For Austin Ekeler, there are multiple factors that make me pessimistic for his 2023 outlook. And it’s not even so much his age. He is nearing the empiric age cliff for RBs, but the fact that he saw little usage in his early years and profiles more as a WR than an RB makes me optimistic that he may last 1-2 years longer than the average RB.
I should also add that I am not an Ekeler hater. To the contrary, he is one of “my guys” in fantasy. I added him prior to the 2018 season, when hardly anybody knew him, and held on to him ever since, as I was convinced back then already that he was better than Melvin Gordon.
I also predicted a “top 10, possibly top 5” season for him in 2021. In 2022, I did expect some regression, but still saw him as a top 10 guy. I’d never have thought that he’d become the #1 RB, though, gotta admit that.
Reason #1: in 2021, one big concern about him was if he could withstand the physical impact of playing in a bellcow role. He had hamstring issues before, when he still was in an RBBC with Gordon, so those concerns weren’t unreasonable.
He made it through 2021, and as usual, there was a certain amount of luck involved. But he said himself after the season that it had brought him to his absolute physical limits. And he asked for help in the backfield prior to 2022 season. Neither Larry Rountree nor Sony Michel proved capable of providing that help, though, so Ekeler was on his own again. And made through yet another bellcow season.
So, can he pull off a third one in a row? Will the Chargers even attempt to pull that off?
And that’s where my pessimism for Ekeler in 2023 stems from. I neither expect him to retain the bellcow role, nor do I expect him to play all 17 games.
Ekeler’s contract expires after 2023, he’ll become a UFA. His salary is pretty low for an RB of his caliber. His contract value barely makes into the top 10 among RBs, and 75% of that contract is behind him.
Will he want to play on that contract in 2023, knowing fully well he won’t get a substantial new one afterwards? Ekeler is a very humble guy, one of the reasons why I like him. But to be perfectly honest, I think he’d be ill advised if he did.
If the Chargers will give him a 2 year extension this offseason, I’ll have to review the situation. But I’m not sure they will.
Then, there’s the team outlook. Mike Williams and especially Keenan Allen are getting old, and it shows. Unless they get traded, both will be around in 2023, but both will hardly be any better than in 2022. Josh Palmer has proven that he cannot replace them. And Justin Herbert, talented as he is, struggles with getting the W home in key matches.
I’m not optimistic for the entire Chargers team in 2023. They haven’t developed much as a team in recent years, they are in the bottom quarter in terms of cap space, they don’t have a good draft position, and their key players are getting old.
In fantasy football, I call this the mediocrity trap. Too good for a good draft pick, but not good enough to be a contender. A team that’s on the playoff bubble every year, but even if they make it, they don’t survive the first round.
Either they will launch a full retool in 2023 already, which could mean that Ekeler might get traded. Or they will make another attempt with their current roster. And I don’t see why that should end any better, now that their already pretty old players are yet another year older.
And finally, even if the Chargers get it together, play another decent season, and Ekeler retains his role and shows no sign of ageing: can we really expect him to pull off a third injury-free bellcow season in a row? It’s not unheard of in the NFL, but it doesn’t happen very often, either.
If the stars align, Ekeler might well enjoy another top 10, possibly top 5 season. He has shown that he can do it, and his age alone doesn’t worry me too much yet.
But the combination of his contract situation, the team situation, and his usage in the last 3 seasos is enough for me to be concerned about his 2023 outlook, to a point where I’d not treat him as a top 10 prospect right now.
That may change, if the Chargers give him a new contract and pull off a strong draft. These are only the way-too-early projections. But in them, yes, Ekeler is absent from my top 12.