Does SOS Matter?

In the rop ten, McCaffrey, Ekeler, Kupp and Jefferson all project difficult schedules. Does that make any difference to you?

For me it does not now but will on who I play during the season, especially DST.

I tried to find a connection between SOS and player performance last year. Didn’t find any, though I didn’t do any game-by-game data analysis.

For the moment, I mostly ignore SOS. First, it’s based on last year’s data. And last year’s champion can be this year’s bust.

Second, for fantasy purposes, it doesn’t matter if a team wins or loses games. What matters is how much they score. I’d take a team that loses 38-44 over one that wins 17-10 any day. Wins don’t give FFP, yards and TDs do.

And “strong schedule” can easily mean “shootouts aplenty”. Whereas a weak schedule can lead to burning the clock and giving second-string players some snaps.

As for DST, I evaluate them by 2 factors: how many points did their upcoming opponent score on averge (less = better)? And how did the DST I am considering perform so far, compared to how they should have performed?

E.g., if looking for a DST to stream in week 8, I may have 2 candidates. One is DST #9 at the moment, the other DST #22. Both play the #16/#17 offense.

If the DST #9 had the weakest schedule so far, it means they have been underperfoming. If they now play against a mediocre opponent, they could struggle.

If the DST #22 had the toughest schedule in weeks 1-7, it means they have been overperforming. Now they are playing against an opponent who is weaker than those they faced so far, which can lead to fantasy goodness.

The method isn’t foolproof, but delivered good results last year.

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In season I look at the team defending a RB for example, how they rank vs run, who they played and what all other RB’s have done against them.

For D I look for the worst O and team then the D they are playing. It worked well.

Of course it matters, it’s just not something that can be determined at the time of the draft, so for practical purposes, it can be ignored.