Players to Target and to Avoid in 2022

Here are my top players I’m higher (target) and lower (avoid) on than ADP.
Numbers in brackets: (my positional ranking / positional ADP)

All based on full PPR.

QBs to target:
Dak Prescott (5/8) +3
Jameis Winston (13/23) +10 :heart_on_fire:
Mitchell Trubisky (17/34) +17 (risky, not a guaranteed starter)

QBs to avoid:
Joe Burrow (11/6) -5
Russell Wilson (16/11) -5
Justin Fields (27/17) -10 :cold_face:

RBs to target:
Najee Harris (1/5) +4 :heart_on_fire:
Tony Pollard (22/31) +9 :heart_on_fire:
Nyheim Hines (26/45) +19 :heart_on_fire: :heart_on_fire:
Rhamondre Stevenson (28/35) +7 (gap is closing fast)
Melvin Gordon (29/36) +7
Rachaad White (34/57) +23 :heart_on_fire: :heart_on_fire:

RBs to avoid:
Austin Ekeler (6/2) -4
Dalvin Cook (11/6) -5
Elijah Mitchell (43/21) -22 :cold_face: :cold_face:
Antonio Gibson (51/24) -27 :cold_face: :cold_face: :cold_face:
Chase Edmonds (57/34) -23 :cold_face: :cold_face:

WRs to target:
CeeDee Lamb (3/8) +5 :heart_on_fire:
Michael Pittman (4/13) +9 :heart_on_fire: :heart_on_fire:
Jaylen Waddle (9/15) +6 :heart_on_fire:
Amon-Ra St. Brown (13/22) +9 :heart_on_fire:
Chris Olave (18/45) +27 :heart_on_fire: :heart_on_fire: :heart_on_fire:
Rashod Bateman (20/38) +18 :heart_on_fire:
Jalen Tolbert (32/69) +37 :heart_on_fire: :heart_on_fire:
KJ Osborn (48/78) +30 :heart_on_fire: :heart_on_fire:
Nico Collins (50/76) +26 :heart_on_fire:
Josh Palmer (51/70) +19 :heart_on_fire:

WRs to avoid:
Deebo Samuel (19/6) -13 :cold_face: :cold_face: :cold_face:
D.J. Moore (23/16) -7
Terry McLaurin (33/17) -16 :cold_face: :cold_face:
Adam Thielen (40/28) -12 :cold_face:

TEs to target:
Tyler Higbee (11/22) +11 :heart_on_fire:
Robert Tonyan (12/20) +8 (risky, health concerns)

TEs to avoid:
Kyle Pitts (7/3) -4
Noah Fant (23/15) -8 :cold_face:

Let’s see after the season how I did.

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Given the truth of your qualifier, why are you recommending to target Trubisky?

Oh, now I see why you din’t have Zeke among your top 12 RBs.

You list 6 RBs to target, and only one of them is a starter–heck, one of them is currently at least third on the depth chart (White). I guess my standards are a little higher, but most of the players I want to target are starters.

And then you have about four #3s or worse among WRs. Man, I’d love to see your fantasy teams (or play against them for a lot of money)!

For someone who claims to be the know-it-all of fantasy football, you sometimes show a surprising lack of understanding the basics of the game.

Here, you pretend to not understand ADP, and what it means if you have a player higher (or lower) in your rankings than his current ADP?

I’d be happy to explain it, I’m nothing if not helpful. But something tells me you’re just acting dumb on purpose here. So I’ll pass.

Good luck for your season!

Well great, you project some third stringer to perform like the #178th overall player instead of the #195th player, so you should target him.

Um, no, you should target players who are legitimate candidates to contribute to a championship team.

I guess you’re pretending not to understand how fantasy points work, but something tells me you’re just acting dumb on purpose here, so I’ll pass on explaining it to you.

In case anyone visited this thread in search of useful information…

Round Target Avoid
1 Derrick Henry Christian McCaffrey
Jonathan Taylor Austin Ekeler
Justin Jefferson Cooper Kupp
Najee Harris Ja’Marr Chase
D’Andre Swift
Joe Mixon
2 Davante Adams Alvin Kamara
Saquon Barkley Travis Kelce
CeeDee Lamb Deebo Samuel
Leonard Fournette
Aaron Jones
3 Ezekiel Elliott Tyreek Hill
James Conner Josh Allen
Mike Evans A.J. Brown
Travis Etienne David Montgomery
Keenan Allen
4 J.K. Dobbins Kyle Pitts
Patrick Mahomes Breece Hall
5 Diontae Johnson Antonio Gibson
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Brandin Cooks
6 Allen Robinson
Chris Godwin
Devin Singletary
7 Juju Smith-Schuster Joe Burrow
Cordarrelle Patterson Rashaad Penny
Kareem Hunt
8 Dallas Goedert Melvin Gordon
Damien Harris James Cook
Allen Lazard
Robert Woods
9 Zach Ertz Trey Lance
Brandon Aiyuk
10 Derek Carr
Tyler Lockett
Cole Kmet
11 Kirk Cousins
Brian Robinson, Jr.
12 Khalil Herbert
13 Romeo Doubs
Jarvis Landry
Michael Gallup
14 Robert Tonyan
15 Marlon Mack
Jameis Winston
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
DeVante Parker
16+ Nico Collins
Evan Engram
Daniel Jones

I worry heavily about Trubisky. A guy offered me a trade of Laviska Shenault and a late draft pick for Trubisky, and I countered with a different offer for Baker Mayfield. Kenny Pickett has looked solid in the preseason. It’s hard to see Trubisky lasting.

I couldn’t agree with these choices more.

I am seeing Najee in mocks going around the 7/8 pick. That makes this a +6 at least.

I have seen these two drop a lot in mock drafts lately, and I end up with one or both of them frequently. I don’t understand the hate for these two. Waddle has already shown he can play well with Tua, and Brown is easily the best WR in Detroit until Jameson Williams shows up later this season (maybe).

This one is all dependent on Michael Thomas. If Thomas actually shows up to play, he could dominate the target share. On the other hand, if Thomas is the strawman he has shown himself to be over the last few years, Olave could rule here.

11th best TE is still mediocre. With TE’s, you get elite, or gamble on a prospect to break out. The TE position is mostly ugly.

This is one I’ll take all the time. He will only get better.

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That’s the trick. There is a risk that Trubisky will lose his starting job - if he even holds it in week 1. As long as he starts, he is a mid-range QB2, thanks to his rushing upside and the solid passing offense in Pittsburgh. But we don’t know how many regular season games he will start. Could be anywhere between 0 and 17.

I based the ADP values on the FantasyPros ADP overview. The individual results on different platforms can indeed vary quite a bit.

People are concerned about Tyreek Hill. And I would agree with them if there were 3-4 more prolific pass catchers in Miami that Waddle has to share targets with. But there aren’t. There’s Gesicki. The end. The volume for Waddle is still there, and Tyreek will even open doors for him by attracting the top CBs’ attention. I wouldn’t be surprised if Waddle finished ahead of Tyreek. But both are top 12 in my book.

As for Amon-Ra: I had initially projected Williams to play 8 games. But I have now reduced him to zero. Even if he will see the field this year, I don’t think he will be utilized a lot.

I have Michael Thomas at WR25. So I did not fade him entirely. I’m expecting a similar situation as in Minnesota, with Jefferson and Thielen. With Winston under center, there will be enough passing volume to support 2 solid WRs.

I agree. If I cannot get a top guy, I usually stream the position. But I don’t think you’ll regret spending a late round pick on Higbee.

He will, and in dynasty, he’s the most valuable TE, along with Mark Andrews. But I just don’t see him having a top 5 season this year. I see him going very early in redraft leagues, and I’m not ready to spend so much draft capital on him.

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Don’t forget Jarvis Landry! If Thomas hits the MASH unit, Landry could thrive.

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Anybody who referred to you for “useful information” in 2021 fell victim to gems like these:

“I’d keep Gibson for a 2nd round pick over Taylor for a first round pick.”
(Taylor finished as RB1, Gibson as RB10)

Robby Anderson in the 11th over Diontae Johnson in the 5th, because “Robby was a top 20 WR in PPR scoring last season (Johnson was not), and now he gets Darnold back as his QB.”
(Diontae finished as WR8, Anderson as WR49)

CeeDee Lamb over Jonathan Taylor or Keenan Allen.
(Lamb finished as WR19, Allen as WR11, Taylor as RB1)

“There’s no way (Jonathan Taylor) returns better than RB2 performance this season, so you’d only play him in Kamara’s and Elliott’s bye weeks.”
(Taylor finished as RB1, Elliott as RB6, Kamara as RB8)

“I’d be hard pressed to take Ekeler and his career-high 3 rushing TDs in a season in the 4th round if he was still on the board at that point.”
(Ekeler finished the season as RB2 overall)

“The #1 overall RB (Henry), for sure.”
(Henry finished as RB22)

I almost admire how you still maintain your “I’m the greatest, my s**t don’t stink” attitude in the light of such useful information.


Other than that, I don’t see a lot of players on your list on which we’d fundamentally disagree. Only your list is applicable only to 12-team single-QB leagues, whereas mine works for all sizes and draft strategies. Big whoop.


Thanks Zak! You saved me a lot of research time there! But didn’t we all know the Elf’s record was “dwarfed” by his ego! :rofl:


I’m curious about Kamara on your Avoid list in the 2nd round. Is that just based on the uncertainty of his availability, or something more?

Somewhat… uncertainty about the offense… uncertainty about his usage… I just think there are better options with more certainty.

Can’t decide which take is worse, yours, or the original poster?

Let the unfolding of the season be your guide.