When is a Player Past His Prime?

General
1

Prime? || A Breakdown of EVERY Position

How old is too old in the NFL?
When is a player past their prime?

I analyzed the Top 20 Players by Grade at EVERY position for the past 5 Seasons (via PFF) to identify when players stop showing up among the top performers at each position.

In doing so, we’re able to look at the players currently on our rosters and those of other teams to see how close we are to needing to worry about their performance dropping off.

  • Is a player on the trade block actually over the hill?
  • Is a free agent trying to capitalize on what he was, and not what he’s actually likely to be if you sign him?

Let’s look at what the numbers can reveal about each position and when we really need to start worrying about a player falling off.

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►► How To Interpret The Data (Intro to Percentiles): ◄◄
(skip if you already know what Percentiles are & how to use them)

The cleanest way to represent this idea is to identify the percentiles.
Percentiles are nice as they tell you how much of the “population” is larger than.
For example, the 90th percentile would be the age that is older than 90% of ALL such top performers at their position in the last 5 seasons.

Among the Top 10, the age that is the:

  • 90th Percentile means that among the Top 10 players, only 1 would be your age or older (9 would be younger).
  • 80th Percentile among the Top 10 players means only 2 would be your age or older (8 would be younger).

Among the Top 20, the age that is the:

  • 90th Percentile means that among the Top 20 players, only 2 would be your age or older (18 would be younger).
  • 85th Percentile among the Top 20 players means only 3 would be your age or older (17 would be younger).
  • 80th Percentile among the Top 20 players means only 4 would be your age or older (16 would be younger).

With the “math” explained, here’s how the percentiles break down over the past 5 seasons at EVERY position.

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►► THE DATA :sweat_drops::sweat_drops:: ◄◄

Top 10: 90th Percentile Top 10: 80th Percentile Top 20: 90th Percentile Top 20: 85th Percentile Top 20: 80th Percentile A Grade only: 90th Percentile
RBs 26.1 25.2 27 27 26 26
QBs 39.2 35.2 37 36 34 36.7
TEs 31 30 31 30 29 29.8
WRs 29.1 28 30 29 28 29.6
Centers 32 31 32 31 30 31
Guards 31 29.2 30 29.2 29 30
Tackles 34 31.2 32.1 31 30 32
DTs 30 28.2 31 30 29 30
DEs 31 30 31 30 30 30
LBs 31 30 30 30 29 30.7
CBs 30 29 30 29 29 29
Safeties 31.1 29 31 30 29 30.3
Kickers 33.1 32 35.1 34.2 34 31
Punters 33.1 32 34 32.2 31 26
2

Some of us have talked about roughly the same but it’s good to see some factual data on this. It is a big help to all fantasy managers t draft and manage your rosters.

Like anything, there are exceptions but odds are against it.

3

NeaTo PeetO. :smirk: I have a tough time believing that defensive players average around 30 during their peak though. Not sure how you got all of this.

4

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/11nzgfu/oc_age_the_nfl_when_is_a_player_past_their_prime/#:~:text=A%20receiver’s%20age%2030%20year,younger%

Too involved to post as is.