My Current Roster: Any suggestions on how to make it stronger this off-season

Any suggestions on trades to make my team stronger or should I stay out. Just looking for some outside opinions

2 QB Dynasty League (PPR)

QB- Aaron Rodgers
QB- Russ Wilson
RB: Aaron Jones
RB: Miles Sanders
WR: D. Adams
WR. Keenan Allen
WR: Amari Cooper
TE: Travis Kelce
Flex: Chris Godwin

Bench
Mike Thomas
Rashod Bateman
Justin Fields
D. Henderson
Sam Darnold
AJ Dillon
Corey Davis

QB - both your starters are shaky. Rodgers may stay in Green Bay for another year or three, but you should start thinking about a replacement. If Justin Fields is the answer remains to be seen. I’m not as high on him as many analysts are, but I agree it’s too early to write him off. Sam Darnold is more likely to be a write-off, though.

RB - Aaron Jones reached the dreaded age of 27, which is the time by which most RBs start regressing and get injured more often. If you can get top dollar for him, it may be a good time to trade him away this offseason. Sanders looked terrible this season, even when healthy. Right now, Dillon is your only safe option. Prioritize the RB position during the draft.

WR - Adams is a free agent, and it’s not sure if the Packers will bring him back. He will find a job for sure, but he will also be 30 next season. He’s not a sure-fire WR1 anymore. Neither is Keenan Allen, who is also heading into his age-30 season. Amari Cooper is a WR2/3 only when looking at his season stats. If you look at the weekly ones, you will see that he had only 3 strong weeks. I don’t like that sort of production, will try to trade him away myself this offseason. Michael Thomas is a complete wildcard. As it stands, Godwin is your only safe bet on WR, especially if the Bucs decide to keep him (he’s a free agent) and Brady plays for another year.

TE - They tend to have a longer shelf life than RBs, but at age 33, you can’t be sure for how much longer he will be a guarantee to win the TE game in your league.

In general, your team is pretty old and your top players are all bound for regression. You can try to ride the wave for another year, but my suggestion would be to try a turnaround. Your team is lacking young talent, you have hardly any players that I would consider safe beyond the 2022 season. You definitely need to win the next 2 rookie drafts if you want your team to be a contender.

2 Likes

To second what Zak said, looking over your roster, my first thought was “get younger”. Bateman, Fields, Dillon, and Davis are good starts, but you need more. All your positions need a youth injection.

3 Likes

Agree with above but you need to start getting younger, maybe not drop all the guys but trade away a couple of your ageing stars for top prospects… Other option is a fire sale on all your stars for 1st rd draft piks and you go all in on rookies this yr, focus on WR’s 2022 there’s a few to be had that will be good then 2023 use your rd1 piks to go after some of those 2023 RB’s… It’s a 2 yr rebuild but if you do it right your set for 5 yrs… Also get a Burrows type QB to go with this roster before he gets too expensive… Maybe you can trade Kelce for Pitts, you may need to add a sweetner but if your going young he’s the guy to have on your roster at TE

My only objection to a 5 year time frame comes at RB. By the time you are at 5 years, most RB’s are hitting the end of their career, if they even manage to last 5 years. Nowadays, even if you have a good RB or 2 or 3, the injuries at that position are becoming brutal (COVID isn’t helping this any).

Use the draft to get some good rookie RB’s first. Then use it for WR’s and TE’s.

Trade for established QB’s. Using the draft for QB’s is a crapshoot. It may cost you more to trade, but you can at least get someone you know is legit.

I fully agree. But:

Isn’t that the wrong strategy then?

Statistically, the best fantasy season for RBs is their rookie season. They are usually good right out of the gate, or never. There are a few exceptions, when RBs like Pollard or Dillon have to wait for the roster situation to offer more opportunities. But that’s difficult to speculate upon. Usually, when you spend an early draft pick on an RB, you are going for an immediate RB1.

WRs and especially TEs on the other hand need some time to develop. For WRs, that time has notably grown shorter. TEs still tend to need 2-3 seasons before they begin to unleash their full potential. Both WRs and TEs have a longer shelf life, though.

I started my rebuild for that derelict team I took over on WR. Didn’t completely ignore the RB position, but deliberately spent the 1.01 on Ja’Marr Chase, rather than Najee Harris.

I could have drafted Harris instead, and postpone WR to the next draft. But if my top WR pick then would have needed 2 years to unleash his potential, my RB1 may have started regressing by the time I had a competitive WR room. Meanwhile, my team would have been mediocre, which means: no top draft picks.

Instead, I completed my WR rebuild first. All my top WRs (Chase, Waddle, Pittman, Van Jefferson, KJ Osborn) should have plenty of good years ahead of them. Barring any unforeseen situations, I can now focus entirely on the RB position in the next 4-5 drafts. And I can afford to bundle 2-3 picks to trade up in the first round, so that I can get a shot at a top RB.

Especially with a time frame of 2-5 years, I would begin the rebuild on WR.

You might think so, except there are more WR’s and TE’s who can do well. Good RB’s are hard to come by, even RB2’s.

The only problem I see with your strategy is using the 1.01 on Chase. You won’t get another shot at an RB like Harris.

Intuition suggests that. But looking at the data, I am not so sure about that.

I have thrown the average fantasy production of the top 32 players for each skill position for the last 4 seasons into a graph:

The top 8 RBs produce more points than the top 8 WRs. About 2 more points in a half PPR league. Between position 9 and 26, the graphs are almost identical. The RB curve drops off a little bit faster, but at position 26, the difference is still just 0.4 points per game. At position 32, it’s 0.9. So the WR32 scores an average 0.9 points more than the RB32.

I have to admit, before I started analysing the data, I thought the difference would be a lot bigger.

Still - top RBs score better than top WRs. But the RBs have a much shorter shelf life. Having a top tier RB is great. But the fun isn’t likely to last too long.

As for the Chase vs Harris comparison: again, intuition suggests that you are right. But again, a look at the data contradicts the intuition.

That league is a full PPR one, so looking at those 2021 stats:
Najee Harris: total 302.7 points (17.8 per game)
Ja’Marr Chase: total 321.6 points (18.9 per game)

Granted, those numbers are a bit warped because of Chase’s insane week 17 stat line. Still, Chase outperformed Harris in their rookie season.

Empirical data suggests that Harris may have seen his best season already. On average, most RBs have their best fantasy season as a rookie. WRs usually reach their peak performance in year 4.

I would make the case that I won’t get another shot at a WR like Chase any time soon. Ideally, he will give me absolute top-tier performance for the next 6-8 years. Which is an eternity in fantasy football.

And during all that time, I can afford to bundle my 1st, 2nd and 3rd to trade up into the top 3 picks, to get a shot at the best RB talent. If Trey Lance fulfills his QB1 expectations, I am now only one RB1 away from being a serious contender next year.

Of course, we all know that things will go horribly wrong. But as far as things can be planned, I feel I did make the right choice.

And trust me, it was terribly hard to not pick Harris with the 1.01.

1 Like

It sounds like you did the right thing.

As I said in the other thread, get help man. You clearly have some issues to work out.

I see you just joined this site 4 hours ago and read for 12 minutes? I joined last May and have posted many times, yet you have me judged thoroughly? You can climb back under your rock. But do try to get some help for your anger issues, please.

Personal friend of yours? I mean… wow… okay… :clown_face:

Don’t look at me. I don’t know this fool, nor do I want to.