Rams vs Bills Thoughts

General
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The over/under on this game was 51 and I bet over. I lost but figured the game right, Neither team ran and "should a been a high scoring air show.

However no one can figure on 7 turn over with two top teams. The highly respected Football Outsiders, based on their NFL research, state that a TO is worth a negative 4 points. That’s 28 points to add to the 41. Even with just 4 TO’s which is fair to over average for these two, The over would win.

I was wrong on Stafford, who was a disaster. Completing 29 passes for 240 and a TD is not horrible with 17 fantasy points but, deduct 6 for 3 picks and it is. Add in 7 sacks on pass plays that never happened and disaster.

Being wrong and losing money is no fun but here there is nothing to learn from it making it worse. As we move on.

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FWIW, I would have bet on the ‘over’ myself, even though I did expect Buffalo to win.

Stafford didn’t look that much different from last year. Few people remember (myself included, until a few days ago) that Stafford led the league in INTs last year, together with Trevor Lawrence.

The big change to last year was that the Rams o-line was a bit weaker, and the opponent’s pass rush was brutal. Stafford will not get sacked 7 times in every game now. And if the o-line can keep the opposing pass rush in check, he will counter his sizeable amount of INTs with a healthy amount of deep passes and TDs again.

And we will see other QBs getting sacked 7 or more times by that Buffalo D. I usually stream the position, but in my main dynasty league, I will definitely hold on to Buffalo, and rather add a second D in the few weeks where I won’t start them.

Not least because the Bills will play the Jets, Dolphins, Bears and Bengals in weeks 14-17. Going by the current projections, they have the best fantasy playoff schedule of all defenses in the league. Especially in the fantasy final, they could turn Joe Burrow into mincemeat, if the Bengals o-line doesn’t get a lot better this year.

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Good/bad to see I am not the only one looking at late schedules.

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Akers was another LA disaster. He is the only Rams player I drafted in one league, put me out 13 points in the hole after a 0 performance,

Only bright spot was Rams D managing 9 points in getting their ass kicked I have them in all leagues save one but sat them this week with a Titan stream.

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Is it too early to call Allen Robinson a bust? After the terrible season he had with the Bears, he goes to LA and makes 1 catch in the opener? He disappeared for the better part of the game. The only thing I can say in his defense is he seemed to be an active run blocker, although the Rams running game is still a disaster.

On a side note, I traded Robinson away for Michael Carter after the game. At least Carter has flex value.

Which brings me to an “I told ya so” moment: I said Cam Akers was a bust. He still is. Trade him for whatever you can get.

As for the Bills, how about that Gabe Davis? 4-88-1 and 18.8 fantasy points to open sure was sweet. Trading away Tee Higgins for Davis and Allen Lazard is looking better already, as Davis looks to be every bit as good as Higgins, and both are in high-powered offenses.

By the way, for all you James Cook fans out there: 1 carry, 2 yards, 1 lost fumble, -1.8 fantasy points. Short of injuries to Singletary and Moss, that’s about as good as he’ll get this year. If the Bills can dominate other teams like they did the Rams, Cook may completely disappear, except for giving the two guys ahead of him an occasional breather. James ain’t his brother!

Honestly, other than Gabe Davis and Allen Robinson, I didn’t have much fantasy exposure to either of these teams. The guys you’d want to have, come with heavy draft prices, and I’m not speculating on their taxi squad players.

Here are some fantasy valuations:

SELL: Allen Robinson, Cam Akers, James Cook (you could find a sucker for him)
HOLD: Josh Allen, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis
BUY LOW: Dawson Knox (if you are desperate for a TE, he’ll have better days), Isaiah McKenzie (if anything happens to Diggs or Davis, McKenzie’s value will skyrocket)

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I do not over or under react over one game, especially game 1, not a wise thing to do. In my view.

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I respect your view. But there are things you can see that will confirm what you thought or feared going into the game. In the case of Robinson, his lack of targets tells me last year wasn’t a complete fluke in Chicago for him. He is likely declining.

As for Akers, I told you guys last week he was a bust. The fact Henderson is back as the Rams lead RB confirms that.

And Cook has been over-rated since the Bills drafted him. I’m not saying he can’t be good, just that it won’t happen in Buffalo. Josh Allen runs, he doesn’t “check down”.

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All the above may prove to be true but IMO is not now. I am not a fan of a
“rush to judgement.”

Robinson missed much time due to injury and Akers is recovering from one. Cook is a rookie who will go off sometime this year, do not know when,