When to Draft a TE

I would not spend a high pick on Kelce at his age or Andrews, although it could work out. After that there is Hockenson, Goedert, Pitts and Kittle who I would not take before the 6th round.

Last year from TE #7 to #15 there was a 10 point difference in fantasy points scored over 17 games. You could be better off taking a D or K first.

That said, I do like the potential of Dolcich and for next year, Kincaid.

Last year from TE #1 to #2 there was a 101 point difference in PPR fantasy points scored over 17 games, and TE #2 scored 215 total points.

That’s right, Kelce scored 50% more fantasy points than any other TE–and he scored more than twice as many fantasy points than any TE not in the top 5.

He is THE player in fantasy football who is most guaranteed to be the #1 player at his position, and barring injury, it’s going to be by a lot.

Yes but it cannot go on forever. I prefer to pass other than maybe a redraft.

Well what else would we be talking about… dynasty leagues where Kelce is a free agent?

Some keeper leagues are like redraft. Others are more dynasty.

I think if you can get Kelce in any draft, you do. Even in dynasty or keeper, he’d help you win this year, which is the purpose of any league.

Even if Kelce tails off, a small tail off would still leave him as a top 5 TE.

If you’re in dynasty and have Kelce, you want to pair him with a good young rookie TE, and hope for the best.

An 8/10 keeper hybrid is similar to dynasty. I would take Kelce but not with a top pick. A 4 or maybe 3 is more realistic for me as I would not pass on a young player like a Higgins, Gibbs or D Smith in the 2nd for him in start up.

Just my view on building.

I took a look at the ranks from FP. CBS and PFF. They all agree on Kelce late 3rd or 4th.

FP has Pitts and Andrews late 2nd-3rd. I disagree and would go maybe 4th.
They have Hockenson in the 5th. Maybe but 6 for sure.

They have all others in the 7th or later. I could take Kittle or Goedert in the 6th.

I would also take a shot at Kincaid and Dolcich in the 8th.

Craziness. Must be a bunch of bot nonsense, because Kelce has a first-round ADP among drafters who know what they are doing.

I have seen that in standard ADPs but not a one in dynasty.

I wouldn’t rate Andrews higher than Kelce, even in dynasty. Andrews will be 28 in September, and he has shown a drop-off in targets last year (from 153 to 113), after the Ravens drafted Isaiah Likely. I expect that drop-off to continue this season.

On the other hand, Kelce had a peak in targets, receptions, and td’s in 2022, at the age of 33.

If I had to choose which one of Kelce or Andrews is more likely to repeat their 2022 performance, I’d say Kelce.

Having said all that, are Kelce or Andrews worth their projected ADP value? No. I might take a shot at Pitts, since he’s younger and has more upside potential. In dynasty and keeper leagues, I’d look more towards some of the rookie TE’s in later rounds, or even young veterans like Isaiah Likely.

If you don’t spend up for Kelce (or possibly Andrews), then you might as well wait until much later and go with Gronkow… er… Gesicki.

Yeah Ed we agree. I might take a shot on Pitts in the 4th but have no problem in drafting Kincaid, Dolcich, Mayer, etc and gambling they turn into something.

Depending on who is available in your draft, I believe you are much better off taking a top young player in the 2nd and maybe 3rd who will be there for 5 years over an old TE for 1 or 2.

As you say later is better, 7.8, 9 sounds about right.

The vast majority of fantasy football players don’t care what a player will do next year, let alone in five years.

I do in a 8-10 keeper league start up. The second year is very different and is all for a title.

The vast majority of fantasy football players don’t play in keeper or dynasty leagues.

Yeah and I was not clear on keeper/dynasty picks.