FantasyPros has been around long enough now that I’m assuming the data is out there to determine who has been the most accurate over the years.
Has anyone dug through the data to find who the most accurate Dynasty Experts are?
If I were to guess I’d say Pat Fitzmaurice and Jacob Gibbs would be on the list.
I guess that depends on how you define ‘accuracy’. I asked myself that question after doing full player projections for the first time last year, and asked myself afterwards how well I did.
The easiest approach would be to compare the projected rank with the final season one. But if a player performed as predicted, but dropped in rank because he missed 3 games, has my prediction then been inaccurate?
Also, rank is one thing, actual production another one. If I project a player to finish the season as RB#8, and he finishes as RB#12, my projection may look inaccurate at first. But was it? In 2019, RB#8 and RB#12 were only 4.8 total points apart. In 2018, the difference was 84.8 points.
I’m not trying to be a wise guy here. Just saying that there may be no universal metric for accuracy.
Believe it or not, I listen to their projections, and then consider them as the year goes on.
I still remember Kyle Yates last year, arguing for CMC and Jonnu Smith. We all know how those panned out. That said, I still appreciate his perspective, even if I disagree with him a lot.
Fitzmaurice is earning my respect all the time, but I won’t commit to an opinion until later this season.
Frankly, a lot of so-called experts are driving me crazy with their insistence on CMC being a top draft pick, after 2 years of literally a few games. And don’t get me started on the Saquon fans among them! Just give the fantasy experts a great year or two, and they will love you forever!
To me, a 1st round pick should have a rock solid floor. And yet, Derrick Henry is still there (at #2 overall) after missing a good chunk of last season with a broken foot. The credentials required to be an “expert” must be really low!
Rant off.
I like Yates and Erickson because they always explain why they rank players the way they do, in a way that I understand. That allows me to disagree with them on certain players, if I don’t agree with their premise. Which is great.
Fitz also does that very well. And he also strikes me as reflected. He will listen to community feedback and even adjust his rankings if you manage to convince him. Which isn’t easy (and that’s a good thing), but I’ve seen it happen.
Can’t say that about all the analysts there. Just the other day, I questioned a player ranking in one of the recent podcasts, adding a link to one of my recent threads here in the FantasyPros forum to explain my reasoning. And got moderated. 
I wouldn’t call myself an expert, but it’s still good to know that I live in your head rent-free. #CMCRB1 
Joking aside, CMC is a good example why reasoning is so important. You say that you don’t believe in him playing more games than in recent years. Which is a perfectly possible outcome. And usually, I would agree, as I don’t believe in miracle comebacks or Cinderella stories. They do happen, but they are impossible to predict, if you ask me.
The reason why I’m ready to make an exception for CMC is the nature of his injuries. No broken bones, no torn ligaments, never injured the same body part twice. I see a chance (!) that he may (!) stay healthier this year. And if he does - well, we all know what he does when on the field. But I never recommend CMC without pointing out out the risk connected to him. He’s tagged with the ‘injury prone’ label, and few players manage to lose it again later in their career.
At least, we do agree on Saquon.
That is exactly how I follow them.
You can argue about the type of injury, but it is still the body breaking down. Best to avoid that mess.