14 drafts in 14 days!

Fantasy Draft Talk
21

Number Thirteen (#59)

For my final managed league and final auction draft, we will be participating in a $250 Yahoo Public Prize League–10 teams, half-PPR scoring, single flex.

So for this one, I was Salmon Guy. Well, not quite, but I definitely pushed the envelope of the “Studs & Scrubs” auction strategy. I don’t usually like to do that, but I’ve been drafting so many deep rosters lately that I’m sitting there looking at my blank roster before the draft starts, thinking, "I only have to fill like five starting positions and a flex? (TEs, Ks and Ds are all like dollar players to me anyway–or pretty close.)

It’s a very shallow draft… 10 teams x 15 players, and 2 of them are a K and a D… so only 130 skill players drafted? There’s bound to be a lot of meat left in the Dollar Store–and on the waiver wire…

I did some quick math in my head… $35 for Mahomes, $55 for a RB1, $40 for a RB2, $30 for a WR1 and $25 for a WR2 would be $185, leaving me $15 for a Flex and the support positions… I’mma gonna give it a shot…

So I get Derrick Henry at the 11th nomination for $56, which wasn’t all that great at the time, as it was third behind CMC ($70) and Cook ($57), but only a dollar more than Zeke, Kamara and Taylor at $55. Then later when Aaron Jones became the subject of the “last elite RB” bidding war, he went for $67, and Chubb commanded $58 shortly thereafter, so I felt a lot better about getting what I consider to be the best player in the draft for what was essentially tied for the 8th-highest price. But I’m $1 over budget…

The very next nomination was CeeDee Lamb, my preferred WR2. I get him for $26. Cool… but now I’m $2 over budget…

They’re coming fast and furious now; Patrick Mahomes comes out with the 15th nomination, and I win him for $31. Awesome! Now I’m $2 UNDER budget!

Was kind of hoping for maybe Aaron Jones at RB2, but the bidding war ended any chance of that. Thought about Barkley then, but he went too far over my budget at $46. My own nomination, Antonio Gibson, also hit that mark. And then it was Mixon at nom #25. I get him for $42 (13th among RBs)–exactly back on budget!

Then a bunch of mid-range WRs came out for many of the next 15 picks, and by the time we were just passing the 40th nomination, the top two WRs–indeed, the top two players on the draft board–were DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley. I’mma gettin’ me one…

Hopkins comes out first and I’m dismayed as he climbs past 30, but I bid 32, and I’m outbid, and I figure I’m not getting any good Flex player for $5 anyway, I might as well blow my wad, and I bid $34… and win! But there goes $4 of the $15 I had budgeted to round out my roster.

So I have a starting five of Mahomes, Henry, Mixon, Hopkins and Lamb, with 10 open roster slots and $11 to fill them.

LOL

Ok, but I’m sporting a starting five that look like they were drafted in a 6-teamer.

Now to wait for the dollar store to open…

One thing happened in this draft that hadn’t happened once in like 20 auction drafts this preseason–I nominated someone I didn’t want, and no one else wanted him either. And that’s why I have Fournette. The guy who has Ronald Jones has like four other RBs ahead of him, so he probly doesn’t want Fournette, and I don’t want Jones from him. So I’m probly gonna end up dumping Fournette back into the waiver pool for Bryan Edwards or something when the waivers clear on Friday.

I was kind of hoping I might be able to get Kenny Golladay or Brandin Cooks for my last $2, but Golladay went for $3 and I wasn’t able to bid $2 on Cooks fast enough, so he went to someone else for $2… and I ended up dropping my deuce on Mike Gesicki, to help round out the starting lineup with a quality TE.

Every other slot on my roster (Flex, K, D and 6 bench slots) was filled with $1 players. So it’s a pretty extreme example of the “Studs & Scrubs” strategy–but I think I kinda like it.

All I have to do is hit on one quality waiver wire pickup during the season to strengthen my flex position–and keep my starters healthy–and I should win going away.

QB: Patrick Mahomes (12) $31
RB: Derrick Henry (13) $56, Joe Mixon (10) $42, Tevin Coleman (6) $1, Mark Ingram (10) $1, Phillip Lindsay (10) $1, Leonard Fournette (9) $1
WR: DeAndre Hopkins (12) $34, CeeDee Lamb (7) $26, Mike Williams (7) $1, Marvin Jones, Jr. (7) $1, Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) $1
TE: Mike Gesicki (14) $2
K: Matt Prater (12) $1
DST: Pittsburgh Steelers (7) $1
REMAINING: $0

1 to go…

22

By the way… Yahoo awarded him the “Best Draft” medal.

LOL!

23

NUMBER FOURTEEN! (#60!)

So I plop down my last $20 of the 2021 preseason on the final Yahoo Best Ball league of the year–and wonder of wonders–I draw pick #2! Three straight top 3 picks!

So I figure I’m going to add another Derrick Henry team to my portfolio. But then the #1 pick takes Dalvin Cook, and a funny feeling comes over me and I decide to do something different for this, the last draft of 2020, and I take my first share of Christian McCaffrey. So either I’m screwed in this one–or in the other 59.

1.2 Christian McCaffrey
2.9 DeAndre Hopkins - Had the choice of Joe Mixon here, but with an early draft position, I’m set up for Gus Edwards and the Mostert/Sermon coup at the 6/7 turn, so with Hopkins still on the board at the end of the 2nd, I go WR instead, figuring I’ll pair him with CeeDee Lamb around the corner and still be fine on RBs later.
3.2 Joe Mixon - And then the bastid takes Lamb on the 2/3 turn! Curses! But looky here, he din’t take Mixon. So I guess I’ll be going for global domination with RBs after all. To me this doesn’t look a whole lot different than my common Henry/Mixon/Lamb starts, though I suppose the “consensus” says this is better.
4.9 Gus Edwards - Having good RBs already, I was hoping Robert Woods might fall here–but he falls at 4.07. So back to back RBs it is…
5.2 Damien Harris - Global domination achieved.
6.9 Brandon Aiyuk - With both Aiyuk and Thielen having late fifth-round ADPs, I was just hoping and praying that one of them fell… and I feel extremely lucky that one did. Aiyuk bails out my heretofore neglected WR corps.
7.2 Robby Anderson - And another top 20 WR around the corner makes it all worthwhile.
8.9 Matthew Stafford - I was going to go with Golladay here and Stafford around the corner in the 9th, but I checked out the turn guy’s roster, and he had like 4 WRs and no QB, so I took Stafford first and gambled on Golladay making it through the turn. Sure enough–he takes like 25 seconds of the 30 second clock and picks Tannehill–gotcha back for CeeDee Lamb, din’t I? lol His other pick is Tyler Boyd, though, so… whew.
9.2 Kenny Golladay - Golladay in the 9th. The draft value of the year.
10.9 Mike Gesicki - I’m looking at Cousins and Gesicki here, but again I check the rosters, and turn guy has Tannehill at QB but no TE yet, so I pick Gesicki first. Sure enough–he takes like 20 seconds and settles on Gerald Everett. Tired of Axe Elf yet, sucka? And his other pick is another WR…
11.2 Kirk Cousins
12.9 Matt Ryan - At this turn, I’m looking at Ryan and Mike Williams. Turn guy has like 6 WRs now, so I take Ryan first and expect Williams to make it through the turn–but turn guy snipes me back! So I guess we’re even, 2-2. Turn guy ends up with 8 total WRs in a 17-player draft. Weird.
13.2 Evan Engram - With no other high-value targets left, I just go to the TE I was going to draft in the 14th–and then just filled out the rest of the roster.
14.9 Anthony Firkser
15.2 Amon-Ra St. Brown
16.9 Mark Ingram II
17.2 Bryan Edwards - Started to warm up to this guy late in the preseason; seems to be the guy expected to lead the Raiders in targets.

And with 24 hours to go until the season starts-- I am done drafting!

24

Wow…I thought this was going be another look at all my drafts post…wait it is. I must say I have learned a lot from your drafts and input along side each player. I’m still not giving you credit if I win…ok…maybe just a nibble…And no I’m not “that guy” who cuts the brownie’s from the center of the pan at a angle…or am I!!! Now on to the good stuff of what I’ve learned.

Roses are red…Violets are blue…Never pick a QB inside of two!

I have noticed a lot of Kirk Cousins on your rosters. I must say he way underrated and his ADP is a steal for Superflex leagues. Even though he is more valued(Inserts Sarcasm) then Cook. One thing I have never done was trust my gut with QB’s. When you said it was gonna be hard to not draft a QB first for my first 2QB league you were not lying. My finger was just twitching in the third seeing all those juicy QB’s still left. I don’t think the bowl of cinnamon toast crunch helped either. But, uhlast…you came through and gave me a good roster minus the 8th round IDP pick. But, hey we all have our flaws I guess…better then being that Justin tucker guy in the 8th…wait…that’s me.

I too had a 5th grade teacher named Mrs. Belch…and YES!..I did it…and got kicked out of class. I’m smirking as I type this. I think seeing Najee Harris still around in round 2 of drafts helped me stay on my RB-RB course. I wish I would have read more on what Damien Harris will do with cam being cut. I did put Jakobi Meyers who I think is going to ball out this season on most my rosters.

Speaking of WR’s you really helped me in the late rounds of my drafts for depths. I noticed alot of the same names on here. Robert Woods is probably my favorite player in the league right now. It’s like when Sammy Davis sat in Archies chair…You can’t get mad at him if he has a bad week because you know he will go off the next. I don’t know what it is but, I hope the Brandon Aiyuk train goes full steam this year cuz I’m all in on him. I wonder if we crossed streams when it comes to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Because I have him as the break out rookie WR of the year.

TE’s I never could understand people taking a TE in the 1-2 rounds. You basically make your self play catchup…Katchup…catsup(sorry school condiment packet flashbacks triggered me) the rest of the draft. I started targeting Tyler Higbee later in the draft depending on the other peoples picks. I noticed you have Anthony Firkser in alot of your drafts as a possible sleeper.

All in all I have learned a lot from reading your drafts and commentary even though you will notice I’m not the best when it comes to grammar and punctuation. I must say Axe’ing the Elf has helped a lot this year. As I said before “The truth is not trolling”

Thank you and my the “Brandon Hairy Asses” carry you to victory!

25

Well thanx, KPC. I’m glad all the draft analysis helped–that’s what it’s here for.

I’m not really into “rate my draft” feedback–I know how good or bad my teams are without anyone’s help. It’s just kind of fun watching a team being built, and autopsying the strategies.

And yes, you noticed a lot of the same players. The best investment strategy is a highly UNdiversified portfolio–when you are right (and I’m Axe Elf, so…).

I’ll be posting my final player frequencies in here either later tonight or tomorrow, but as a sneak preview, only 37 different players account for 80% of the 1,090 total players I drafted across 60 drafts this summer–so basically two full rosters of players account for every player on 48 of my 60 teams, if you want to look at it that way.

Hey, if the value is there every time, I take it every time.

Oh, and I axually named a team that…

BHA

26

Not to break up your personal blog here… but one Matthew Stafford injury and most of your best abll teams die.
Did you ever think of diversifying your portfolio? I purposely try to draft at least some variations in my best ball leagues.

You have a butt load of shares of Stafford and a large amount of Woods, Higbee and non-Ram C.D. Lamb.

If they have big years, you should do very well.

Sean McVay gets more credit than results these days in my humble opinion though. I was a big fan of Cam Akers, but I’m worried McVay’s left himself short at RB, even after the trade for Sony Michel and his arthritic knees. That would help you, Stafford, Woods and Higbee though.
This is the first season I haven’t gotten any Higbee, but the guy is a stud waiting to happen. McVay and staying healthy is all that’s been in his way. Higbee being the better blocker than Everett the last couple of seasons shouldn’t have garnered Everett an equal share of the TE targets - because Higbee is also a better receiver than Everett. Higbee plays soo hard, he likely won’t stay healthy if he’s in on every down. McVay needs to limit his blocking role somewhat for him to be 100% efficient as a receiver. Good luck.

27

I think this has already been adequately addressed.

28

So I drafted 1,090 players in 60 drafts this summer (an average of 18.17 players per roster), and one out of every five of them (224) is a WR named Golladay, Lamb, Aiyuk, Woods, Amon-Ra, or Cooks.

Overall, I drafted 121 different players, but only 37 unique players–those who appear on at least 10 of my teams–account for 80% (857) of all players drafted. So basically two complete 18-player rosters could account for every single player on 48 of the 60 teams I drafted. The best investment strategy is a highly UNdiversified portfolio–when you are right (and I’m Axe Elf, so…).

The distribution is so top-heavy that just the top 12 unique players–those who appear on at least half of my teams–account for 40% (436) of all players drafted.

The 37 players who account for 80% of all players drafted include 5 QBs, 13 RBs, 11 WRs, 5 TEs, 2 Ks, and 1 DST. I think the reason there is a disproportionately large number of RBs is because in snake drafts, your 1st, and to a lesser degree your 2nd and 3rd round picks, are largely dependent on your draft position–and you’re most likely taking a couple of RBs in those first three or four rounds. After the fourth round, your draft position doesn’t matter as much, because it’s more acceptable to reach half a round or more for your targets by that time. But being forced into sampling most of the 1st and 2nd round RBs at some point naturally makes that position more diverse than the others.

Here’s the list… * for guys who got hurt or cut since being drafted. (Half of them are the 20 Latavius Murray shares, so only 20 others out of 1,070 isn’t bad.)

Kenny Golladay 47
CeeDee Lamb 42
Daniel Jones 41
Brandon Aiyuk 38
Evan Engram 37
Kirk Cousins 36
Robert Woods 36
C.J. Uzomah 34
Amon-Ra St. Brown 33
Chris Carson 31
Mike Davis 31
Anthony Firkser 30
Brandin Cooks 28
Patrick Mahomes 22
Matthew Stafford 22
Mike Williams 22
Tyler Higbee 22
Damien Harris 21
Matt Ryan 20
Najee Harris 20
Raheem Mostert 20
Latavius Murray *20
Joe Mixon 17
Adam Thielen 17
Tre’Quan Smith 17
Robby Anderson 16
Derrick Henry 14
Trey Sermon 14
Marvin Jones, Jr. 14
Arizona Cardinals K 14
Aaron Jones 13
James Conner 13
Mark Ingram II 12
Nyheim Hines 12
Jared Cook 11
Minnesota Vikings K 10
Minnesota Vikings D/ST 10
Ryan Fitzpatrick 9
Ezekiel Elliott 9
Mike Gesicki 9
Tarik Cohen *8
Will Fuller 8
Robert Tonyan 8
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST 8
Saquon Barkley 6
Tyreek Hill 6
Davante Adams 6
T.Y. Hilton *6
Dalton Schultz 6
Atlanta Falcons K 6
Washington Football Team D/ST 6
New England Patriots D/ST 6
Darrell Henderson, Jr. 5
DeAndre Hopkins 5
Henry Ruggs III 5
Jonathan Taylor 4
Gus Edwards 4
Phillip Lindsay 4
Tyler Boyd 4
Jameis Winston 3
James White 3
Samaje Perine 3
Stefon Diggs 3
Terry McLaurin 3
Bryan Edwards 3
San Francisco 49ers K 3
Los Angeles Rams D/ST 3
Chicago Bears D/ST 3
Dak Prescott 2
Aaron Rodgers 2
Cam Newton *2
Travis Etienne *2
Melvin Gordon 2
Marlon Mack 2
Rashaad Penny 2
Tony Jones, Jr. 2
Justin Jefferson 2
Mike Evans 2
Gabriel Davis 2
Adam Trautman *2
Hayden Hurst 2
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST 2
Denver Broncos D/ST 2
Justin Herbert 1
Tom Brady 1
Ben Roethlisberger 1
Joe Burrow 1
Jared Goff 1
Derek Carr 1
Tyrod Taylor 1
Christian McCaffrey 1
Kareem Hunt 1
Zack Moss 1
Devin Singletary 1
Leonard Fournette 1
James Robinson 1
Tevin Coleman 1
J.D. McKissic 1
Larry Rountree III 1
Cordarrelle Patterson 1
Calvin Ridley 1
D.K. Metcalf 1
A.J. Brown 1
Diontae Johnson 1
D.J. Moore 1
DeVante Parker 1
Jakobi Meyers 1
Cole Beasley 1
A.J. Green 1
Logan Thomas 1
Chris Herndon, Jr. 1
Zach Ertz 1
O.J. Howard 1
Dallas Cowboys K 1
Pittsburgh Steelers K 1
Green Bay Packers K 1
New York Giants K 1
Cleveland Browns K 1
Denver Broncos K 1
Arizona Cardinals D/ST 1
Tennessee Titans D/ST 1
29

Oh, You must mean when I said that if Matthew Stafford gets hurt you lose all your leagues.
You’re right. I forgot you were AxeElf. Very strong argument.
Who needs facts when you can just post more often.

30

Well, just found out I can enter Yahoo’s League of Champions DFS contest, so I guess I’ll have 61 leagues this year. DFS, though, so it’s a different team every week, instead of the same team throughout the year.

Infallible as he may be in season-long fantasy strategy, Axe Elf has not mastered large DFS tournament league strategies, so this is more of an S&G thing for me–I haven’t divided all the EVs by my points per dollar and cross-referenced them against roster frequency charts or anything. I just put together the best team I could for $200.

QB Patrick Mahomes $40
RB Raheem Mostert $26
RB Najee Harris $20
WR Tyreek Hill $34
WR Adam Thielen $24
WR Brandin Cooks $18
TE Mike Gesicki $12
Flex Robby Anderson $14
DEF New England Patriots $12

31

How do you like him now?

32

Ingram put up big numbers…against 1-15 Jacksonville? I saw the game. Not impressed. The Jags gave Ingram what little he got.

The Jags are a car wreck. Somebody get the jaws of life to get Trevor Lawrence out of there!

33

Jacksonville was 0-0 at the time of the contest, same as every other team in the league.

And as I said, I drafted Ingram in the last round for his 6-8 point floor–so if he even gets half of what he got in Week 1 on an ongoing basis, he will be a successful pick for me in that regard.

Any other Round 17 RBs put up 14.5 points in Week 1? I guess maybe if you drafted Elijah Mitchell, or Ty’Son Williams (before the Gus Bus blew a tire) in the 17th… but those don’t look like stable situations for subsequent weeks.

34

6-8 point floor for an RB is roughly equivalent to Frank Gore last year, which he hit most weeks. Maybe you’re the fantasy version of Adam Gase?

35

Unfortunately, I am limited to using the 2021 player stats, so Ingram was the best I could do in the 17th for this year.

36

I remembered having Mostert and Harris at RB and Gesicki’s zero at TE, so I never really bothered to check on the Yahoo DFS League of Champions…

…and yet I’m in the top 8%–lol–top 20k out of a quarter million entries! Mahomes, Hill, Cooks and Thielen did work!

So I guess I’ll set a lineup for Week 2… especially since I’m already getting requests from my fans to post another draft result. Since I’m not doing any more drafts, per se, this will have to do…

No Mahomes available for Week 2 (guess they don’t include the night games?), so I’ll play the QB cheap this week instead…

QB: Derek Carr $21
RB: Najee Harris $25
RB Joe Mixon $24
WR: CeeDee Lamb $23
WR: Robert Woods $23
WR: Brandin Cooks $23
TE: Darren Waller $22
Flex: Corey Davis $20
DEF: New England Patriots $19

Pretty balanced overall.

37

It was a good week for Axe Elf RBs…

Chris Carson (31 shares) 15.1 PPR
Damien Harris (21 shares) 13.4
Najee Harris (20 shares) 19.1
Latavius Murray (20 shares) 9.6
Derrick Henry (14 shares) 47.7
Aaron Jones (13 shares) 41.5
Ezekiel Elliott (9 shares) 17.7

There’s 128 RBs in 60 leagues gettin’ it done!

Best supporting WRs go to…

CeeDee Lamb (42 shares) 17.4 PPR
Brandin Cooks (28 shares) 22.8
Mike Williams (22 shares) 22.1
Adam Thielen (17 shares) 15.9
Marvin Jones, Jr. (14 shares) 17.5

123 WRs in 60 leagues helpin’ their boys!

And let’s not forget the captains…

Daniel Jones (41 shares) 29.46
Kirk Cousins (36 shares) 25.26
Patrick Mahomes (20 shares) 24.02

97 QBs in 60 leagues holding up their end of the bargain!

Oh Wow, Axe Elf Was Right All Along season is in full swing!

38

Scored fewer points than I did in Week 1, but moved up to 9,069th out of 248,148–top 4%!

39

Week 3 Lineup for the DFS contest:

QB: Patrick Mahomes $38
RB: Chris Carson $26
RB: Najee Harris $19
WR: Robert Woods $25
WR: Chris Godwin $22
WR: Terry McLaurin $21
TE: Mike Gesicki $11
Flex: Mike Williams $18
DST: Arizona Cardinals $20

40

Well, whaddya know, I guess this contest only runs for three rounds and we’re done.

So Woods and McLaurin struggled, but the rest of this lineup was gold and posted a healthy 155 pts this week.

This allowed me to finish 771st out of 250,187 total entries for the contest, and I won $2.

lol

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