ETN or Dillon in a PPR league. Same question as last week! Everyone who responded advised Dillon and I agreed with the premise that you “never bet on a breakout” (reference ETN). Clearly, that backfired. So, here we are again with the same situation. ETN’s usage continues to increase as does his efficiency. Dillon has fell of the last few weeks in usage and points scored. Both are rated as flex options for week 6.
This is the week to ask this question. I would lean towards ETN here.
The only thing you have to worry about is JRob having a monster game instead. Indy’s defense has been weak against the run, so even JRob could take advantage.
This leads back to Dillon versus Jones, which is the same problem: RBBC. If you look at Dillon’s numbers all year, they seesaw. I don’t think he’s being phased out, just that the Packers are running with the hot hand, when they can. But one of their problems isn’t the running game, but rather the passing game: Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been nearly as effective as in previous seasons. This has put pressure on the running game.
To make a comparison here, look at Dallas this season, versus Green Bay. The Packers have no real alpha WR any more, now that Davante is gone. Dallas still has an alpha in Ceedee Lamb, to the point where defenses still have to respect the pass, even with Cooper Rush as QB. Because of this, defenses can’t stack the box against the run, allowing Elliot and Pollard to continue to do reasonably well. This isn’t the case in Green Bay, as Rodgers really doesn’t have anyone to throw to, and defenses can press their luck by defending against Jones/Dillon a bit more.
But here is where it comes back around: Jacksonville has even LESS of a passing game than Green Bay. While I’ll allow an argument that maybe Christian Kirk is better than Allan Lazard, don’t even try to compare him to a true alpha like Ceedee Lamb. This leaves young padawan QB Trevor Lawrence in a tougher bind than experienced jedi QB Aaron Rodgers. This is why the Jags passing game and running game are both worse, when considered in a vacuum.
But vacuums don’t happen in the NFL. In close considerations, like ETN versus Dillon, the opponent is the ultimate decider. In this case, unless Indy has suddenly got their defensive woes straightened out, I have to take ETN here as the best play.