Why mock drafts are pointless before the NFL draft

All mock drafts are pointless before the NFL draft. By that I include everything from dynasty rookie mock drafts all the way to mocks of the NFL draft itself, although both make interesting debate fodder. Yet those debates all become pointless after the rookies are “assigned” to their NFL teams in the real draft.

For example, consider RB Breece Hall, generally considered the top RB in the NFL draft. It is expected he won’t be picked until the second round, meaning most NFL teams will have a shot at him, and he could end up anywhere from Detroit to Tampa. Even the best playoff teams from last season will have a shot at him.

But consider some really bad possibilities for Breece. I read one mock draft which had Hall going to the Broncos in the third round! Imagine Hall teamed up with Javonte Williams in a nightmare RBBC for NFL defenses? It would also be a nightmare for fantasy owners of both Hall and Williams, since both are similar style RB’s who would be regularly vulturing carries and TD’s from each other. If Hall were to end up in this situation, I would no longer consider Hall a good dynasty first pick.

Remember that Breece would be entering the brutal AFC West, where the Broncos defense would need to shut down potent offenses in Kansas City, LA, and Vegas? If the defense isn’t up to the task, then the Broncos would be forced to rely on new QB Russell Wilson to engineer a shootout victory, leaving their RB’s high and dry in stats. This could be a truly ugly situation for both Hall and Williams.

This is just one example where the NFL draft is the last and most important arbiter of true rookie fantasy value, and any mock drafts that come before it are nothing more than idle speculation.

P.S. No, I don’t see Hall lasting until the third round. There are too many teams with actual RB needs that would easily pick him in the second round, and maybe even the first round. This is a good example of how mock NFL drafts are also pointless.