First draft of the year

Fantasy Draft Talk
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I forgot to talk about how my first rookie draft went down this year. I was 10th out of 12 picks in the first round of a superflex PPR dynasty league that is quite deep:

1.01 Bijan Robinson: No shock here.

1.02 Bryce Young: This is a semi-safe pick here. Not my first choice though.

1.03 Anthony Richardson: This is the “shoot for the moon” pick. Could be another Jalen Hurts, or could be Malik Willis. This might have been my pick in the 1.02.

1.04 CJ Stroud: After the first 3 picks, this was the only possible choice. If i wanted a safe 1.02 pick, it’d be Stroud.

1.05 Jahmyr Gibbs: The logical pick here. Remember, this is superflex PPR. But I love Gibbs for other leagues.

1.06 Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The best description I’ve heard about JSN is “high floor, low ceiling”. Unfortunately, he’s in Seattle, so that high floor just got a little lower. Maybe next year…

1.07 Quentin Johnston: I’d have taken Q with the 1.06. He just has more upside both right away and long term.

1.08 Jordan Addison: I also like Addison better than JSN, but only for this year.

1.09 Zay Flowers: Not a fan of this pick. Way too early for a 5’9" WR on a team that likes to run first.

1.10 Kendre Miller: This was my pick. If you look at the Saints depth chart, you have the established starter in Kamara, who is 27 and who had 280 touches and 4 td’s last year. Plus the fact he will likely be suspended at the start of the season. #2 is Jamaal Williams, who is older at 28. Williams will likely carry the burden when Kamara is out. I won’t say Miller will start this season, but I think he is one to watch in coming seasons, not to mention he is just an injury away from serious playing time.

1.11 Dalton Kincaid: I love this pick. I was tempted, but this isn’t a “Kyle Pitts”-level 1st round pick. Yes Kincaid is excellent. There are plenty of solid TE’s later, and Kincaid is easily one of the top 2. For the record, TE Michael Mayer went with the 2.5 pick.

1.12 Devon Achane: Another small 3rd down RB. He gets a good landing spot in Miami, but this is too early for me. WR Jonathan Mingo went with the 2.01 pick, and I like that a lot better!

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Going Bijan with the 1.01 is a no-brainer. even in SFLEX.

As for the QBs, I agree. If you are looking for upside with risk, Richardson is your man. If you prefer to play it safer, it’s Stroud. Young should be the #3 in both scenarios.

No argument about Gibbs being a top 5 pick in SFLEX.

Yes, the Seahawks play a low-volume passing offense. Yet they still managed to produce two top-15 WRs, and may do so yet again. I would probably prefer Johnston myself, but not by a huge margin.

As for Addison, did everybody forget that a certain Justin Jefferson plays for the same team? A team that also features T.J. Hockenson and K.J. Osborn? And that is likely to change QBs in the near future? Yes, Thielen is gone. But Thielen was the #32 WR last year, without being injured or missing time. So where is all the volume supposed to come from that people appear to project for Addison?

Zay Flowers is not a 1st round pick for me. I’d rather take my chances on Kincaid or Mayer. The Ravens are fantasy poison for WRs.

Kendre Miller is not a terrible pick, the upside is there. Might be a bit of a reach, but if you need an RB, don’t get offers for trading back and don’t want to take any chances, there’s worse picks than him.

I would have taken Mayer over Kincaid. Even LaPorta and Musgrave may have found better landing spots, unless the reason for Josh Allen ignoring the TE position was indeed only Dawson Knox.

Achane in the 1st was a reach.

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I think Addison is as good as any of the rookie WRs with none being a great pick.
Thielin is 32 and his play has dropped off a bit the last year as have his avg and TD’s. If they planned on featuring Osborn they would not have drafted Addison in the first. He gets 80-90 targets and 5-6 TD’s which I expect to decrease.

I can see Addison getting over 120 targets and 8o catches with 6 TD’s as a starting point. Here’s a quick evaluation from FP’s Derek Brown who I respect.

Addison is fluid and silky smooth through his routes. He’s quick in and out of his breaks. He displays nuance in his routes with pacing, subtle head fakes, and his understanding of leverage. His change of direction ability is effortless. He can gear down easily and jab step during a route without losing speed. Addison has a decent burst after the catch, but it’s not likely to ever be a calling card. He dealt with drops early in his collegiate career, with 14.3% and 9.9% drop rates before 2022. He displayed growth here in 2022, decreasing that mark to 3.3%. He has strong hands, though, with contested catch rates of 53.8% and 55.6% before 2022.

Addison will never be confused as a body catcher as he routinely plucks the ball from the air away from this body. Addison is a versatile wide receiver that played from the slot in 2020-2021 (68.0-82.6%) before transitioning to the boundary (75.5% out wide) in 2022. His superb route running and short area separation skills allow him to play multiple roles fluidly. Addison’s varied release package at this stage of his career is impressive. Addison reminds me of watching DeVonta Smith with a difference in play strength. Smith played above his weight class, but Addison played at his weight.

Derek Brown - FantasyPros

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Osborn saw ~90 targets in 2 consecutive seasons now. Towards the end of 2022, he looked spectacular at times. While the Vikings obviously did not trust him to fill a #2 or even #1b role, I would not count on him to disappear either. At least not as long as Cousins is still there.

And lets not forget that Hockenson will also get a piece of the pie.

On the plus side, the Vikings still do not have an outrageous number of pass catchers in their ranks. And they were a top 3 passing offense in 2022. And with their backfield not getting any stronger, they might be able to repeat that.

Thielen and Cook (assuming he’ll be released) leave a combined 163 targets vacant. Mattison doesn’t profile as much of a pass catcher. So there should be plenty of volume left to feast upon. 80 catches and 6 TDs do seem like a realistic projection for Addison. In half PPR, that would leave him with around 180 FP, which would make him a solid mid-range WR2. And that is certainly not bad at all for a rookie WR.

But going by some things I hear and read about Addison, people seem to expect a lot more from him. And that’s what I don’t see. Not this year, but not in the future, either.

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Agreed, a solid mid-rage WR 2 for a rookie would make me happy. Derek comps him to DeVonte Smith which could happen but I see him as a safe pick with an upside.

At the top of this draft past the top two that is about as good as it gets.

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I see 4 WR’s worthy of a 1st round/early 2nd round pick: JSN, Q, Addison, and Mingo. Beyond them, the WR position is pretty barren.

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Yeah but no one worth a 3, 4, or 5. I keep remembering last year’s WRs. Day and night.

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