Axe Elf's 2023 Campaign

General
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I wish I could do some mock auction drafts, but I don’t really feel like pouring 2-3 hours into a team that disappears as soon as I draft it, so I popped the 2023 cherry on a typical 10-team snake mock (Yahoo Half-PPR).

I chose the #3 slot, hoping I could still get Bijan at #3 and have some shot at still getting a top talent in the 2nd round, like Derrick Henry, but when Bijan went #2 and Henry fell one slot before my 2.08 pick, the team turned out a whole lot different than I had imagined it would going in–but I still kind of like it.

Although Jefferson is carrying the higher ADP, and I could have drafted him at #3, I lean slightly toward Chase this year. Jefferson has a late Week 13 bye this year, and I’d hate to be certain to be deprived of my first-round pick in a critical late-season game. Besides, even though Jefferson has a couple of favorable defensive matchups in Weeks 16 & 17 (Detroit & Green Bay), Jefferson got kind of shut down during the last couple weeks of the season last year (loved Jefferson’s 1 for 15 outing in last year’s Championship Game), and I don’t want THAT happening again, either. Chase, on the other hand, will be at Kansas City for this year’s fantasy championship week, and Chase has historically done well against KC.

After I missed Henry in the 2nd, I considered reaching around the turn for Najee Harris, but I went ahead and scooped Mahomes at that point, and still got Harris around the turn at 3.03.

I played it pretty straight, drafting the full complement of K and DST and backup QB/TE positions, none of which I would have drafted if this were a real league, but at this point I was basically just learning who was still available in the later rounds. I like the Washington D for all the high draft picks on their D-line, but also for the late bye–just hold onto them until some other decent defense has their bye, then swap them out for the rest of the season. (They also get Denver, Arizona and Chicago in the first five weeks.)

QB: Patrick Mahomes (10) 2.08, Daniel Jones (13) 10.08
RB: Najee Harris (6) 3.03, J.K. Dobbins (13) 4.08, Isiah Pacheco (10) 6.08, Khalil Herbert (13) 9.03
WR: Ja’Marr Chase (7) 1.03, Deebo Samuel (9) 5.03, Mike Williams (5) 7.03, Diontae Johnson (6) 8.08, Kadarius Toney (10) 11.03
TE: Cole Kmet (13) 12.08, Dalton Schultz (7) 13.03
K: Younghoe Koo (11) 14.08
DST: Washington Commanders (14) 15.03

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Let me be the first to say: You drafted two good QB’s? Are you feeling ill? I thought you HATED QB’s?

Other than that, after Najee, your RB depth falls off a cliff.

Your WR depth is iffy at best.

Your TE’s and K are good, but the Commanders DST? Your suggestion to swap them out is probably a good one.

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Historically, Axe Elf has been one to content himself with cheap fantasy QBs, but when your home town team for the past 60 years now has the best QB anyone has ever seen–in real life AND in fantasy–you buy the ticket and you ride the ride.

If you’re going to fall off a cliff, a good place to land would be on a player still sporting a career average of 5.9 yards per carry despite playing through ACL recovery last year (Dobbins) and a guy who will likely be the primary RB for the team who led the NFL in rushing last season (Herbert)–I have no faith in Foreman. That may change in training camp, but for a RB4 in a mock draft in May, it’s a perfectly legitimate pick.

One could argue that McKinnon (who had more receiving TDs in 2022 than Justin Jefferson) would have been a better choice than Pacheco; but I will probably end up with several shares of both, unless one emerges in preseason. KC may be forced to rely more on their RBs this season (rushing and receiving), unless one of the young WRs steps up. Having one of them on the bench is a prudent investment–especially with Mahomes at QB.

Fair, in that Deebo, Williams and Johnson all finished between WR30 and WR40 last year–and even Chase was only WR12–but I’m expecting regression to the mean at a minimum for all of them, and probably even more than that for a couple of them. Chase, for instance, I would expect to see among the top 3 WRs in 2023, and he has a nice schedule for the fantasy championships.

Deebo will need the 49ers to settle on a QB; hopefully they can find one that can get him the ball. Williams will need to stay healthy. Johnson will need Pickett to continue to progress, but how likely is it for him to be shut out of the end zone for another season?

Toney will also need to stay healthy, but if he can do that, he has the ability to turn any play into a TD, and he could definitely step into a featured WR role for my own hometown QB–so having a Mahomes/Toney/(Pacheco or McKinnon) stack is probably something you are going to see on a lot of Axe Elf teams this season.

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Translation: You’re being a homer? I would have expected the The Mighty AxeElf to be above such trivialities, but apparently not…

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Let me repeat for the hard of thinking…

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Do I really need to pull up your past quotes about drafting QB’s? Even when I drafted Mahomes in our mock draft, you mocked me! Pot, meet kettle!

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Not at all. Let me repeat for the hard of thinking:

You drafted him at like 1.09 and called him “the obvious choice.”

LOL

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"Lil Elfie, Really glad you decided to practice drafting, as all can see you really need it. I have to question why on earth you would take shots at picks in Ed’s mock. I am reminded of “people who live in glass houses.” :slight_smile:

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Follow this thread for the whole year, and by next season, you will be able to answer questions like this yourself!

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I learned a long time ago that being confident, even arrogant and cocky can be a good thing IF you can back it up.

You cannot and are sometimes likable and sometimes annoying PITA who wants and does not want to fit in. Until you decide, practice your drafts.

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That’s the problem with axually being the best; sometimes simple self-esteem can take on the illusion of arrogance.

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…especially when someone like Elfy doesn’t have the results to back up that self-esteem, thereby making it arrogance.

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This is probly dumb of me, since I post all my thoughts and strategies here for everyone to see, but then Axe Elf has always subscribed to the Billy Jack School of Fantasy Football (I tell you what I’m going to do, and then I do it, and there’s not a dang thing you can do about it), so here goes…

If you want to join Axe Elf in his first REAL league of the season ($50, 10 team AUCTION redraft league, 1/2 PPR typical scoring, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FX/1K/1D/7BN/2IR, rolling list waivers and league votes on trades), we draft at 10pm CDT on Yahoo:

LINK

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Two slots remain, with an hour until the draft room opens…

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I remember at some point this year I said I was drafting Mahomes, Bijan, and Jefferson this year, and it wouldn’t matter who else I drafted–but I can’t be bothered to look it up and quote it.

Anyway, I decided it was time to put that theory to the test, and I checked the Private Prize League listings on Yahoo for the first time this year. I wasn’t really expecting to find an acceptable league that would be jumping off TODAY (a basic half-PPR league–without the 3 QBs and 2 TEs and 10 pts per return yard nonsense)–but there it was (see deets above)–and we filled in the last 15 minutes before the draft room opened.

Having convinced myself since the schedules were released that Chase is the better WR value compared to Jefferson this season, I roughly budgeted $150 of the $200 auction budget to accomplish the goal of landing Mahomes, Chase and Bijan ($40/$50/$60)–and it was like God guided my hand; 12 picks into the draft, my goal was accomplished–ON THE NOSE! lol

Pick #9 overall - Ja’Marr Chase. I was a little dismayed that Chase cost me $58, which put me $8 over my budget. Already. :( Jefferson had gone for $60 right before at #8, so it probably could have been even worse.

Two picks later, pick #11 overall - Bijan Robinson. Thankfully, RBs ran a little under expected value (at least mine) early on, and when McCaffrey set the market at $55 on pick #2, I figured I might get Robinson for a little less, and definitely less than the $60 I had budgeted for him. He wasn’t much less, at $54, but I’ll pay that for the potential #1 overall pick in many drafts and the potential #1 overall RB for the season.

So that left me $38 for Mahomes, and I didn’t have to wait–pick #12 overall - Patrick Mahomes. This was such an ungodly waste of money. I’d be embarrassed if it was anyone but Mahomes. BUT IT’S MAHOMES!!! (Jalen Hurts, the next-most-expensive QB later went for $26, for perspective.) I might have gotten Mahomes pretty close to that, but one other bidder stepped me up and up and up… all the way to $38, on the dot. lol Honestly, at that point, I might have bid up to $40 or even $42 just to be stubborn, but miraculously (or tragically, depending on how you look at it), I landed Mahomes for $38, completing my set of triplets for exactly $150!

It was 53 picks until I would add another player, pairing Bijan and Chase with Kenneth Walker III ($17) at RB and Drake London ($10) at WR with picks #65 and #77. Having a RB and a WR from the same NFL team on one’s fantasy team tends to promote consistency in scoring from week to week. That left me $23 to work with.

Between picks #89 and #107, I added my remaining five starters, spending $15 on Kadarius Toney ($5), Mike Gesicki ($2), Dallas D ($2) and Diontae Johnson ($6). The Johnson purchase took my last expendable dollar, leaving me only $1 for Younghoe Koo and each of my 7 bench players–so it really couldn’t have worked out any more perfectly.

QB: Patrick Mahomes (10) $38
RB: Bijan Robinson (11) $54, Kenneth Walker III (5) $17, D’Onta Foreman (13) $1, Jerick McKinnon (10) $1, Cordarrelle Patterson (11) $1
WR: Ja’Marr Chase (7) $58, Drake London (11) $10, Diontae Johnson (6) $6, Kadarius Toney (10) $5, Juju Smith-Schuster (11) $1, Adam Thielen (7) $1, John Metchie III (7) $1
TE: Mike Gesicki (11) $2, Dalton Schultz (7) $1
K: Younghoe Koo (11) $1
DST: Dallas Cowboys (7) $2
Remaining: $0

I should call the team 24 HOURS because I have so many 7/11 byes… but I think it will all work out, barring a lot of injuries.

In retrospect, this probably wasn’t the best format to try this strategy, with the 2 extra flex positions. It would be easier to pull off with just 2 starting RBs and 2 starting WRs. In fact, with Cooper Kupp going for $18 less than Chase, I’d kind of like to get into one of those leagues and see if I could pull off the Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce quads. Given these prices, it should leave me with about $10 to spend on the other 2 RB/WR starting slots before being down to dollar players.

But that would be like starting the top QB, potentially the top RB, potentially the top WR, and the top TE (by a LOT) at 4 of the 6 skill positions… hmmm… Might have to try that next…

(DISCLAIMER: Axe Elf is an experienced drafter using advanced techniques in closed draft rooms with strict safety protocols in place. Please do not spend all your auction money on three or four players when attempting to draft your own team. This goes against all that is holy in auction drafting–the waste of some $30 between Mahomes and Chase over comparable players is literally shameful–but it’s freaking MAHOMES!)

Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce. Fork yeah! I’m doing that…

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Ooo, just got my first trade offer…

I give Ja’Marr Chase;

I get Mike Evans AND Evan Engram!

My response:

lol C’mon man. You spent like $8 total on those two players, and you want the #2 overall WR who cost $58? I should literally just auto-reject every trade offer you ever submit to me in the future, but since it’s early in the offseason, I’m willing to look the other way if you don’t let it happen again.

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Looks like you did well. :+1:

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WOW! Hove you considered a diary as opposed to polluting the forum with made up fictional unsubstantiated escapades which may or may not have ever happened?

Grow a set. I have one spot left in the $20 hybrid. Join in to prove a point OR get your ass kicked. Everyone is bored with yur excuses on not playing.

Are you an Elf or an Elfen?

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Same guy today offers me Engram for Thielen. I said at least it was a fair offer, but I felt better about my TEs than I did about my WRs, so I think I’ll stand Pat. ('Cause you know, Gesicki is a Patriot.)

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Have you considered this IS my diary? It is pretty clearly titled as such, so that those who aren’t interested in Axe Elf’s 2023 Campaign can safely avoid reading anything related to his exploits.

It’s “Date Night Salary Cap (ID# 73691)” on Yahoo; if it’s important to you, you can go look it up for yourself.

There, now it’s substantiated.

What’s your excuse for not joining THIS league? I posted the link above. Of the two of us, I’m the only one that IS playing in this league, so now the excuses are on the other tongue.

You will probably have other chances, if you continue to follow my diary for notices of upcoming opportunities to measure yourself against the fantasy football yardstick that is Axe Elf.