ECR disconnect on CMC?

Dynasty/Devy Leagues
1

Are the experts trying to have their cake and eat it too? Explain how CMC is the overall number one pick for every kind of draft, yet in rookie PPR, Chuba Hubbard is ranked the 7th best RB? If you are assuming CMC’s upside this year, there won’t be many touches left for Chuba. Or is this just a “stash on the bench” play? It’s not like Carolina is going to become a monster RBBC this year.

Honesty time: The experts KNOW that CMC’s days are numbered, but they are willing to gamble with this season not being the end of the line for CMC.

I have a rule for RB’s: I call it the “400 touch” rule. When an RB breaks down after a 400 touch season (carries plus receptions), they are usually not the same again. Terrell Davis of the Broncos managed to pull off 3-400 touch seasons, but after he broke down in 1999, he only managed an 8 game season 3 years later, before retiring. Jamal Anderson lost his mojo after just one 400 touch season. Of course there are exceptions, like Eric Dickerson, but even he never matched his best season after that.

CMC may have a half decent season, but expecting 2019 production is overly optimistic. He’s not a big back who can take another 400 touch season, or even a back running behind a monster o-line, like Emmitt Smith did.

CMC drafters: Caveat emptor.

2

Note this Sports Illustrated article on CMC: What to Expect from Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey in 2021 - Sports Illustrated Carolina Panthers News, Analysis and More

Especially this line: “If all goes well and McCaffrey plays in all 17 games, I’d say expecting 1,200-1,400 yards rushing and 400-600 yards receiving is a very realistic goal that he can reach.”

Possibly optimistic, but still not a 1.01 pick. Kamara can hit that.

3

Call this an “I told you so” bump. Now that CMC is sitting on the IR once again, this time for a simple hammy, let’s look at where the so-called experts rank him for ROS: In ECR, he is at 18th in standard, 15th in PPR, and 16th in help PPR.

If you were doing a mid-season draft, he likely wouldn’t go until the 2nd or 3rd round. Think about that: A player you drafted as THE BEST IN ALL OF FANTASY FOOTBALL is actually not even an RB1 now.

Note to @kyleyates: Remember when you said in preseason that injuries cannot be predicted? You stand corrected sir. And I even gave you the rationale for it back in June. The 400 touch rule is a harsh mistress.