Hello, I am a seasoned fantasy player. I am doing a brand new format I have never done before and was wondering if you have any advice on how to set up my draft.
I am used to PPR 1 QB leagues, for me I wait for QB as long as possible… Do you grab a QB in round one with the below rules?
NEW LEAGUE
Start : 1 QB, 7 FLEX (RB,WR,TE), 1 super flex (QB,RB,WR,TE)
6 points all tds
RB = 1 ppr
WR = .5 ppr
TE = 1.5 ppr
Thanks for any advice.
Welcome aboard!
With a QB and a superflex, and 6 point td’s, you need to draft QB’s early and often. Your first two rounds should be dedicated to getting 2 QB’s.
Beyond that, I need to know whether this is dynasty, redraft, or keeper?
thanks! it is a redraft league.
You should draft a QB early. If in round 1 depends on your draft position. If you have a late spot, and the top 5-6 QBs are gone already, I’d recommend to take a top RB or WR here.
If you pick early in round 1, or if few teams have picked a QB, I’d indeed recommend to draft a QB first, and maybe even second as well, as @edmcgon suggested.
And if you go for a non-QB first, I’d still recommend to not wait too long. Latest by round 5, you should have 2 QBs on your roster. A “zero QB” strategy absolutely does not work in SFLEX leagues
I’d also recommend to go after a 3rd QB around round 8-9. Keep in mind that, in a 12-team league, not all teams can get a 3rd QB. But you will need one for bye weeks or in case of injuries.
The reason QBs are so important in SFLEX league is because they score so many more points than RBs or WRs. In half-PPR, the average QB#25 scores as many points per game as the RB#5 or the WR#3. If you have to start a 2nd tier RB or WR on SFLEX, you will easily lose 7-8 points compared to a 2nd tier QB.
The fall-off characteristic of the QB curve is also a little different from the RB or WR curve. The QB position also sees a pretty steep drop-off after the elite tier. But while the RB and WR curve flattens after that post-elite dropoff, the QB curve keeps falling.
The difference between the #10 and #20 player on RB and WR is around 2 FFP per game.
The difference between the #10 and #20 QB is 4 FFP per game.
In other words: if you don’t get a top 10 RB or WR, you can afford to skip that position for a round, as it won’t make a huge difference if you get the RB#12 or the RB#18 in the end.
It does make a difference if you get the QB#12 or QB#18, though.
thanks for that long post, it is very helpful and appreciated !
Even if I was drafting last in the first round, and QB’s were taken all the way, I would grab two QB’s, since I’d be getting 2 of the top 13 (or 11 in a ten team draft) QB’s in the draft.
My pleasure!
One QB - probably. But I’d not miss the chance to get the best RB or WR in that situation. Yes, the drop on the QB curve is steeper than on RB/WR. But still not steep enough to compensate for the post-elite dropoff on RB/WR.
Doing the math for my half-PPR league:
Option 1: draft QB#12 + QB#13, settle for RB#10 and WR#10 on the next turn.
QB#12: 22.4
QB#13: 21.4
RB#10: 14.9
WR#10: 14.8
Total: 73.4 points per game from these 4 players.
Option 2: draft QB#12 and RB#1, settle for QB#22 and WR#10 on the next turn.
QB#12: 22.4
QB#22: 18.7
RB#1: 25.1
WR#10: 14.8
Total 80.9 points per game, 7.5 more than in scenario 1.
Option 3: draft RB#1 and WR#1, settle for QB#22 and QB#23 on the next turn.
QB#22: 18.7
QB#23: 18.5
RB#1: 25.1
WR#1: 21.3
Total 83.6 points per game, another 2.7 more than in scenario 2, and 10.2 more than in scenario 1.
I would probably still chose option 2, just as an insurance against the QB craze continuing in rounds 2 and 3. But I would not want to miss the chance on an elite RB.
The same is true in single QB leagues, if the first positions draft all RB. Yes, RB is my priority in single-QB formats. But if the elite RB prospects are all off the board, I’ll have no problems drafting a WR first. Or maybe even a QB, if I draft from the #12 spot, and 5 RBs, 5 WRs and the top TE are off the board already.
Past performance is no guaranty of future results, as the old Wall Street axiom goes. Now show me how QB 13+ have occasionally slipped into the top 12? In fact, it happens every year. In a league with 6 point td passes, I have to lean into the QB need.
Just looking at ADP, QB’s available from the 12th pick onward (assuming QB’s consume the first round): Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Matt Ryan, and Jameis Winston. Pick two of these, and you’ll do just fine.
Remember, this isn’t your typical league. 6 point td passes, where good QB’s can toss 30 in a season, easily makes the QB the most valuable player. Add in superflex, and QB’s are gods.
True, but the above numbers are 5 year league averages. And the year-to-year numbers don’t vary much.
So it’s actually not difficult to project the bottom line of the RB#5 in a given year. The tricky part is to project which player will be that RB#5. 
It also happens in the other direction. You can draft your personal QB#8, and he finishes the season as QB#14, without missing any time.
If I am on the clock at #12, 11 QBs are off the board, but my personal QB#7 is still there, then it’s a different story, of course.
It is indeed worth emphasizing that the league I took above numbers from only awards 4 points per passing TD for QBs. 6 points per passing TD indeed tips the scale further towards the QB position.
That is THE most important factor in this question! Scoring is everything. When you are discussing RB’s or WR’s whose upside is close to 20 TD’s, IF they get lucky, versus QB’s whose upside is a good 30 TD’s easily, that is massive. Last season, 9 QB’s topped 30 TD’s (Brady and Stafford had over 40). On the other hand, Jonathan Taylor led the NFL with 18 rushing TD’s, while Cooper Kupp had 16 receiving TD’s. In this kind of league, draft QB’s early and often.
QBs are approximately as valuable as DSTs, so draft them accordingly. If you were to start two DSTs, you would put more importance on drafting them, but you still wouldn’t go crazy.
Hang around for a few rounds scooping up the tasty leftovers while people are scrambling for QBs, then by the middle rounds when everyone else is trying to bolster their RBs and WRs, you’ll have your pick of guys like Jameis Winston and Daniel Jones.
You didn’t say the size of the league, and you’ll have to pull the trigger a little earlier in a 12 team league than you would in a 10 team league, but hopefully you’ll get a pick in the middle of the order so you’ll be well-positioned to react to the draft flow in each round, and hopefully identify the best places to take your QBs.
It’s just not in the first few rounds.