Re-tool or Rebuild?

Dynasty/Devy Leagues
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Hi again all. Figured I would reach back out to get some outside perspective on what direction people think I should look to take this off-season.

12 team, Full PPR, (1Qb)

Qb - Wentz, Winston, Wilson (taxi)
Rb - Barkley, Mitchell, Mack, Wilson Jr., Nwangwu, Sermon (taxi), Williams (taxi)
Wr - J Jefferson, Waddle, D Smith, A Rob, Peoples-Jones, Van Jefferson
Te - Goedert, Thomas

Picks 2022 - 1.03, 1.04 & 2.04
Picks 2023 - 1st and three 2nds

2022 Draft: Do I keep both my high picks and go for (projected) 2 of Hall, Burkes, Wilson, Spiller, Walker? Or should I dangle one of them for an upgrade at a position (QB?) and move back. QBs I’ve inquired about - Lance, Prescott, Burrow, Lawrence. No price tags attached to anything yet, just preliminary chats.

Do I try to build around some solid pieces I already have, hope Barkley and A rob have bounce back seasons? Or do I blow it up and trade everyone including JJ and Waddle. Already had some interest in both of them for 2-4 first round equivalents.

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The 2022 draft class does not appear to the best one for a full rebuild. And your roster does not call for one, either.

QB: I guess Wilson is Zach, not Russell? Either way, you could use an upgrade on QB. But if Winston finds a good landing spot and Zach Wilson keeps trending in the right direction, you’ll be in pretty good shape for the moment.

Of the potential trade candidates, Lance has the highest upside, but is an unproven asset. Burrow is the safest bet, but his owner would be ill-advised to trade him away. Lawrence can be a sweet deal if the price is right. Dak is risky, as I expect the Cowboys to struggle in 2022.

RB: I wouldn’t rule out that Barkley will play a pretty strong season. You will also have the starting RB for the Niners, no matter how the pendulum will swing there. I would definitely recommend to draft an RB with your first pick, but if that rookie pick will meet the expectations, your backfield looks extremely solid.

WR: No complaints here. A strong receiver corps with mostly young receivers.

TE: Not that strong, but workable. As long as he stays healthy, Goedert should carry you through the season.

Overall, your roster is pretty well balanced, and rather young. With assets like Jefferson and Waddle on the roster, I would definitely not go for a rebuild.

One strategy I could see here is trading one of your early picks for two 2023 picks. That draft class could be stronger. Plus, you may be able to use those picks for in-season trades, in case it turns out you just need 1 player to become a contender.

You’re not in win-now mode with that roster, so if you aim for a 2023 or 2024 title, that could work out well. Or fail miserably - we’re talking fantasy football after all. :sweat_smile:

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Yeah it is Zach Wilson. My preference in order would be Burrow, Lance, Lawrence, Prescott, but will make another post if things progress there.

Yeah I wasn’t leaning rebuild, but if I wanted to I definitely have pieces that would give me pretty big returns. Thinking of dangling D Smith to see what I could get in return for him. Have a feeling Philly will draft another WR, so not sure if that helps/hinders Smiths value. See if I can get some RB depth.

Just to clarify, trade the 1.04 for a 2023 first and 2023 2nd/3rd? I’ve thought about that, but these picks are pretty high, and yeah everyone is talking about the 2023 draft but I’ve been reading that you should take the picks you know are high vs. a swap next year when you don’t know where they are. Listening to videos from DynastyFlock he has some content out on the calendar year and when things cost the most etc.

I’m open to anything though. My target is 2023/2024 contender. If I can get enough assets for a player on my current roster to give me more picks in those drafts I would be open to it.

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I wouldn’t give too much on the praise for next year’s draft class, as I hear that song for as long as I play fantasy football.

My thought was: your roster doesn’t look bad at all, but you have 2 key players who may or may not work well in 2022: Jameis Winston and Saquon Barkley.

If both of them will be top 12 on their position, and you get another good RB in the draft, your team is a contender. If both of them fail, you’ll struggle.

Drafting a QB this year does not seem to be the best idea (though you never know). So if you trade your 1.04 to a potentially good 2023 1st (plus a bonus), you may be able to trade that pick again during the season, to acquire whatever player you may need to save your season.

And if your 2022 season works well, you can ride it out and use the 2023 picks to make your team even stronger and make a strong push for the title.

Of course, trading for a top QB now would improve your situation right now. But I don’t know if you will get any of your preferred QBs for a reasonable price. Depends on the roster situation of their owners. Burrow should be out of reach, as I see him as one of the big 4 (along with Allen, Herbert and Mahomes) for years to come. I would not trade him away if I had him in dynasty.

What hinders Smith’s value is that Philly plays an RB on the QB position. I like the idea of trading him away. I like Smith’s talent, but without a QB who can actually pass, his ceiling remains limited.

You’re in a pretty good position there. You have a solid foundation and the necessary tools to fill the few roster gaps by trade or draft. 2022 could still be hit-or-miss for your team. But if you play your cards right, 2023 could be your year.

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You could start with this team and still be competitive. With two early 1st round picks, you should be golden! I would go into the draft taking the best player available in those slots, regardless of position. A QB would be good, but if you can get a top rookie RB or WR who can produce in the first year, you may want to go that route. Save TE for the second round, as most TE’s take a year to become effective (there are no TE’s like Kyle Pitts this year).

Don’t trade Jefferson or Waddle. Those guys will be mainstays for you for many years.

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Interesting update here: In keeping with the spirit of dynasty, always keeping an open mind and exploring trade opportunities.

I trade away J Jefferson

Receive: T Higgins, M Carter, 2023 First (probably top 4), a second somewhere.

Thoughts on this down-tier? Or still opposed to trading away JJ?

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An intriguing offer. If you look only at pure trade value, you’re getting a lot more than you are trading away.

But: JJ is an absolute top asset on his position. Higgins is a great WR, but not elite. Carter is a promising RB with pass-catching upside, but he’s not elite. The 2023 1st is nice, and maybe you can get an elite player with it. Maybe.

In a nutshell, you’d trade away a top asset for depth. But do you need depth? You need a strong RB, and while Carter isn’t terrible at all, there is no guarantee he’ll be an RB1. He still plays for the Jets, after all.

If you like the trade, pull the trigger. You’re getting more than fair value here.

Still, I’m not sure if I would do it. Trade value is one thing, but if you want to win a title, you need top tier players. Trading away a top asset for several solid mid-tier players may improve your trade value, but not your chances for a title.

But there is also one argument for accepting the trade: we don’t know who will throw JJ the ball in 2023. His value may decrease, depending on what the Vikings will do on QB. You may never get a better offer for him again.

Tough decision. Good luck with it. :sweat_smile:

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I like the deal. As good as JJ is, Minnesota still seems dedicated to the running game, which caps JJ’s upside. Higgins may not be as good, but he is capable of posting comparable numbers in Cincy’s pass-happy offense. And this doesn’t even touch on Zak’s argument about Kirk Cousins (although I suspect Cousins will still be there short of a trade).

So you give up a small amount in WR production, but make it up in RB production. I may be the only person in fantasy football who thinks Michael Carter will be better than Javonte Williams, especially as long as Javonte is mired in an RBBC in Denver. So be it. I love getting Carter in that deal.

On top of that, you get a top 4 pick in what projects to be a strong rookie WR class? You stole it with this trade. You might even get a better WR than JJ, and end up with a great WR2, borderline RB1-2, and a great rookie WR.

To paraphrase what the old commercials used to say, “Wait! This great offer gets better! Order now, and you get a 2nd round pick too! Order now, while you still have the fish on the line!” A lottery ticket pick on top of it?

I tip my hat to your awesome trading skills, sir! Well played!

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I dunno, man. JJ is a top 5 WR. Kupp is a tier of his own, but Deebo, Adams, Chase and JJ come next, not far apart from each other. So based on 2021 figures, there is only 1 better and 3 similarly strong WRs. You won’t get any more upside than that.

And JJ’s target share could still grow. Thielen is not getting any younger. He’ll be 32 in August.

Again, the deal is good. If you want to trade JJ away, this is about the best offer you can expect. But again: if you want to win titles, you need elite players. JJ is elite. None of the players you are trading for is.

Yes, you are. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Carter is undervalued, but not by that much. I see him in the upper RB2 range. But for more, he’d have to play for the other NY team. Or better still, for the upstate NY team.

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Appreciate both of your responses. Good to have both sides of the conversation.

Here’s my thoughts on why I was even discussing the trade.

I’ve been reading/listening to a bunch of content and lot’s people I’ve heard actively look for tier-down options and adding draft picks/upside players. Higgins to me is a top-10 dynasty WR. I realize he isn’t absolutely elite like JJ, but that is why its a tier-down trade. I would have Higgins, Waddle and D Smith as current WRs still on my team. Not to mention who I might be able to get at 1.03 & 1.04 (G Wilson or T Burks?).

Michael Carter to me is a dart throw. I can see him being a decent RB2 or also just being a fill-in player for depth at RB that is seriously lacking now. I am actively pursuing trades to get off of Saquon and E Mitchell for either younger players of more draft capital. Either way Carter gives me another shot at starting a decent RB room.

2023 first, regardless of where this falls, would give me 2 firsts and 3 seconds right now (in 2023), not including trading Mitchell or Saquon. With my 2022 picks, I think I have a decent head start on trying to hit on some RBs.

The extra second is just a throw in. Not sure what year it will be, might end up being a pick swap etc. Just some extra value.

I love JJ. He was my 1.11 pick in the startup this past year. He is elite and I don’t necessarily want to trade him away. But in looking at the other holes I have on my team, Higgins could be serviceable as WR1/2 (with Waddle I think the pair of them could cover irt) , Carter is a flyer (but a worthwhile one I think) and the extra picks all for just a downgrade from JJ to Higgins which currently is only from WR2 → WR8 in current dynasty rankings.

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Could JJ match Cupp? In the right offense, easily. But not in Minnesota.

Is JJ as good as Michael Thomas in his prime? Perhaps. But will Minnesota throw to JJ that much? We’ll see.

That top 4 pick could be an elite player. Even if he isn’t, I’ll take 3 very good players over one elite, unless it’s Cupp.

The Jets are rebuilding, and seem to be doing a fine job of it. If they can improve their o-line, they could easily go toe-to-toe with the Bengals. They won’t win, but they could compete.

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With this being a PPR league, I think Carter can easily get into the RB1 conversation, especially with the state of the Jets defense being not-so-good, which can leave them in a lot of shootouts, and Carter being a good receiver out of the backfield. We saw the start of that this past season.

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I think you first need to decide if you want to win it all or just make the playoffs. If you are just looking to make the playoffs with a bit of fine-tuning that seems possible … This doesn’t look like the makings of a Superbowl team at this point.