When top WRs switch over to other teams, it’s safe to assume that they will experience some regression. The passing volume might not be the same, the chemistry with the new QB may take some time to develop, and the new WR room may not accept them as an immediate alpha.
Hence, I was sceptical about Tyreek Hill’s and Davante Adam’s 2022 season. Not anymore, though. Here’s why:
He was the undisputed alpha target in Green Bay. In 2021, his stat line read:
123/169, 72.8% catch rate, 1,553 passing yards, 11 TDs
He won’t be able to repeat that in 2022. While I do expect him to be the #1 receiver in his new team, the competition for targets is bigger.
However, the Raiders also pass more than the Packers, which will make up for some of the expected regression.
In Las Vegas, I have Adams down for a 27% volume share. I also gave him a 35% TD share, as he is just brutally efficient in the red zone.
The resulting stat line reads:
110/170, 65% catch rate, 1,305 yards, 10 TDs. Less than in Green Bay, but still enough to come out as WR#7 in my early projections.
And there is upside. If his catch rate is 70% instead of 65, he’s already WR#5. If his target share increases by just 2%, he’s WR#2. The top 3 potential is still there for Adams, even though I would not recommend to draft him above his WR#4 ADP.
There will be some regression for Adams, but not enough to call him a bust.
The outlook for Hill seems even more grim. He comes from one of the best passing offenses in the league. And Tua is no Patrick Mahomes, there’s just no denying that.
Hill’s 2021 stat line:
111/159, 69.8% catch rate, 1,239 yards, 9 TDs.
That represented a 25% volume share in KC. And here’s the trick: the overall volume in Miami will be lower. But given the lack of competition, his share of the Dolphin pie should be bigger. Which could lead to his slice being bigger than the one he had in 2021.
I don’t even expect the Dolphins’ passing offense to improve dramatically. It actually wasn’t terrible in 2021 already, and ranked above average in all metrics except for yards per completion. And that one I do expect to improve, as the targets should become deeper with Tyreek in town.
I gave Hill and Waddle a combined 60% target share. The RBs and Gesicki should soak up about 30%, but there are no notable WRs to claim a big piece of the pie. Cedrick Wilson will see a few targets, but not nearly enough to become fantasy relevant.
I do give Hill an edge over Waddle, but not a huge one. 32-28 right now. That leads to following projected stat line for Hill in 2022:
132/202, 65.0% catch rate, 1,353 yards, 8 TDs.
That’s pretty much his 2021 stat line. And indeed, he comes out as WR#3 in my rankings. Waddle is WR#10 at the same time.
Now, there is some uncertainty here. I can also see the pendulum swing in Waddle’s favor. He has perfect chemistry with Tua, who was his QB not just last year, but also in college. Hill will draw the top CB’s attention, which could open many a door for Waddle to walk through. Waddle is a must-have WR in 2022 in my book.
But even if Hill and Waddle swap stat lines, Hill would still be WR#10. That would qualify as regression, but not as a bust.
Both Adams and Hill are risky at their current ADP, but it’s not a crazy risk. Both have top 3 upside, and still a pretty safe floor. If you have any of them in dynasty, do not sell them cheap because of all the bust talk. There is no reason to panic here. Both will finish the season in WR1 territory.