Alexander Mattison (Min - RB) - $1
(111) Axe Elf - Michael Thomas (NO - WR) - $1
(112) Team 2 - Cole Kmet (Chi - TE) - $1
(113) Team 3 - Treylon Burks (Ten - WR) - $1
(114) Team 4 - Jason Myers (Sea - K) - $1
(115) Team 5 - Younghoe Koo (Atl - K) - $1
(116) Team 6 - Greg Dulcich (Den - TE) - $1
(117) Team 7 - Marquise Brown (Ari - WR) - $1
(118) Team 9 - AJ Dillon (GB - RB) - $1
(119) Team 10 - Aaron Rodgers (NYJ - QB) - $1
(120) Axe Elf - D’Onta Foreman (Chi - RB) - $1
(121) Team 2 - Kansas City (KC - DEF) - $1
(122) Team 3 - Javonte Williams (Den - RB) - $1
(123) Team 4 - James Cook (Buf - RB) - $1
(124) Team 5 - Jahan Dotson (Was - WR) - $1
(125) Team 6 - Jacksonville (Jax - DEF) - $1
(126) Team 7 - Antonio Gibson (Was - RB) - $1
(127) Team 9 - George Pickens (Pit - WR) - $1
(128) Team 10 - Dalton Kincaid (Buf - TE) - $1
(129) Axe Elf - Jerick McKinnon (KC - RB) - $1
(130) Team 3 - Jared Goff (Det - QB) - $1
(131) Team 4 - Rashod Bateman (Bal - WR) - $1
(132) Team 5 - Elijah Mitchell (SF - RB) - $1
(133) Team 7 - Anthony Richardson (Ind - QB) - $1
(134) Team 9 - Tyler Allgeier (Atl - RB) - $1
(135) Team 10 - Evan McPherson (Cin - K) - $1
(136) Axe Elf - Jameson Williams (Det - WR) - $1
(137) Team 3 - Dalton Schultz (Hou - TE) - $1
(138) Team 4 - Samaje Perine (Den - RB) - $1
(139) Team 5 - Russell Wilson (Den - QB) - $1
(140) Team 7 - Dawson Knox (Buf - TE) - $1
(141) Team 9 - Sam LaPorta (Det - TE) - $1
(142) Axe Elf - JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE - WR) - $1
(143) Team 3 - Robbie Gould (SF - K) - $1
(144) Team 4 - Mike Gesicki (NE - TE) - $1
(145) Team 5 - Tyler Higbee (LAR - TE) - $1
(146) Team 7 - Eddy Pineiro (Car - K) - $1
(147) Team 9 - Chris Boswell (Pit - K) - $1
(148) Team 4 - Derek Carr (NO - QB) - $1
(149) Team 5 - Indianapolis (Ind - DEF) - $1
(150) Team 4 - Greg Zuerlein (NYJ - K) - $1

22

I tried really hard to get into a small (single-flex) 10 team league this week so that I could try out my goal of landing Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce, but the leagues I was joining weren’t filling, and by the time I realized they weren’t going to fill, the ones I should have joined were already full. So instead, I ended up in a much bigger 12 team Superflex league, starting 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and 2 Flex (plus the Superflex).

Now normally, this would call for a much different–more patient and frugal–approach, but with 1 pt per 20 yards passing and 6 pt Pass TDs, I just can’t see anyone overcoming Mahomes in this league. So my first purchase was Mahomes for $110.

(Oh, sorry, I forgot to mention we had $400 auction bucks instead of the traditional $200, so for all the prices I list, just mentally halve them to scale them to a normal auction–so Mahomes would have cost $55 of a normal $200 budget.)

And if there is any player other than Mahomes who (barring injury) guarantees dominance at their position, especially in a full-PPR league, it’s Kelce–so I went and spent $71 on Kelce, too… and then I waited 50 picks.

I just have to laugh, because this is the EXACT OPPOSITE strategy that anyone should ever use in an auction draft–spending up to get the top QB and TE–the two positions with the most value at much lower price points–and ESPECIALLY in a Superflex league, and ESPECIALLY in a deep roster league like this where I still have 18 players to draft, and I’ve used 43% of my budget!

In the end, I wound up with Kadarius Toney as well–the ultimate Chiefs stack (Mahomes-Kelce-Toney)–that’s going to be worth like 70 points a week right there!

I SHOULD have had McKinnon, too, but I made a mistake in the late stages and blew my last $8 max bid on Devin Singletary, whom I didn’t REALLY want to win, at that point, but I just assumed that the moneybags who was bidding me up on him would go $9, since my max bid was $8 and he had plenty of cash to spare, but apparently he was just trying to force me into the dollar store, which he did. So touche; that hurt. I would have NOT had Singletary, but most likely would have had McKinnon AND Gus Edwards, to back up Dobbins, so blowing the wad on Singletary hurt. Hopefully he’ll at least win the job in Houston now…

That also forced me to take a few more “shots” at RB sleepers like Zeke/Vaughn and Hunt, and go without a K or a D, for now. I’ll just stream those anyway.

QB: Patrick Mahomes (10) $110, Kenny Pickett (6) $24, Mitch Trubisky (6) $1
RB: Najee Harris (6) $47, J.K. Dobbins (13) $43, Devin Singletary (7) $8, Kareem Hunt (?) $3, Ezekiel Elliott (?) $1, Cordarrelle Patterson (11) $1, Deuce Vaughn (7) $1
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) $47, Deebo Samuel (9) $30, Kadarius Toney (10) $7, Curtis Samuel (14) $1, Hunter Renfrow (13) $1, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (10) $1, Allen Robinson II (6) $1, DeVante Parker (11) $1
TE: Travis Kelce (10) $71, Taysom Hill (11) $1
K: TBD
DST: TBD
Remaining: $0

And now, an embarrassing lesson.

Axe Elf, along with everyone else in the league, was chatting away so furiously that at pick #12 overall in the draft, Dak Prescott sold for his nomination price of $1. Yup, nobody noticed as the timer ran down all 10 seconds without a bid, and someone got Dak for $1. In a SuperFlex league. His WRs are Jefferson, Lamb, Diggs and Wilson. (Fortunately, his other QBs are Aaron Rodgers and Will Levis, and his RBs are Tony Pollard, Damien Harris, Elijah Mitchell and Zach Charbonnet.)

Always pay attention, kids…

23

So in this, the first real league I drafted, someone decided that they needed the Jacksonville DST more than Khalil Herbert, and dropped him. I only had the 7th waiver, but I managed to use it on Herbert, as no one ahead of me placed a claim. So now I’m pretty much guaranteed the starting RB for the team that led the NFL in rushing last year, and my RB corps looks a whole lot healthier!

On the downside, I now have the 10th waiver…

I’m set for #3 tonight–hopefully a small enough roster/league to put the Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce “Quads” strategy into play… I’ll keep you posted.

24

Bah.

With Kelce going for $59 (under a $200 budget–in HALF PPR!), there was no way I could implement the plan to draft the Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce quads; naturally that Kelce price was the nonsense with which I did not engage. But I have my secret weapon Gesicki, so it’s all good.

I guess the plan in the future would be to get Kelce out as early as possible, and if I can land him for less than $40, then game on–and if not, at least I don’t have to save for him. Wish I would have known that tonight, as I had the first overall nomination. Live and learn with Axe Elf…

So this was basically a Yahoo private prize league set up exactly like a Yahoo public prize league–half PPR, 1 Flex.

Once I had Mahomes, Bijan and Kupp in hand, it was starting to look like I could add two more $20 players at RB2 and WR2–and that’s exactly what I did, on the dot–$21 for Dobbins and $19 for London. Landing Aiyuk for the relative bargain price of $5 gave me my Flex player, and left me a few dollars to pick off some depth RBs late in the draft.

This early in the offseason in a 10 team league, I’ll worry about my K and D later, after some of the questions on my roster are answered.

QB: Patrick Mahomes (10) $40
RB: Bijan Robinson (11) $55, J.K. Dobbins (13) $21, Jerick McKinnon (10) $3, Kareem Hunt (?) $2, Gus Edwards (13) $2, Devin Singletary (7) $1, Cordarrelle Patterson (11) $1
WR: Cooper Kupp (10) $47, Drake London (11) $19, Brandon Aiyuk (9) $5, Jahan Dotson (14) $1, Curtis Samuel (14) $1, John Metchie III (7) $1
TE: Mike Gesicki (11) $1
K: TBD
DST: TBD
Remaining: $0

My only real regret was not having enough to land Kadarius Toney, but he was pretty highly sought-after, for his draft position, and went for $7 when most players were going for $3 or so, which is what I was hoping to spend on him.

Ce la vie.

The quest for the perfect draft continues…

(…but I probably need to take a break for a few weeks, or I’m going to have 20 leagues again.)

25

Well, I waited two weeks.

I was axually scheduled to do my fourth draft yesterday afternoon–ON the Fourth!–but it didn’t fill in time and got moved to tonight. I was trying to find something as close to the Yahoo Public Prize leagues as possible–10 teams, standard half-PPR, 1 Flex–but in a Private Prize league so as to pay a 3% rake instead of a 10% rake. When I signed up for the draft yesterday, the only things that didn’t match those criteria were that it was a 12 team league instead of 10, and passing TDs were 6 pts instead of 4. (Well, this league also doesn’t use Kickers, but that’s kind of a fringe benefit, axually.) Then for some reason the scoring was changed today to full PPR, and QB scoring went from 1 pt per 25 yards to 1 pt per 20 yards, but passing TDs went from 6 pts to 5 pts. Meh, kind of a quarter-dozen to one, quarter-dozen to the other; I’m targeting Mahomes anyway.

Quite foolishly, I might add, as any hope of scoring the quads (Mahomes/Robinson/Kupp/Kelce) went right out the window when I was forced to pay $51 for Mahomes (and Kelce went for $50 anyway). I mean, it wasn’t THAT bad, in that Mahomes is about a 10 point per week advantage over any QB not named Allen, Burrow or Hurts in this scoring system (and Josh Allen went for $44), but it made me sweat a little.

Any lingering hint of foolishness went right out the window, though, when I literally ended up with THE EXACT starting lineup that I wanted (if I wasn’t able to get Kelce) in one of the most striking examples of the “Studs & Scrubs” auction strategies ever witnessed. I spent $193 on my starting lineup, and exactly $1 on each of my 7 bench players (one of which I will eventually have to trade in for a Defense)! I thought I was going to be in trouble when I had to use my last extra dollar to snipe Gesicki when someone else nominated him, but I literally had the perfect dollar store runout–nobody ever nominated anyone I wanted, and everyone I nominated I got for $1.

So I got the exact starting lineup I was targeting (including a KC QB/WR stack), I have the potential #1 player at each of the top three skill positions (and top 15-20 players at RB2/WR2/Flex? to boot), I covered my butt at RB by handcuffing both starters, and I poured every possible dollar into my starting lineup while mining a ton of dollar store potential–and then there’s my secret weapon Gesicki–so this was a darn near perfect 12 team PPR league auction draft. May your coffers be the richer for the ample example of Axe Elf!

QB: Patrick Mahomes (10) $51
RB: Bijan Robinson (11) $54, J.K. Dobbins (13) $19, Devin Singletary (7) $1, Kareem Hunt (?) $1, Tyler Allgeier (11) $1, Gus Edwards (13) $1
WR: Cooper Kupp (10) $47, Brandon Aiyuk (9) $13, Kadarius Toney (10) $7, Terrace Marshall Jr. (7) $1, Romeo Doubs (6) $1, John Metchie III (7) $1
TE: Mike Gesicki (11) $2
DST: TBD
Remaining: $0

Hopefully I can wait another two weeks now…

26

Are we there yet?

I can not WAIT for this season to start! I mean, I can’t wait for every season to start, but this one is different; this one is special…

Fantasy Football 101 is “Don’t Be a Homer!” There’s always that guy who has to draft his favorite team’s QB, RB, WR, and TE–and then he never makes the playoffs. And as an (almost) life-long resident of Kansas who was 7 years old when the Chiefs won their first Super Bowl, “Don’t Be a Homer!” always applied in spades to us Kansas City fans. Oh, maybe we had a couple of solid fantasy RBs along the way here and there, and Tony Gonzalez, but that was about it.

But now, with Mahomes and Kelce both pretty much locks to dominate their respective fantasy positions (barring injury), and other solid fantasy choices in Kadarius Toney and Isaiah Pacheco (and even McKinnon to some extent in PPR leagues)–people are even taking flyers on Skyy Moore and MVS–it’s the perfect time to be a Kansas City fantasy homer!

And so I am.

It’s absolutely the wrong strategy in any given year to invest a lot of draft capital in QBs and TEs–but not this year. This year you can put just about any combination of four or five legitimate starters on a team with Mahomes and Kelce and be a contender. Of course this is easier in auction drafts than snake drafts, but if you’re somewhere around the middle of the draft order, go ahead and take Kelce/Mahomes 1/2. You’ll still end up with something like Etienne/Dobbins at RB and Allen/Aiyuk/Ridley at WR. That should keep you competitive while Mahomes and Kelce are outscoring every other QB/TE combination by 15 pts per week.

I’ve always taken quite a bit of enjoyment from “doing things wrong” in fantasy football and still winning–telling everyone else my strategy, drafting a K and a D in the first two rounds, drafting my team from the FAs left over after all the other teams have drafted, etc.–so being able to “do everything wrong” this season–be a KC homer in fantasy, while at the same time spending big draft capital on a QB and a TE–will make victory taste that much more sweet.

Let’s GO!!!

27

You realize if Mahomes were to blow out a knee in the first week, your strategy would die on the vine?

28

What amazing insight! How long have you been aware of the “injuries are bad” theory in fantasy football?

Injuries are, indeed, bad.

(Pro Tip: Especially when they happen to your best players.)

So let this be a lesson to you kids–don’t draft ANYONE who will be injured this season, and especially don’t use a lot of draft capital on players who will be injured.

Thanks Ed!

29

As usual, you miss the point. If you bring too many players from one team together on your fantasy roster, and a key one such as the QB gets hurt, your entire roster suffers.

30

Dude, if Mahomes goes down, I’m done in fantasy, and I’m devastated in real life. I know and accept this. I didn’t even bother to draft his backup. I don’t even know who his backup is, now that Henne retired. It doesn’t matter. It’s Mahomes or bust. I’m betting on the guy who’s worst finish to a season as a starting QB in the NFL is an overtime loss in the AFC Championship Game, and who has shown to be a better QB on one ankle than any other QB in the NFL.

Your warnings are not only unnecessary, they’re ridiculous.

31

Nothing against drafting Mahomes. Nothing against drafting Mahomes and another piece of the KC offense, such as Kelce. But drafting all the pieces? At best you end up with mixed results, because everybody doesn’t boom every week.

32

Typically a QB/WR stack results in more boom-or-bust scoring from week to week (and the same would apply to a QB/TE stack), because the two positions are positively correlated–when one does well, the other tends to do well. Starting a RB and a receiver from the same NFL team results in more consistent scoring from week to week, because the two positions are negatively correlated–when a team has a great passing day, the running game tends to suffer, and vice-versa.

If I could start Mahomes/Pacheco/Toney/Kelce I’d be looking at an awful lot of happy weeks, and on the one or two weeks where Mahomes just isn’t himself, well, I probably wouldn’t win those weeks anyway.

So far, however, the best I’ve been able to do on one team’s starting lineup is the Mahomes/Toney/Kelce MegaStack, with MVS and former Chief Kareem Hunt on my bench, in the second league I drafted this year.

33

Toney has a long injury history. Pacheco has never been an RB1. You can do better.

34

Toney has a short career to date.

I wouldn’t start him as an RB1, but ever since the Chiefs’ bye in his rookie season, he has been a top 20 RB2, and from Week 11 on, he was RB14.

35

And spent most of it being injured.

So who is your RB1 going to be? Certainly not anyone on the Chiefs.

36

So far, it’s Bijan Robinson in 3 out of 4 leagues.

37

Finally did a Best Ball snake draft for money ($2 - lol), just out of boredom.

10 team FanDuel lineup/scoring (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/2Flex, typical half-PPR, 20 player rosters)

QB: Matthew Stafford (10) 14.04, Jimmy Garoppolo (13) 16.04, Ryan Tannehill (7) 17.07

Obviously in a 10 team league, I can wait on QBs. I have to think Tannehill took a step forward with the Hopkins signing, but his ADP doesn’t reflect that yet.

RB: Bijan Robinson (11) 1.07, Derrick Henry (7) 2.04, Cam Akers (10) 6.04, Khalil Herbert (13) 9.07, Jerick McKinnon (10) 10.04, Deuce Vaughn (7) 20.04

I don’t know why Robinson is falling so far in the first round this year, but I’m all for it. I feel like I have two of the top 5 RBs in the NFL, which allowed me to avoid hoovering up RBs in the third to fifth rounds like I am always tempted to do this year, and pay a little more attention to the WR position, resulting in a more balanced team. I like the fact that I have a couple of little mini-stacks going, with the Titans’ and Rams’ QB/RB combos; here’s hoping there’s no shortage of RB screens. As a K-State alum, Deuce is a homer pick.

WR: Calvin Ridley (9) 4.04, Keenan Allen (5) 5.07, Kadarius Toney (10) 7.07, Brandon Aiyuk (9) 8.04, Michael Thomas (11) 11.07, Jameson Williams (9) 12.04, Curtis Samuel (14) 18.04, John Metchie III (7) 19.07

I am amazed that Toney’s ADP has risen so much just in the past couple of weeks. It’s been a while since he was a double-digit round steal, but an ADP ahead of Brandon Aiyuk? I made the homer choice in the 7th, because Toney’s ADP was higher, but I was delighted to find Aiyuk still there for me around the turn, as I think he might be the more consistently productive player. Toney’s more boom or bust, which is good in Best Ball formats, but dang, a top 15 WR in the 8th round? Michael Thomas could also be a steal at ADP.

Anyway, I feel like I’m a good 4 deep at both RB and WR, with a lot of week-to-week upside behind them.

TE: Mark Andrews (13) 3.07, Cole Kmet (13) 13.07, Tyler Higbee (10) 15.07

I HATE taking a TE early, especially if it’s not Kelce, and especially in the Best Ball format, where a platoon is as good as an Ace, but I didn’t like any of the RB/WR choices within legitimate reach of my 3rd round pick, so I caved and took Andrews. All would have been perfect if I could have landed Gesicki in the 15th, but he fell a few picks before mine. He’s another player people are starting to clue into; you used to be able to draft him at pretty much any point in the draft, but now he seems to be solidly in TE2 territory (still a deal, but you have to be aware of him coming up on the player list sooner than you might have expected). I never would have expected him to be drafted before the likes of Higbee. Kinda sucks that Andrews and Kmet share a bye; hopefully Higbee will have a huge Week 13.

Back to my real (auction) drafting tomorrow evening; kind of a weird one coming up, with +1/-1 completion/incompletion, full point-per-carry and point-per-reception, and yardage bonus scoring. Stay tuned…

38

It’s really difficult to get TWO top-10 QBs in a SuperFlex auction league–especially one with QB-premium scoring–and still have a decent team behind them.

It’s also really difficult to get THREE top-10 RBs in a SuperFlex auction league–especially one with RB-premium scoring–and still have a decent team around them.

But to do BOTH of those things in the SAME SuperFlex auction league with premium QB and RB scoring? Well, your name must be Axe Elf.

Granted, it required a non-traditional scoring system–as Axe Elf is significantly better at these kinds of fantasy football Rubik’s cubes than your typical player–but still. Here are the deets on the stats:

Completed Pass: 1 pt
Incomplete Pass: -1 pt
Passing Yards: 25 yards per pt, 1 pt at 300 yds, 2 pts at 350 yds, 3 pts at 400 yds
Passing TD: 4 pts
Interception: -1 pt
Pick Six Thrown: -4 pts
40+ Yard Completion: 1 pt
40+ Yard TD Pass: 2 pts
Passing 1st Down: 1 pt

Rushing Attempt: 1 pt
Rushing Yards: 10 yards per pt, 1 pt at 100 yds, 2 pts at 150 yards, 3 pts at 200 yds
Rushing TD: 6 pts
40+ Yard Run: 1 pt
40+ yard TD Run: 2 pts
Rushing 1st Down: 1 pt

Reception: 1 pt
Receiving Yards: 10 yards per pt, 1 pt at 100 yds, 2 pts at 150 yards, 3 pts at 200 yds
Receiving TD: 6 pts
40+ Yard Reception: 1 pt
40+ Yard TD Reception: 2 pts
Receiving 1st Down: 1 pt

Kick/Punt Return TD: 6 pts
Offensive Fumble Return TD: 6 pts
2 Pt Conversion: 2 pts
Fumble Lost: -2 pts

Kickers get typical 3/4/5 FG-1 PAT scoring, with -3/-2/-1 for missed FGs inside 20/30/40 yards (but nothing for a missed PAT, for some reason), so they’re even less valuable than usual–there were only 2 points per week difference (35 total points) between the #20 K and the #1 K in the league last year–so streaming is the way to go here.

Defensive scoring is a little inflated, due to extra 1 pt bonuses for 4th down stops, tackles for loss, and 3-and-outs forced–in addition to all the typical DST scoring categories (including scales for points allowed and yards allowed). So Defenses score about twice as many points as Kickers–but again, the difference between the #5 DST and the #20 DST last year was about 3 pts per week, so streaming seems to be the rational option here as well.

Lineup requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 SuperFlex, 1 K, 1D (6 Bench, 2 IR)

And perhaps most helpful of all, it was only a 10 team league–and a standard $200 budget.

TL;DR: Elite QBs rule in this league, followed closely by workhorse RBs. WRs, and especially TEs, are poop, relatively speaking, despite the shiny full-PPR scoring.

I went in loaded for bear and ready to execute an extreme “Studs & Scrubs” strategy–I was willing to blow most of my budget (maybe down to my last $25-$30, anyway) on Mahomes, Bijan, and Derrick Henry–and then just hope that everybody else blows their wads on QBs and RBs too, leaving a few quality WRs in the dollar store for me to plug in.

I kinda wasn’t prepared for the Mahomes feeding frenzy on the very first nomination, though. I mean, I knew he’d go for at least $40. I was hoping I could get him for less than $50. When he went north of $55, I just couldn’t bring myself to hamstring my team like that, right off the bat, so for the first time this season, I have a managed league without Patrick Mahomes as my QB.

But I had done my homework. I knew that under this scoring system last year, Geno Smith was the QB5, and Daniel Jones was the QB7 (basically with poop for WRs), so I had hoped to get one of them to pair with Mahomes–but now that Mahomes was off the table, they became my two primary QB targets. I got a little unlucky in that Daniel Jones came out early, with the 15th nomination, so I ended up paying the 10th-highest price for a QB for Jones at $34. QBs continued to fly off the board at a furious pace, but Geno Smith lasted three more rounds, until nomination #45, where I got him for $28, the 12th-highest price paid for a QB. Other QBs going in that round were Deshaun Watson at $36 and Russell Wilson at $27.

Essentially, I got both my top 10 QBs for the price of Mahomes.

My own nomination in the first round at #6 (waivers reverse draft order–woohoo!) was Rhamondre Stevenson, which turned to be a genius nom in retrospect. Stevenson, of course, is currently the most threatened by a potential Dalvin Cook signing, yet he was sold for $33–which turned out to be tied for the 8th-highest price paid for a RB in the draft–and he may not even be starting! LOL!

And it also made me feel awfully warm inside when I almost accidentally got Jonathan Taylor–a RB with one of the league’s heaviest projected workloads–for a mere $36 at the 11th nomination! I wasn’t REALLY trying to get him, but I wasn’t letting a potential top 5 RB go for less than $40, either, and then the timer ran out. BOOM! It sure helped me feel better about having to pay $34 for Daniel Jones a few picks later.

Down to a max bid of $117… Is it possible I could still land both Bijan and Henry–and still get a viable QB2 at the prices I’m seeing?? Nailbiting time for the next 25 noms… and then Bijan comes up–and I land him for $41. Still a very fair price, in my opinion. I land Geno four noms later, and I’m down to a max bid of $50. Enough to get Henry?

Barely. I didn’t have to wait long; Henry was nominated six players after Geno, but someone with a max bid in the $70s was countering my every bid, and as we climbed into the $40s, I began to get scared. But at $46, the timer ran down, and I walked away having paid the 2nd-highest price for a RB in the draft (McCaffrey went for $54), the absolute picture of an ironman workhorse at the position for the past five years anchoring my team, and a max bid of $5–and I still don’t have any WRs!

The guy asks me in the chat if I was just trying to bid him up, and I was like, “Nope, I just landed my #1 target!”

So that would be the “Studs” portion of the “Studs & Scrubs” strategy. I now have top 10 players (and maybe even a couple top 5 RBs) at 5 of my 8 starting skill positions. Now for the “Scrubs” portion…

I drafted Henry at the 51st nomination. I waited almost that number of nominations again until I bid on another player–landing Desmond Ridder at the 98th nomination for a token $2–and another 20 players until, by some miracle, I was able to secure the services of Brandon Aiyuk at the 120th nomination by throwing my full $4 max bid at him–and it stuck!

My next two nominations were TEs. Well, my next THREE nominations were TEs, axually, because my first nom was Mike Gesicki, and the fool who paid $58 for Mahomes and also foolishly paid $36 for Kelce sniped him from me for $2. Go figure. This guy also spent $5 total on his K/D starters (Evan McPherson $3, Buffalo Bills $2, lol), so he wasn’t the brightest crayon in the box. But anyway, since I couldn’t get Gesicki, I hedged by spending the next two noms on Cole Kmet and Dalton Schultz, both of whom I landed. I can probably play matchups between the two for the course of the season.

In fact, I literally drafted half of my team from nomination #141 to nomination #160–8 players in the final 20 picks/2 rounds of the draft! Once I acquire a K and a D, I will have dollar players starting in 4 of my 10 starting positions, including TE and my WR2.

And who did I find for my WR2, you may be wondering? With the 147th nomination in the draft, I signed Diontae Johnson as my $1 WR2. So yeah, as weak as WRs are in this league, I’ll be sporting two top 20, maybe top 15 WRs to go with my stellar QBs and RBs.

But my WR options don’t stop there. I then had 6 of the final 10 picks in the draft, and they were Kadarius Toney at #152 (whom I homered over the possibly better option, Michael Thomas, who was then promptly taken at #153), and #156 through #160, who were Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Romeo Doubs, Kareem Hunt and Jaylen Warren.

I love it when a plan comes together!

One of the Commanders’ WRs and one of Hunt or Warren will probably be cut to sign a K and a D when the season starts, but if Najee Harris can’t make it through training camp–BOOM! Another workhorse RB in the Axe Elf stable!

To summarize:

QB: Daniel Jones (13) $34, Geno Smith (5) $28, Desmond Ridder (11) $2
RB: Derrick Henry (7) $46, Bijan Robinson (11) $41, Jonathan Taylor (11) $36, Kareem Hunt (?) $1, Jaylen Warren (6) $1
WR: Brandon Aiyuk (9) $4, Diontae Johnson (6) $1, Kadarius Toney (10) $1, Jahan Dotson (14) $1, Romeo Doubs (6) $1, Curtis Samuel (14) $1
TE: Cole Kmet (13) $1, Dalton Schultz (7) $1
K: TBD
DST: TBD
Remaining: $0

And that, my dear students, is how you perfectly execute a Studs & Scrubs strategy in an auction draft.

39

This wasn’t a good day for having Dobbins as my RB2 in 3 out of 5 leagues, with the Ravens placing him on the Active-PUP to start camp–and simultaneously signing Melvin Gordon.

In two of those leagues, I also have Gus Edwards, so I’m not TOO concerned about them, but I had no backup in the other, so I dropped Hunter Renfrow and snapped up Gordon. Hopefully it’s an overreaction on my part, as Dobbins remains eligible to practice or play at any point in the preseason, and he had some kind of “soft tissue injury” in OTAs, so they’re probably just easing him back in–but it looks awfully concerning as an owner, given Dobbins’ virtually non-stop injury history since he’s been in the league.

I also snapped up James Robinson for Cordarrelle Patterson in that league, and in two others–so go on Barkley, HOLD OUT!!! lol

40

Quick little 1 dollar 10 team half-PPR Best Ball team from the #9 slot on FanDuel, illustrating just how hard people are jumping on WRs early–and letting RBs fall through the cracks.

QB: Daniel Jones (13) 12.02, Sam Howell (14) 15.09, Desmond Ridder (11) 16.02

I wasn’t really targeting Howell; I actually wanted Derek Carr there for the Saints mega-stack (with Olave and Thomas), but it was not to be. Instead I have Curtis Samuel to go with Howell (lol), and the Ridder/Bijan/London mega-stack from Atlanta.

RB: Bijan Robinson (11) 1.09, Derrick Henry (7) 2.02, Josh Jacobs (13) 3.09, Najee Harris (6) 4.02, Isiah Pacheco (10) 8.02, Deuce Vaughn (7) 19.09

If my draftmates are going to give them to me, I’m going to take them–but goodness! Over the second half of the 2022 season in half-PPR scoring, Jacobs was RB2, Harris was RB4, Henry was RB5, and Pacheco was RB14–and I have to figure that barring injury, Bijan is going to be another top 10 RB–so FIVE top 15 RBs on my team? Fuhgeddaboudit. Vaughn is a Best Ball cheat code–but it’s going to be tough for him to ever break into this starting lineup!

WR: Chris Olave (11) 5.09, Kadarius Toney (10) 6.02, Drake London (11) 7.09, Michael Thomas (11) 9.09, Jameson Williams (9) 10.02, Curtis Samuel (14) 17.09, John Metchie III (7) 18.02, Terrace Marshall Jr. (7) 20.02

Here at WR, I’m counting on a village to do the job of a few studs–but there are some angles. Like Olave and Thomas–one of them has to have a top 15ish game most every week, right? Toney and London should be reliable WR2/WR3 types, and any one of the final four could go off on any given week–though there will be few enough of those that they will need to work together to space out their big weeks efficiently. And for the most part, I’ll only need 2-3 good WR scores each week, with those RBs likely hogging up Flex slots.

TE: Dalton Schultz (7) 11.09, Cole Kmet (13) 13.09, Mike Gesicki (11) 14.02

I think this is the perfect little package of three top 10 TEs to work together on a Best Ball team, with Gesicki being a surprise top 5 candidate.

I’ll be down 5 flex options in Week 11, including 3 of my top 4 WRs, my first round pick, and who I consider to be my best TE, but that’s the only real bye week bottleneck. I’ll also be down 5 flex options in Week 7, but three of those will be Deuce Vaughn, John Metchie III, and Terrace Marshall Jr., so it won’t hurt as much.