Just looking down the list of top 10 RB’s after 2 weeks, full PPR. It is pretty shocking, to say the least (showing the points):
Nick Chubb: 47.6
Saquon Barkley: 45.2
D’Andre Swift: 43.2
Aaron Jones: 42.6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 38.2
James Robinson: 35.7
Jonathan Taylor: 34.8
Joe Mixon: 32.8
Christian McCaffrey: 32.5
10: Kareem Hunt: 32.4
Now to the top 10 WR’s:
Stefon Diggs: 71.0
Cooper Kupp: 63.6
Tyreek Hill: 60.0
Amon-Ra St.Brown: 59.8
Jaylen Waddle: 57.8
Justin Jefferson: 50.2
Christian Kirk: 43.5
Curtis Samuel: 42.1
Michael Thomas: 41.2
10: Ja’Marr Chase: 39.7
News flash: This fantasy market has changed, dramatically! The top RB would rank between the WR6 and WR7. The bottom WR would rank between RB4 and RB5. It’s a brave new world we are in, but will it continue?
To be honest, I expect the top WR’s will continue to dominate. But I think we are starting to see the devolution of the RB position. For those people running a zero RB draft strategy, you’re looking good now.
Might be a bit early to call it a trend. And even if it continues - is it even a new trend? In 2021, the #10 WR in my PPR league was Keenan Allen with 259.8 points. That would have made him the #5 RB, which was James Conner with 258.7 points.
With that being said, I expected a stronger WR year. For projection purposes, I keep a 5 year average for passing and rushing stats. 2021 was the weakest passing year in that time span.
The 5 year average was 235.3 passing yards per game. In 2021, it was 228.3 pyds/g, which was the lowest in 5 years. 2020 was the highest, with 240.2 pyds/g.
2021 was also the year with the lowest yards per completion. In prior years, that stat was always at 10.5 or 10.6. Last year, it was 10.2.
So we may see nothing else than a return to average values after a down year in terms of passing production.
This analysis makes the apples-to-oranges error–it’s not how RBs and WRs compare to each other, but how they compare to other RBs and WRs, respectively. If there are 25 WRs that all score over 200 fantasy points, but only five RBs that do, then I damn sure want one of those five RBs and a WR can wait.
Great info and opinions. I’m gonna wait two more weeks to pass initial judgement as I always do. I believe that doing so earlier is judging players on Who they did vs What they did.
I have a feel after two weeks but do not yet know who is who. Guys like HOFers
Pollian and Tuna said it takes a month to sort out who is who. Not about to dispute them and many others saying the same.
I am not drawing too many conclusions here on any of these players. But it is intriguing to notice the difference between the WR’s and the RB’s. The top RB is only 15 points higher than the 10th, yet the top WR is over 31 points higher than the 10th WR.
We’ll see if any of the RB’s can gain separation from the rest as the season progresses, but right now, it looks like the elite WR’s are where the value is.
Granted and agreed Ed, I just really do not know how this will shake out. The “no play zone” in preseason for many vets hurt the start as said by many a coach and former player.