Two Trades to Consider

I forgot to discuss a few trades I made in my newest half ppr superflex dynasty league. This was done prior to the rookie draft. Here goes!

First, I traded Deshaun Watson and a second round pick for Darren Waller, Laviska Shenault, A.J. Dillon, and Davis Mills. Admittedly, Watson is a better QB than Mills, but I managed to improve the rest of my roster and still keep a decent QB. And considering Mills’ youth, he may be around longer than Watson. If Mills turns out to be a good QB, that alone makes this deal a winner. On top of that, Dillon looks like he might be claiming the bellcow role in Green Bay soon, and I desperately needed a solid RB, as my only other bellcow RB’s were James Conner, Cordarelle Patterson (who broke down near the end of last season), and Rashaad Penny (who’s never shown the ability to stay healthy).

My second trade was giving away Justin Fields for Jameis Winston and a first round pick this year. I prefer Winston’s upside. My view was justified in the NFL draft, where New Orleans picked up WR Chris Olave, while the best Chicago did for Fields was WR Velus Jones. Even putting hindsight aside, grabbing a first round pick in this deal made it worthwhile.

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The first trade is risky. All 4 players you acquired carry some question marks. Though, to be fair, so does the player you traded away.

I really liked what Mills showed us towards the end of last season, and I’m not surprised that the Texans seem to be ready to give him a chance. But he still needs to prove himself. And it’s the Texans.

Waller’s competition for targets has increased, he could end the season anywhere between TE1 overall and somewhere in TE2 territory. I’d expect him to be a top 5 TE, but that’s not a safe bet anymore.

Dillon is a great player, but I’m hearing that “new bellcow” title ever since he entered the league. Yet so far, he’s been unstartable. And Aaron Jones is still there.

And Shenault is no more than a dart throw at this point.

Now, Watson isn’t free from risks himself. New environment, still a chance he’ll receive a ban from the league - there’s no guarantee he’ll immediately return to QB1 status. But at least the chance is there. And QB1s are the most valuable assets in SFLEX leagues.

I’m not saying I hate the trade. There is every chance that you will come out the big winner of it. But there is quite a bit of risk involved.

The second trade I like a lot better. Fields did show signs of improvement towards the end of last season. But let’s not forget that this improvement was based upon an abysmal passing performance in the first half of the season. And indeed, the Bears’ draft strategy screamed “we don’t believe in you”. Maybe Fields can turn things around, but there is every chance his days as an NFL starter could be over soon. In that case, you would have traded a dead asset away for a QB2 and a 1st round pick.

And even if Fields manages to turn things around, I don’t expect to see him far ahead of Winston. Which would still make this a solid trade. It’s very unlikely that you’ll regret this trade at the end of the season. I’d have accepted that one myself.

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Going into the season with Deshaun Watson and Justin Fields was a recipe for disaster. Trading them for more consistent players seemed the way to go.