Axe Elf's 100 Facts for the 2021 Fantasy Football Season

General
1

Every year, I look forward to Matthew Berry’s 100 Facts for the upcoming fantasy football season. I think he has done them for almost 10 years now–and they’re usually out sometime in July or August. But it looks like he’s not doing one this year, so with only a week to go until the fantasy football season begins, let me give Matthew a hand this year…

  1. In a 17 game season, a QB would have to average 353 yards and 3.5 TDs per game to reach 6000 yards and 60 TDs on the season.

  2. Patrick Mahomes averages 306 yards and 2.5 TDs per game for his career, and averaged 316 yards per game in 2020.

  3. In games played with CeeDee Lamb , Dak Prescott has averaged 371 yards per game.

  4. Over the final 8 games of 2020, the top 3 fantasy QBs were Aaron Rodgers , DeSean Watson , and Kirk Cousins .

  5. Of the QBs who have played in each of the past 3 seasons, Kirk Cousins ranks 11th with 261 yards per game.

  6. Ryan Fitzpatrick is ranked 9th on that same list, with 267 yards per game.

  7. Only 3 QBs have played every game over the past 3 seasons: Aaron Rodgers , Tom Brady , and Derek Carr .

  8. Over the final 8 games of 2020, Derek Carr was the 11th-best QB in fantasy.

  9. Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr are currently the 15th and 25th ranked QBs, respectively.

  10. Over the final 8 games of his rookie season (2019), Daniel Jones was the 6th-best QB in fantasy with Saquon Barkley in the backfield.

  11. Daniel Jones did not have Barkley in the backfield in 2020, and was the 24th-best QB in fantasy.

  12. Saquon Barkley is back in the backfield for 2021.

  13. According to PFF, Daniel Jones is the highest-rated deep passer in the NFL.

  14. The Giants made deep-ball and contested-catch specialist Kenny Golladay the 7th-highest paid WR in the league this offseason.

  15. Daniel Jones is currently the 27th ranked QB.

  16. Only 3 QBs have averaged more than 500 pass attempts over the last 3 seasons: Matt Ryan (554.7), Tom Brady (532.7) and Jared Goff (514.0).

  17. Matthew Stafford now has Goff’s job.

  18. Over his 10 healthy seasons in the NFL, Matthew Stafford has averaged 583.7 pass attempts per year.

  19. Carson Wentz averaged two (2) turnovers (interceptions and fumbles) per game in 2020, with 24 total turnovers in 12 games.

  20. The last time Jameis Winston was a regular starter for a season, he threw 30 interceptions.

  21. Brett Favre holds the NFL record for most interceptions in a career with 336. 2nd place, George Blanda , recorded some 60 fewer INTs.

  22. Ben Roethlisberger leads all active NFL QBs with 201 INTs. Favre’s record is safe for the foreseeable future.

  23. Over the previous decade with Tom Brady , the Patriots averaged 4,576 yards passing and 1,849 yards rushing per season.

  24. In 2020, without Tom Brady , the Patriots passed for 1,450 yards less (3,124) and rushed for 500 yards more (2,346) than their average for the rest of the decade.

  25. The last time the Patriots had a 1000 yard rusher was in 2016, when a bruising, between-the-tackles grinder named LeGarrette Blount posted 1,161 yards and 18 TDs.

  26. The Patriots now have a bruising, between-the-tackles grinder named Damien Harris , who carried the mail for Alabama between the regimes of Derrick Henry and Najee Harris .

  27. Patriots’ carries inside the 5 yard line last year: Cam Newton 22, Rex Burkhead 4, Damien Harris 3, Sony Michel 2, James White 1.

  28. Only Harris and White are still with the Patriots.

  29. Damien Harris was PFF’s second-highest graded RB last season.

  30. The Patriots’ offensive line is the third-highest rated in the NFL.

  31. Jonnu Smith blocked for Derrick Henry last season.

  32. Jonnu Smith is now a Patriot.

  33. Seven RBs averaged 20 or more touches per game in 2020: Dalvin Cook (25.4), Christian McCaffrey (25.3), Derrick Henry (24.8), Joe Mixon (23.3), James Robinson (20.6), Josh Jacobs (20.4) and David Montgomery (20.1).

  34. Over the last 8 weeks of 2020, J.D. McKissic scored 117.8 PPR fantasy points.

  35. Antonio Gibson scored 96.9 PPR fantasy points over the same stretch.

  36. Austin Ekeler has a career high of three (3) rushing TDs, which he achieved twice–in 2018 and 2019.

  37. Austin Ekeler scored one (1) rushing TD in 2020.

  38. Joe Mixon was the RB9 in PPR scoring last season at the time he got hurt.

  39. Mixon was 2.6 PPR fantasy points away from being the RB6 at the time he got hurt.

  40. If you throw out the one hit wonder game by Antonio Williams , Joe Mixon was the RB10 in PPR points per game at 16.6 last season at the time he got hurt.

  41. Austin Ekeler averaged 16.5 PPR points per game last season.

  42. In the first 9 games of 2020, Jonathan Taylor rushed for 428 yards (47.6 per game) and 4 TDs, and caught 22 passes for 203 yards and 0 TDs. Prorated to 16 games, he would have scored 193 fantasy points, good for RB16 in PPR (right behind his teammate, Nyheim Hines ).

  43. In the last 6 games of 2020 (he only played in 15), Jonathan Taylor rushed for 741 yards (123.5 per game) and 7 TDs, and caught 14 passes for 96 yards and 1 TD. Prorated to 16 games, he would have scored 392 fantasy points, good for RB1 in PPR ( Alvin Kamara would have been 2nd with 378 points, and Dalvin Cook third with 338).

  44. Four of the Colts’ final 6 opponents in 2020 (and their 2020 run defense ranks) were Houston, twice (32), Jacksonville (30), and Las Vegas (24)–teams that were all out of contention by Thanksgiving.

  45. The other two games at the end of 2020, against Pittsburgh (11) and Green Bay (14), were the only games in that stretch where Taylor did not score (GB) or was held to under 75 yards (PIT).

  46. 10 of the Colts’ 2021 opponents (and their 2020 run defense ranks) are Tampa Bay (1), the Rams (3), Seattle (5), San Francisco (7), Baltimore (8), the Jets (12), Miami (16), Buffalo (17) and Tennessee twice (19).

  47. The Colts’ 2-time 1000 yard rusher, Marlon Mack , did not play in 2020, but returns to share the backfield with Taylor in 2021.

  48. After being Rival’s, Scout’s and ESPN’s #1 prospect coming out of high school, Najee Harris went on to become the all-time leading rusher at noted RB factory Alabama before being drafted by the Steelers.

  49. In the five year span between 2014 and 2018, the Steelers had a top 10 RB each season, with 3 different RBs filling that role ( Le’Veon Bell , DeAngelo Williams and James Conner ). ( Le’Veon Bell was RB15 in 2013.)

  50. James Conner is reunited in Arizona this year with the same RB coach he had in Pittsburgh in 2018, James Saxon , who coached him to 1470 yards and 13 TDs.

  51. Saquon Barkley only attempted 19 rushes in 2020. He rushed for 34 positive yards, and -22 negative yards.

  52. In his best season (2018), Barkley led all NFL RBs with -117 yards lost on negative rushing plays.

  53. Barry Sanders holds the NFL record for yards lost on negative rushing plays with -1,114 yards, or -111.4 yards per season.

  54. Nick Chubb’s average finish among RBs over his three year career is RB12.

  55. Nick Chubb’s best finish among RBs over his three year career is RB8 (2019).

  56. Nick Chubb is currently being drafted as the RB8.

  57. Aaron Jones has been a top 5 RB for two consecutive years in all scoring formats.

  58. Aaron Jones is currently being drafted as the RB6.

  59. No Ravens WR averaged more than 49 receiving yards per game in 2020.

  60. The last time Sammy Watkins played with Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman (in Buffalo), he averaged 70.3 yards per game.

  61. The Ravens threw only 388 passes in 2020 (least in the NFL), and only 57% of them went to WRs.

  62. Over the past three seasons, the only 3 WRs to average 10 TDs per season are Tyreek Hill , Davante Adams , and Adam Thielen .

  63. Over the last 8 weeks of 2020, D.K. Metcalf scored 103.5 PPR fantasy points. Tyler Lockett scored 108.9 over the same stretch.

  64. Rookie CeeDee Lamb was the WR10 in PPR scoring through the first six weeks of 2020, when Dak Prescott was the QB.

  65. In his last healthy season with Detroit (2019–the best season of his career), Kenny Golladay finished as the WR9 in PPR scoring with David Blough and Jeff Driskel as his QBs for half the season.

  66. Kenny Golladay now has the highest-rated deep passer in the NFL as his QB (and a career average of 16.8 yards per catch). Since 2019 when Daniel Jones entered the league, he ranks 4th in on-target rate for deep passes.

  67. Since 2018 (minimum 30 games played), Golladay ranks 3rd in deep receptions per game, 7th in air yards per target, 8th in end zone targets per game, and 9th in receiving yards per game.

  68. From 2018 to 2019, Golladay had the second-most receiving yards in the NFL on passes targeted 20+ yards downfield (976), trailing only Tyreek Hill . Even if you include the 2020 season, in which Golladay only played 5 games, Golladay still ranks 5th in the league over the last 3 seasons.

  69. Golladay is also considered one of the best contested-ball receivers in the game, ranking second in the NFL with 43 contested catches on 79 targets.

  70. In terms of contested-catch efficiency, Golladay ranks third in the NFL with 54.4%, trailing only Mike Evans (55.9%) and Michael Thomas (55.7%).

  71. Kenny Golladay currently has an ADP in the 7th round.

  72. Robby Anderson was a top 20 WR in 2020. D.J. Moore was not. Anderson is now reunited with his QB from the Jets.

  73. Over the past five seasons, Brandin Cooks has been a 1000 yard receiver for four different QBs on four different teams. Tyrod Taylor will be his fifth QB.

  74. Brandin Cooks currently has a 9th round ADP.

  75. Between October 18 and December 20 last year, Brandon Aiyuk either scored a TD or gained 100+ yards in every game in which he appeared.

  76. Over the past 3 seasons, Travis Kelce leads all TEs averaging 9.0 TDs per season. Jared Cook is second, averaging 7.3 TDs per season, with Mark Andrews third, averaging 6.7 TDs per season.

  77. The top 5 TEs in PPR points per game in 2020 were Travis Kelce , Darren Waller , George Kittle , Mark Andrews , and C.J. Uzomah .

  78. C.J. Uzomah caught Joe Burrow’s first NFL TD pass.

  79. Since 1970, only 2 rookie TEs have caught more than 6 TDs; Junior Miller in 1980 (9), and Rob Gronkowski in 2010, (10).

  80. Since 1970, only 4 rookie TEs have reached 700 yards receiving; Evan Engram in 2017 (722), Charlie Young in 1973 (854), Keith Jackson in 1988 (869) and Jeremy Shockey in 2002 (894).

  81. A TE with 700 yards receiving and 6 TDs would earn 106 standard scoring fantasy points.

  82. In 2020, the TE5 had 108 standard scoring fantasy points, while the TE8 had 104.3.

  83. Kyle Pitts is a rookie TE, currently being drafted as the TE4-TE6.

  84. The Rams target TEs on 22% of their offensive plays.

  85. Rams’ TEs Tyler Higbee (60) and Gerald Everett (62) evenly split 122 targets last season.

  86. Gerald Everett is now with the Seahawks.

  87. Dallas Goedert (65 targets) and Zach Ertz (72 targets) each played in 11 games in 2020, finishing as the TE20 and TE35, respectively in 2020.

  88. Dallas Goedert is being drafted as the TE10.

  89. Zach Ertz is largely going undrafted.

  90. Mike Gesicki , last year’s TE6, is currently being drafted as the TE12.

  91. Drives in which there is a QB sack end in a punt 18.2% more of the time than drives in which the QB is not sacked.

  92. Drives in which there is a QB sack are 5.4% more likely to end with a fumble.

  93. Drives in which there is a QB sack are 6.4% less likely to end in a TD run, and 10.9% less likely to end in a TD pass.

  94. The Washington Football Team will have four first-round draft picks starting on their defensive line.

  95. Pittsburgh OLB T.J. Watt led the NFL with 15 sacks in 2020.

  96. The Steelers as a team led the NFL in sacks with 56 in 2020. The Rams were 2nd with 53, Philadelphia was 3rd with 49, and Arizona was tied for 4th with Tampa Bay at 48. Arizona added J.J. Watt in the offseason.

  97. The Steelers as a team were 2nd in the NFL in takeaways in 2020 with 27.

  98. The Miami Dolphins led the NFL in takeaways with 29.

  99. Matthew Berry and Axe Elf are each rostered in less than one percent of all fantasy football leagues.

  100. Axe Elf is the only one to have completed 100 Facts for the 2021 Fantasy Football Season.

2

I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings, but you’ll need a new #100. Matthew Berry beat you by some 3 hours.

3

LOL!!!

Just Googled it.

That’s hilarious, the rat bastid…

I’ve been working on this for like a week…

4

All right, fine…

  1. Since 2015, Matt Ryan has finished lower than the fantasy QB12 only once, when he was the QB15 in 2017.
5

Before someone gives me crap about it, it’s been pointed out that Russell Wilson has ALSO played all 48 games over the past 3 seasons (#7).

So I don’t have the stat department that Matthew Berry does. It was just something I read somewhere.

6

And that’s the issue with your (and Matthew Berry’s) list: stats don’t mean a lot, as long as you don’t see them in the context of the big picture.

Let’s take my favorite player whom we heavily disagree on: Austin Ekeler. Whom you recently said you wouldn’t even draft in the 4th round, because:

Now, in 2020, he only played 9 games. With a full season, he may well have gotten 3 again. Which, btw, is also what I have him down for in 2021.

But he also scored 2 receiving TDs in his shortened 2020 season. And 8 in 2019. Last I checked, these count in fantasy football, too.

Plus:

And I’ll go a step further. Had Ekeler played all 16 games, that average would have netted him 264 PPR points for the season. Which translates into RB5 in PPR formats. Even if we consider only 14.5 games (most RBs missed a game or two), He’d still have been RB8.

Aside from concerns that he might get injured again, there is no reason to believe that the 2021 Ekeler will look a lot different than the 2020 one. The Chargers o-line improved, their new coaching staff looks great.

And here are 2 more Ekeler facts for you:

In 2020, he finished 8th among RBs in targets.
Not per game. Across the season. Of which he played only 58%.

And Ekeler racked up 4.6 YPC. That’s more than James Robinson (4.5), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (4.4) or Ezekiel Elliott (4.0) had.

He’s a very efficient RB who is second to none when it comes to involvement in the passing game. It’s as if your league allowed you squeeze an extra WR4 in that RB slot.

So when a player who is good for 1400+ total yards, 8+ total TDs and 80+ receptions will fall to me in the 4th round of a (half or full) PPR draft, you will have to forgive me for taking him. Right after I stopped laughing and finished my little jig of glee.

Austin Ekeler has a career high of 3 (three) rushing TDs.
He won’t beat that record in 2021.
If healthy, he’ll finish as RB10 in half and RB6 in full PPR leagues.

7

That’s not an ISSUE with the list, that’s the POINT of the list. I didn’t go that far, but Berry usually starts his column with a Player A vs Player B description in which he uses the stats to paint a completely different picture about each of them from the one we are familiar with.

So, like Matthew, my caveat is that these are the facts; you can interpret them as you will.