I’ll tag Robinson. After recovering from TWO gunshot wounds (to the LEG) suffered in August, Robinson had a 12-game season that put him on pace for 1,210 combined yards in a 17-game season.
Sam Howell is no Patrick Mahomes, but former Chiefs’ Offensive Coordinator (and former RB) Eric Bienemy will find ways to get the ball into Robinson’s hands.
It would be nice to see Robinson score more TDs, but it is of note that Chiefs’ RB Jerick McKinnon scored more receiving TDs last season (9) than Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson (8), so there’s that.
Considering how much Josh McDummie likes to run the ball, White could have a big year with Jacobs out.
Looking at his stats tells another story as well. He had 4.1 yards per carry on 17 carries, but absolutely no receptions, which tells me he wasn’t used on passing downs at all. That’s usually a sign of an RB who hasn’t mastered pass blocking yet. Hopefully, with a second training camp under his belt, he can pick it up. Otherwise, he ends up being another Ronald Jones.
Looking at his stats in even more detail tells yet another story. He had 2 games in which he managed to escape on one run each: week 4 vs the Broncos, and week 12 in Seattle.
If you look at the rest of his games…
Week 2 vs ARI: 1 Att for 2 Yd
Week 5 at KC: 1 Att for -7 Yd
Week 7 vs HOU: 1 Att for 2 Yd
Week 9 at JAX: 1 Att for -1 Yd
Week 10 vs IND: 2 Att for -1 Yd
Week 13 vs LAC: 2 Att for 6 Yd
Week 14 at LAR: 3 Att for 9 Yd
Week 15 vs NE: 1 Att for 4 Yd
Week 18 vs KC: 1 Att for 4 Yd
Total in this weeks: 13 Att for 18 Yd (1.4 YPC).
If there is a breakout story hidden in those stats, then it’s well and deeply hidden. I guess you need to wear Raiders goggles to see it.
He is, but even healthy last year, his 17 game pace over the 15 games he played was 200 yards less than Robinson’s 17 game pace over the 12 games that he played COMING BACK FROM TWO GUNSHOT WOUNDS TO THE LEG!
Gibson’s had his shot (no pun intended), and has never proven to be anything special. Robinson will very likely be the lead back for the Commanders, at least in terms of fantasy value, in 2023.
You make a good point, however… just from a talent stand point I stick by what I said. This is in part because the Bills will be in the most positive game script, then the Commanders, then the Jets (this season).
This is why I ranked him 3rd of the 3. Keep in mind that they also just got done playing the Cowboys, who are the #1 run defense in the league and I’m sure the Jets coaching staff knew that. This is figuratively why they gave the entire backfield so little carries, but that won’t be a feature going forward because of Wilson. Also that he just ripped off 147 AP yards on just 11 touches, against a mid tier Bills run D, with effectively no Rodgers the whole game. Hall is averaging 9.7 YPC through 2. The Jets strength is clearly in their backfield and when they signed Cook, I saw that almost as an insurance policy to not only Hall, but Rodgers as well. A type of negative serendipity ultimately I suppose.
J.C. has 37 touches so far and averages 5.8 YPC - picking up right where he left off last year - though 222 AP yards - which is about a quarter of all of the yards he had last year, through only 2 weeks though. This is bell cow level production, with positive regression soon to come on the T.D’s because of the weight of the above stats. He did have - what appears to be - two easy matchups, but if he were to play the whole season, this would pace him out for almost 1,900 AP yards in his second season (first starting). Though if you consider the positive matchups, more likely, safely around 1,750 AP yards.
By comparison, Bri Rob is averaging 3.9 YPC. on 195 AP yards (these are A.J. Dillon numbers), while also barely being involved in the passing game. What makes him stand out is three touchdowns. But there’s no way I would take him over those other two RBs right now. Negative regression should show up for him sooner than later on the TDs and with the iffy schedule he has coming up over the next 5 - only one of them is a plus. I would also never take him in a dynasty over those other two either.