TIER 1: ELITE TARGET EARNERS WHO MAKE THE MOST OUT OF THEIR OPPORTUNITIES
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Jefferson | MIN |
| 2 | Ja’Marr Chase | CIN |
| 3 | Tyreek Hill | MIA |
| 4 | Cooper Kupp | LAR |
While the previous season’s points-per-game totals aren’t everything, each wide receiver within this tier averaged over 20 PPR points per game in 2022. And while others were close, the receivers in this group are in the best situations to repeat in 2023 — they all averaged 10 or more targets per game in pass-heavy offenses a season ago and shouldn’t be in danger of losing that target share this coming season.
Justin Jefferson is almost unquestionably the WR1 at this point, never finishing below WR7 in a season since he entered the league three years ago and most recently finishing as the overall PPR WR1.
Ja’Marr Chase played just 12 games last season, but he still did enough to finish within the top 12 PPR wide receivers. We’ve yet to see Chase reach his full potential in the NFL, but he has Joe Burrow at quarterback and we have already seen glimpses of his dominance through two seasons, and that cements him as a top-tier wide receiver.
Tyreek Hill changed teams in 2023, yet he still recorded his second WR2 PPR finish over the past three seasons. The speedy veteran led the position in yards per route run (3.20) by a large margin and was targeted on more than 30% of his routes a season ago. Even at 29 years old, Hill figures to run it back in Miami as an elite fantasy option.
Cooper Kupp appeared in only nine games last season after finishing as the overall WR1 the year before, and while some were disappointed with his season, everything he did in those nine games proved that 2021 was no fluke. From Weeks 1-9, Kupp was the WR2 overall and ranked second in the league in targets (90), receiving yards (813) and receiving touchdowns (6). With Kupp and Matthew Stafford back healthy for 2023, expect the fantasy points to continue funneling in Kupp’s direction.
TIER 2: IN THE CONVERSATION WITH THE BEST OF THE BEST
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Stefon Diggs | BUF |
| 6 | A.J. Brown | PHI |
| 7 | Davante Adams | LV |
| 8 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL |
| 9 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ |
| 10 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA |
| 11 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET |
| 12 | DeVonta Smith | PHI |
Each player within this tier earned a target rate above 21% and was among the best in the league at maximizing their opportunities.
Stefon Diggs got open at a higher rate (53.0%) than any other receiver within this tier, and with Josh Allen throwing his way on 26.0% of his receiving snaps last season, expect that connection to prosper once again.
A season ago, A.J. Brown (2.59), Davante Adams (2.45) and CeeDee Lamb (2.38) all finished inside the top 10 at their position in yards per route run, one of the most predictive metrics to lean on for receivers. That alone is an encouraging sign that they can push to repeat their high-end WR1 finishes.
Garrett Wilson is the only receiver within this tier who didn’t average more than 15 PPR points per game in 2022. Still, he can be forgiven because of the Jets’ spotty quarterback play and everything else he did as a rookie in spite of it. Aaron Rodgers is upgrading the quarterback position in New York, a needed boost for Wilson’s fantasy stock: In 2022, just 66% of his targets were deemed catchable by PFF, whereas 73.1% of Rodgers’ passes were charted as catchable.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is another exciting young wide receiver whose underlying metrics back up his top-eight finish last season. St. Brown averaged a very strong 2.40 yards per route run, tied for eighth at the position, and his 28.8% target rate finished second only to Tyreek Hill among receivers who played at least 100 receiving snaps. Expectations should continue to be high for the Lions’ top receiver, even with some added competition for targets in that offense this season.
DeVonta Smith rounds out the top 12 and the Tier 2 options. His talent is undeniable, but he commanded the lowest target rate among the receivers in the first two tiers last season and joins Garrett Wilson as the only top-12-ranked receivers not to clear 2.00 yards per route run last season. Smith will sit right on the fringe of WR1 territory as we head into draft season.