Hot Takes on the Coming Season

Here are some hot takes on the upcoming NFL season:

  1. Tampa will NOT win their division. New Orleans will. New Orleans might even compete for the NFC Championship. Jameis Winston will be a top 12 QB, and possibly even top 5.

  2. Speaking of the NFC, the Rams will NOT win it again this year.

  3. The AFC West will have the division winner with the worst record in the AFC playoffs. In fact, they might not even have a wild card team. But every division game will be must-watch tv.

  4. Derek Carr will have a better season than Aaron Rodgers.

  5. Trey Lance will be a bust. Good running QB, but a lot like Jalen Hurts in passing.

  6. The Jets will be a much better team this year, and might even win their division. Zack Wilson will be much improved.

  7. Chase Claypool will be a top 5 WR this year.

  8. Russell Wilson will be a bust in Denver. Not a bad QB, but nowhere near what was expected when they traded for him.

  9. Daniel Jones will not finish the year as the Giants starting QB. Jake Fromm will.

  10. Davis Mills will be a top 20 QB this season, and possibly even top 12, depending on the rest of the Houston offense.

  11. Matt Corral will be the starting QB in Carolina before the end of the year, and possibly at the start.

  12. Mac Jones will break Drew Brees’s record for completion percentage in a season (74.4%) eventually, and possibly this season.

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Aah, hot takes. :sunglasses:

Allow me to :fire: yours, while adding a few own ones. :sweat_smile:

Nope, nope, nope, nope and nope.

Winning as in “will not finish regular season as #1 seed” or “will not win the NFC title game”?

I agree that it’s the most brutal division in the entire NFL. That does not necessarily mean the results will be balanced, though. But I see where you are coming from.

By what metric?

Trey Lance will be a top 10 QB, and possibly top 5. Good running QB, and lot better at passing than Jalen Hurts. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Much better? Yeah. Win the division? Never ever. Make the playoffs? Only if they beat the Patriots and have a very positive record in their non-divisional games. So unlikely, but not impossible.

Chase Claypool will end the season not being a starter for the Pittsburgh Steelers anymore. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Depends on how you define “bust”. But I agree that he will not meet expectations, not least because of bullet point #3.

For that to happen, the Giants would have to re-sign Fromm first. And he would have to beat Tyrod Taylor. Not gonna happen.

Top 20 - maybe. Top 12 - nope. Mills made the dumpster fire that was the 2021 Texans look a little less dumpster-fire’ish towards the end of the season. But they are still a dumpster fire in 2022. Mills will play a solid 2022 season, you and me will agree that he should have a future in Houston, and the Texans will spend an early 2023 pick on an overrated rookie, who will turn out to be a bust. Mills will be traded to Washington for next-to-nothing.

Matt Corral will be the starting QB in Carolina at the start, but not at the end of the year.
Why? Dunno. Felt boring to just agree with you. :sweat_smile:

Nope. The Patriots will once again struggle to reach the playoffs, which will lead to more risk, which will lead to Jones’ completion percentage staying well below 70. The Patriots will fire Belichick after the 2023 draft, in which he picked 5 kickers, a long snapper and a groundskeeper. The new coaching staff will bring more YOLO to Foxborough, which will help Jones’ fantasy scoring, but not his completion ratio.

As for my own hot takes - I only have 4 so far:

  1. The current top 10 RBs according to ECR are: J Taylor, D Henry, A Ekeler, C McCaffrey, D Cook, J Mixon, N Harris, N Chubb, A Kamara, J Williams.
    The players in bold will not finish the season inside the top 10.

  2. Neither Tyreek Hill nor Davante Adams will finish the season as a top 6 WR.

  3. No skill position player of the Washington Commanders will finish as a top 14 option on their respective position.

  4. The only team that will have 4 skill position players finish inside the top 14 of their respective position are the Cincinnati Bengals.

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I have little doubt that Rams will win their division. But they will enter the playoffs a little worse for wear. Keep in mind they will have to win the toughest division in the NFC, while also playing against the toughest division in the AFC. That’s a rough schedule.

Yards and TD’s.

If Lance is so good, why do the 49ers seem reluctant to let Jimmy G. go?

We will see.

Add a bold for CMC and Ekeler.

Adams will be a top 5. But I agree with you on Hill.

No argument.

Before or after Joe Burrow misses a good portion of the season after getting murdered behind their swiss cheese offensive line?

True that.

Yards is not a hot take. In 2021, Carr beat Rodgers 4,804 to 4,115 in that department. Outside of injury scenarios, it would be headline material if that was to change in 2022.

TDs… 2021 was Rodgers’ 37 to Carr’s 23. I do expect Rodgers’ number to come down while Carr’s will go up. But closing a 14 TD gap? I’m not seeing that. 32-27 in favor of Rodgers is my call here.

Because no other team wants him. Mostly because he comes with a $27m cap hit. Of which the Niners can save $25m by cutting him. He’ll not be on the Niners’ 53 man roster.

Nope. Both will play around 13 full regular season games. CMC will finish the season as RB4, Ekeler as RB8. Yes, I did just make those numbers up, as my player projections still aren’t ready. :sweat_smile:

Only if Waller drops below TE10 and Renfrow below WR20. I have Adams as WR7 in my preliminary WR rankings - hence the rather random “top 6 WR” category in my hot take. :sweat_smile:

Joe Burrow is Iron Man. The Chuck Norris of QBs. He doesn’t need an o-line. He just deflects incoming pass rushers. My biggest concern is that he will receive a league ban after starting to smoke cigars while on the field. :sweat_smile:

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Nope. CMC won’t touch the top 12, let alone 4. And Ekeler will be competing with Spiller for touches.

You do realize that Carr and Adams have a history?

You do realize Burrow missed most of 2 seasons ago because of an injury? You expect him to survive another season? GL with that!

The big unknown about CMC is his health. There are plenty of reasons for doubt, but also a few for hope. I have zero shares in him, so this is not an owner talking him up. I’m just guessing he will stay mostly healthy this year.

As for Ekeler - his volume share on the ground was 49% in 2021. There is a lot of room for Spiller to establish himself without immediately hurting Ekeler’s fantasy value. There will be some TD regression, so I don’t expect Ekeler to finish as a top 5 RB once again. But as long as he stays healthy, he’ll be a safe top 10 candidate, especially in PPR formats.

I do, and I’m not saying Adams will be a bust. But the situation in Las Vegas is not the same as in Green Bay. Adams is still a top 10 candidate, but not a safe top 5 bet anymore.

I thought this was a hot take thread… :smile:

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Just read a few reports that you probably read yourself a few days earlier, and yeah, maybe I will have to re-consider my position on Lance…

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Even hot takes have their reasons. Where there’s smoke… :wink: