2023 Top Dynasty/Keeper Rookies Fantasy Pros

Hall was/is as solid a prospect as they come, but he does not have the same wow factor as Bijan.

Also, no team had the RB position among their biggest needs last year. This draft is a different story. Different team needs, different talent levels, different distribution between positions.

The Cards need an RB this year. They didn’t last year.
The Lions may want an upgrade on RB. They didn’t last year.
The Raiders need an RB, unless they tag Jacobs. They didn’t last year.
The Panthers need a successor for CMC. They didn’t last year.
The Titans need a successor for Henry. They didn’t last year.
And the Eagles need a new RB, and didn’t last year.

Bijan will be a top 10 pick. Gibbs will probably go in the first round, too.

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We’ll see what happens. Any of those teams could have taken an RB last year, and all of them had a shot at Breece Hall and Kenny Walker.

Robinson is a certain 1st and maybe Gibbs. This position is as loaded as WR last year. I cannot remember the last time I saw this much talent.

Some teams may see this as a chance to address another need first knowing that they should be able to come back later and still get a quality RB.

What do you think is the trade value of Robinson vs Gibbs?

They had no reason to.

The Cards had Conner, who was looking surprisingly good at that point. Also, their first pick was a late 2nd.

The Lions had high hopes for a healthy Swift, and made 2 strong 1st round picks in Aiden Hutchinson and Jameson Williams, with both of them addressing team needs.

The Raiders still had Jacobs for another year, and entered the draft only late in the 3rd round.

The Panthers had CMC, and I doubt it was their masterplan to trade him mid-season. They upgraded their o-line in round 1 (good call), and then only drafted again late in the 3rd, when they added Matt Corral.

The Titans had Henry still going strong. They used the 1st they got for AJ Brown on a WR replacement.

And the Eagles still had Montgomery, and went all D, which turned out to be a very good call.

As I said: you cannot possibly compare 2 drafts. Everything has changed since the 2022 draft. Team needs, draft order, positional depth in the new class - everything.

Last year, only 1 QB was selected in the first round: Kenny Pickett, at #20. Nobody would predict the same to happen in 2023 again. Neither would anybody predict the first 5 picks to be all defense again.

So why should we expect no RB to be drafted in the first round, just because that happened last year?

Bijan will go straight to the top tier and join players like JT and Saquon.

Gibbs will probably slot in a little lower, among players like Walker, Hall, Etienne and Rhamondre.

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Conner has a long injury history. He’s no bellcow, so they need another RB to cut his carries to a manageable level.

Actually, the Raiders did take a shot at Zamir White.

Speaking of players with an injury history…

Henry missed half of 2021, and they did draft Hassan Haskins in 2022, in the 4th round.

You mean Miles Sanders? The lead RB who only played in 12 games in 2020 and 2021?

Because RB is not the dominant position it has been for nearly 100 years. In addition, they don’t last very long before they start to break down, in comparison to other positions. Wasting precious draft capital on an RB in the 1st round is GM suicide.

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And again, the Cards’ first pick was a late 2nd. And they had other needs as well.

And I told you back then already that, if a team drafts an RB in the 4th round, it’s not the successor of the current bellcow in 9 out of 10 cases. 90% of all top RBs have been drafted in the 3rd round or earlier.

Never anything serious, though. Many predicted he’d stay healthy in 2022, and so he did. What he did not was staying with the Panthers. But as I said, I don’t think that was their masterplan prior to the season.

See White, Zamir.

D’oh, of course I did. Let’s not forget that, whoever is the lead back in Philly, will only be the team’s RB2. But I can see them drafting an RB now, because a) they don’t have a lot of other needs, and b) they may want to keep Hurts healthy.

True. But there also hasn’t been a talent like Bijan in the mix since 2018. Jacobs (2019), Taylor (2020), Najee (2021) and Hall (2022) were / are all fine RBs. But the last one as good as Bijan was Saquon in 2018. Who was drafted #2 overall.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Gibbs dropped to the early second round. But Bijan will be a top 10 pick.

Let’s meet again here on April 27th, for a friendly “told you so” (the direction of which still tbd :sweat_smile: ).

Are you kidding? CMC’s games played during his career (and his total touches):

2017: 16 (197)
2018: 16 (326)
2019: 16 (403)
2020: 3 (76)
2021: 7 (136)
2022: 17 (329)

The 2019 season killed him for 2 years afterwards. Finally, in 2022, they went back to his 2018 totals. But do NOT even try to sell me on “CMC has no injury history”. You know better.

My point is the Eagles needed an RB last year, even a late round pick.

Don’t get me wrong on the value of Bijan. I’m just not sold somebody will draft him early. You keep bringing up Saquon Barkley, and how many playoff games has he won before today? That would be none. RB’s don’t matter as much as you think, even great ones.

I never did. Of course, he had a lot of injuries. None of them was serious, though. That’s all I said.

After the 2019 season, I wasn’t surprised. Most RBs struggle to shoulder such a workload. But I saw no reason for concern in 2022, and I was right. 2023 could be different again, of course.

Yet they didn’t seem to have suffered too badly from disagreeing with you. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Which does prove your other point, though. The RB position has changed. Offensive systems have become more versatile, and RBBCs are common these days, also to avoid RBs to break down after a few years already.

But all that does not mean teams will shy away from great talents on the position. Especially if they are as versatile as Bijan. And if your team is in a position where it doesn’t have any gaping roster holes, but could enter a window of opportunity to win a title, or even several.

CMC lost the better portion of 2 SEASONS with injuries! YES, they were serious!

Didn’t they? At the end of this season, when Jalen Hurts missed a couple of games with an injury, how well did they do? Sanders was good for 6 fantasy points each week. Kenneth Gainwell added 8 and 3. Yes, they could have used a good RB to take the pressure off Minshew. They lost both games to Dallas and New Orleans.

High ankle sprain (right)
Shoulder joint sprain
Thigh glute strain
Thigh hamstring strain
Ankle sprain (left)

All injuries from the “missed 4-6 weeks” category. None of them serious, none of them posing an increased risk of re-aggravation after the season is over.

Torn ACL, MCL, meniscus or achilles. Broken bones, bruised joints. Those are serious injuries that often spill over into next season, and carry an increased risk of re-aggravation.

Which is why I expect them to draft one this year. And why not the best of them all, if he is still available at #10?

When you miss as much time as CMC did, I’d call that serious.

And they should have drafted one last year.

I am curious of views on TE Mayer. He projects as a first round pick with a ton of talent. With a huge fantasy need at TE where will he be drafted in dynasty, keeper and redraft?

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How many WRs, other than Johnston, do you see going in the first round of fantasy drafts?

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That will be interesting to watch. Kyle Pitts’ 2022 performance may make some dynasty managers think twice before they draft Mayer early in the first round.

With the big influx of QBs, that will depend on team needs. Talent-wise, JSN, Addison and maybe Boutte (unless he changes his mind yet again) may warrant 1st round picks. But there is a good chance this year to score a top rookie WR with a 2nd round pick in dynasty rookie drafts. Or to score an elite one with a late 1st, if the early picks all go QB and RB.

In SFLEX leagues, I wouldn’t be surprised if no WR comes off the board with the first 8 picks.

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I have interest in a TE but having one sit for a year is tuff to take. I’m thinking of taking a chance on Mayer around round 7-8.

WR in our league will be interesting as I can see only around 10 picks being used through 4 rounds and dropped vets like a Cook and Henry taking some of them.

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I just read that Johnston and Addison have not declared for the draft yet. Same for C.J. Stroud.

Today is the last day to do so.

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It depends where Mayer winds up. For example, if he ends up on the Chiefs behind Travis Kelce, it will be quite a few years before he has any value, so his draft stock takes a huge hit.

Stroud just declared for the 2023 draft.

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