5th pick superflex half PPR

I’m “mixing” them because an intelligent drafter can find QBs that perform above their ADP on the reg.

Since 2015, Matt Ryan has finished lower than QB12 only once, and that was when he was QB15 in 2017. He’s being drafted later than the rookies Lawrence, Lance, and Fields.

Kirk Cousins was the QB3 over the back half of 2020. Derek Carr was the QB11 over the back half, and the QB13 overall. He’s the 25th QB off the board. Daniel Jones was QB6 over the back half of his rookie season, 2019, when he had Barkley. Now he has Barkley again, AND a true #1 WR–and you can get him for free. Ryan Fitzpatrick is #9 in average pass yards per game over the past 3 seasons.

So sure, if you draft the QB who returns QB20 points, that’s a disadvantage. But you can do that with a sixth round pick too. And you can draft QBs who return QB10-12ish value in the QB20-25 range, if you know what you’re doing.

And if you don’t know what you’re doing, you can, at a minimum, listen to Axe Elf.

As long as they are my competitors, I won’t either.

Never stop your opponent when he is making a mistake.

But that’s 2 different stories. If you expect a player to perform a lot better than his ADP, then sure, you can wait a round or three and snag him at a discount, scooping up valuable players in the meantime.

That does not change the simple fact that, once the season is over, a QB5+QB15 combo will have scored 14+ FFP more per game than a QB15+QB25 combo.

If, at the end of the season, your QBs rank #15 and #25, you probably won’t have won your superflex league, unless the rest of your players are all top 5 on their positions.

Well, that’s been my contention all along. Five or six, even.

I can still get the performance from a mid-ranged QB and still have a tier 1 possibly two tier 1 RBs instead of using that pick on a QB

Just to give you a idea of what I was dealing with.

Round 1
1 Patrick Mahomes KC, QB
2 Christian McCaffrey Car, RB
3 Josh Allen Buf, QB
4 Alvin Kamara NO, RB
5 Dalvin Cook Min, RB
6 Travis Kelce KC, TE
7 Ezekiel Elliott Dal, RB
8 Derrick Henry Ten, RB
9 Austin Ekeler LAC, RB
10 Saquon Barkley NYG, RB

Round 2
1 Davante Adams GB, WR
2 Tyreek Hill KC, WR
3 Najee Harris Pit, RB
4 Aaron Rodgers GB, QB
5 Antonio Gibson Wsh, RB
6 Nick Chubb Cle, RB
7 Jonathan Taylor Ind, RB
8 Kyler Murray Ari, QB
9 Aaron Jones GB, RB
10 Calvin Ridley Atl, WR

Love the CMC/Jones combo from the 2 slot…

Two top 5 RBs is a good start, and I don’t care who your QBs are (within reason).

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My 2nd pick was between Chubb and Jones. I went with Chubb since Cleveland has one of if not the best run block O-lines with Teller, J.C. Tretter, and Joel Bitonio.

Dalvin Cook was definitely the right pick. In the 2nd round I would have taken Kyler Murray, who I had as #10 overall. The 13 turns that went by since Josh Allen gives Murray some good value at that point. Also, by getting both your starting RBs early you limit your opportunity to take advantage of RB value picks that may present themselves later on, since you’ll be wanting to focus on your other starting positions.

AxeElf, I appreciate your perspective, but the Superflex ECR has 4 QBs in the top 9. It’s a little hard for me to believe that a consensus of 150 people who study fantasy football would be so completely wrong. I do think it’s a bit high though, as I put the QB4 at #15

Ranking Snip

That’s why the error is so pervasive and so persistent.

The logical fallacy here is called an “appeal to the majority.” It suggests that a perspective is correct if it is shared by the greatest number of people.

However, 80% of all drivers feel they are a “better than average” driver, so about a third of the drivers on the road are fooling themselves.

The same goes for fantasy football experts. They basically fall into two categories–the accurate ones who generally agree with Axe Elf, and the inaccurate ones, who are generally in the majority.

Remember, there’s only 1 winner in every league–but every league needs 11 also-rans who listened to the majority.

Yes, it was an error, but not an insurmountable one.

How is it an Error? What are you basing your decision on? Pass catching ability? The QB in front of them? Durability?
2020 Games/Att’s/Yds/TD’s/Avg Rec/yds/tds
Jones 14 201 1104 9 78.2 47 355 2
Chubb 12 190 1060 12 88.9 16 150 0

It was an error because Aaron Jones was still available at the time you took Chubb.

Consensus ADPs and their performances over the past two seasons (in which Jones has finished as RB2 and RB5, while Chubb has finished as RB7 and RB9).

the consensus being AxeElf :wink:

Chubb put up almost the same numbers as jones and only played 12 to jones 14 games. Ill get back with you at the end of the season.

Serious question–Have you seen any ADP lists that have Chubb ahead of Jones? If you can link to a serious source that does, I’ll grant you the difference of opinion. I just don’t think there could possibly be one. The top 6 picks in the draft are almost universally considered to be CMC, Cook, Henry, Zeke, Kamara and Jones (in some order)–with Chubb somewhere in the next tier. Picking Chubb over Jones is definitely a minority opinion, and most likely, an incorrect one as well.

If Chubb loses just 2 of his 12 TDs from last season (to OBJ’s return, to Hooper’s development, whatev), he falls from RB9 to RB13.

I’ve looked at the ADP and I’m not denying your wrong with jones being ahead of him in ADP. Most the list have Jones ahead but it seems more up or down opinionated . I’m just saying its not a Error on my part. I put my gamble on Chubbs due to the volume he is going to get and the protection he has up front. I already have Cook to lead the RB so I don’t think its really gonna hurt to have either one. It could have been worse by drafting a QB.

Don’t wiffle-waffle; can you post a link to an ADP list that has Chubb ahead of Jones or not?

If not, then it’s not “most” and it’s not “up and down” and it’s not a matter of opinion; you objectively chose a lesser prospect–made an error.

But like I said, not one you can’t overcome.

I like waffles, Jones is ahead in most if not all( I say that because im not looking at all boards) but the rankings between those who voted that are up and down with majority leaning towards Jones.

Okay, well, absent evidence to the contrary, I’m going to read “majority” as “all.”

Thank you for your research.

[quote=“AxeElf, post:39, topic:2290”]
Thank you for your research.
[/quote] up and down rankings…and as I said jones ahead :heart: :heart: :heart:

9. Aaron Jones, GB 7 10 9 10 9 8 8.8
10. Nick Chubb, Cle 8 7 10 9 10 10